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Why Frankel will rule the world

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  • #1258661
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    I wasn’t very taken by the Japanese Frankel filly. She has size and strength but something about the way she moves bothers me. More like a swimmer’s action I think and didn’t strike me as being speedy.

    I reckon Fair Eva would go past her like a sports car passing a bin lorry.

    I am surprised there have been so few Frankel runners. Maybe they are only running the good ones until the book gets filled. We know there will be moderate ones in there and also a few duffers. How many Galileo’s does Aidan start the season with and how many are average, crap or never get seen?

    Soul Stirring, only filly in the race, receiving no allowance from the colts. Thought she ran well and looked to have a little rounder knee action than most in the race.

    You can’t follow them all. I always look for good movers and this filly doesn’t do it for me.

    I find it hard to evaluate Japanese form anyway and I’m usually looking for horses for the British, Irish and French 3yo Classics, so I’ll pass on Soul Stirring.

    I think that Fair Eva could easily top 120 in the ratings this season, and all the 5/1 for the 1000 Guineas has gone. They are nibbling at the 4/1 as well. A Lowther win would see her 2/1 or less for the Guineas and I think the ground next year will be a bigger worry than any of the other fillies.

    Now that we are in August it’s running towards the time when it’s less likely that maiden winners will be capable of landing a Guineas next spring.

    I am hoping Fair Eva can give Frankel a first Classic winner at the 1st time of asking. It would be a dream start.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1258870
    Jonibake
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    So another newcomer tomorrow as Zefferino runs in the 6.40 at Newmarket. He is another trained by Roger Charlton and is out of Turama who is by Pivotal. He has been backed in from 4’s to 2-1 so someone perhaps knows something. On Saturday Majoris runs again in a nursery at Newmarket off a mark of 76. He should be up to winning that. Then San Remo, Aidan O’ Brien’s only Frankel colt, could be running at The Curragh (though he is also entered at Leopardstown next Wednesday). Still very few fillies being seen – only 4 so far – though they have a win rate of 6 out of 7 races.

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1258913
    Avatar photoTriptych
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    I could only get 7/4 about Zefferino on Paddy Power’s last night Joni, really hope he comes good tonight and looking forward to Majoris and hopefully a sight of San Remo at the Curragh.
    Just about getting my Thread updated after the holidays and it takes a little time as I am putting up the results in full also so that it makes a good reference point, lots of work but worth it. :yes:
    Come on Zefferino :yahoo: and thanks Joni for keeping us updated about the runners, they’re coming out a little faster now and how exciting it is to see that they all have Frankel’s fighting spirit..Clever boy (That’s Frankel Joni although you’re pretty smart yourself LOL) :heart: Jac

    So far backing all Frankel progeny so far this season (not including French/Japanese runners) you could be showing at least a £94.34 Profit to a £10 stake and that’s missing out on a few good prices like SENATOR 100/30 who won when I was away and I could only put him up as a 13/8 SP bet.. :good:

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #1258916
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    Jupiter Light is a non-runner and Zefferino is odds on now.

    There will be a rule 4 to early odds.

    Just 4 runners left and that’s very disappointing. The Godolphin colt is an obvious danger and arguably the value at 11/4.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1258938
    Sunspangled
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    Is it only the Queen’s runners who are allowed to beat Frankel newcomers? :-)

    #1258960
    Marginal Value
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    Frankel’s first runner in the USA is scheduled to start in the first race over eight and a half furlongs on the turf course at Saratoga tomorrow. Mrs Jerry Amerman’s home-bred colt is called Brooklyn Bobby (named after Bobby Frankel of course). His dam is Balance, a half sister to the great Zenyatta, the USA’s horse of the year in 2010.

    #1258961
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    Is it only the Queen’s runners who are allowed to beat Frankel newcomers? :-)

    Zefferino ended up a silly price. It doesn’t matter how good a horse may be in time, odds on to that extent on debut is simply abysmal value.

    I locked on to Fair Eva early doors as one who could be special and despite the number of winners, she is still the only one I see as group 1 potential from the Frankel runners thus far.

    People are entitled to their opinions and entitled to be excited but I am old fashioned and have no bias or favouritism to any trainer, jockey, sire or horse. I say it as I see it and if that doesn’t suit then so be it.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1258967
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    I don’t think Andrea Atzeni expected to see Seniority come through on the inside and got caught napping. I’ll have to watch it again but it looked like Zefferino had the two leaders cooked and Atzeni thought it was a case of point and shoot. You could see Cosgrave and Seniority building up momentum and Zefferino had to go from cruising to getting serious very quick and to his credit the horse did pick up but he never really looked like catching Haggas mount. Will be winning soon I’d have thought.

    Blackbeard to conquer the World

    #1258974
    Venusian
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    called Brooklyn Bobby (named after Bobby Frankel of course)….

    Or perhaps after Bobby Fischer.

    #1258979
    Sunspangled
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    A bit obvious and superfluous wasn’t it, and not worth drawing the attention of already very clued-up people. Since sarcasm is quoted as “the lowest form of wit but the highest form of intelligence”, then you must be one smart guy. Perhaps you could have found an alternative Brooklyn Bobby who was a bit more “pure” Brooklyn, rather than one born in Chicago and gracing the “Flatbush City Limits” in his best years.

    The infamous rapper Bobby Shmurda was born in Brooklyn :-)

    #1258998
    Jonibake
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    As only a few have run more than once it is a little early to write them off Stevie but you are entitled to be old fashioned! Haven’t seen yesterday’s yet as we are camping this weekend but sounds like he ran well enough. Fwiw I think Seven Heavens is definite group potential and who knows about the other once raced winners…..

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1259085
    Dex
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    Majoris absolutely laughed at his mark of 76, even though the class of race you can’t help but be impressed by that performance. It will be interesting to see how he copes upped in class now.

    #1259105
    TheGhostofCruella
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    Interesting to note (especially in light of the “where are all the other Frankels?” sub-discussion further up) that 3/4 brother Bullet Train had his first 2yo winner yesterday. As at 19th July (the latest article I can find that mentions numbers of runners) BT had only had two offspring to hit the track, so based on Frankel’s own 2yo racing career and his brother’s start at stud, if anything he’s the outlier in having sired a handful precocious enough to run – and win – in early June.

    #1259139
    Jonibake
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    As I have a quiet day ahead of me and for those of you who are interested, I thought I might do a little recap of where we are at the moment; my thoughts on the Frankel runners so far and predictions for the coming weeks. So, in reverse order……..

    14. Rise Eagle – we have to start with the 5 Frankel’s that haven’t won yet. This one is based in Japan and ran 5th first time out. I haven’t seen the race but according to Sunspangled he was big and awkward. Hopefully he has plenty of improvement in him.
    13. Brooklyn Bobby – there was a huge amount of hype about this one in the States on Saturday night as the first Frankel to run over there. His trainer had said BB was working well with a Grade 1 winning older horse so much was expected. He missed the break and ran very green, getting caught wide and doing his best work AFTER the line, according to reports. He only finished 6th but there is much more to come I would hope.
    12. Lightening Fast – after showing little on his debut he stepped up well to finish 2nd last week to a well touted O’Brien horse. Despite lots of Group entries, I have yet to see evidence that this one will be up to that level but he is at least heading in the right direction and should win his maiden next time.
    11. Last Kingdom – Andre Fabre has more Frankel’s than any other trainer with 12 offspring but this one is the only one seen out so far. He ran well, missing the break but finishing 2nd beaten a couple of lengths. The winner let the form down at Deauville last week but this one remains promising. Fabre is the most patient of trainers so I would expect to be seeing most of his Frankel’s coming out in Sept/Oct.
    10. Zefferino – finished 2nd on Friday at Newmarket in a muddling race where he just got done for toe. Still I think it was a very promising debut and I expect this one to make up into a good horse. He was a bit keen early on but showed a nice turn of foot. This Derby entry will, I am sure, improve as he steps up in trip as well.
    9. Cunco – on to the winners now. I am starting with this one only because he would appear to be looking exposed. He was very impressive on debut and ran well at Ascot but last time out at Newmarket was disappointing. Saying that, the first two are very smart but Cunco looked an awkward ride and he will need to get his act together if he is going to be up to winning good races. It may be that he was affected by the virus that is around Newmarket at the moment but he definitely has questions to answer. Still rated 96 so hardly a donkey!
    8. Frankuus – another who has had his limitations exposed after a promising maiden win but he is running well in decent company and I really liked the way he stayed on at Ascot last time. He looks ready-made for a step up in trip and I think could well be up to winning at listed/group 3 level over further. Also rated 96.
    7. Soul Stirring – the Japanese filly won first time of asking last week. A few things I liked about this one: 1. she was taking on colts but in Japan they all race off the same mark. 2. she was racing over 9f and doing all her best work late on. This is significant because so far we have seen pacy Frankel’s winning over 5f, 6f and 7f but this one showed that he is capable of producing decent staying types as well. In fact I think this is where Frankel’s progeny will really come into their own. We have seen already that he is capable of producing very good horses over 6f and I think he will produce good 12f ones as well, but it will be at a mile/10f where I think you will really see the big difference between Frankel and the rest.
    6. Senator – he only won a weak maiden at Leicester and the second is very exposed and ran poorly next time out, but this one looked all about the future. Beautifully bred (obviously), it took a while for the penny to drop but when it did he breezed past his rivals looking very promising. Not sure we will see the best of this one until next year but I’d be very surprised if he wasn’t group class over 7f/ a mile.
    5. Toulifaut – ran the same day as Last Kingdom and won well for Jean-Claude Rouget. Hard to know what to make of the form yet but she beat one of Andre Fabre’s and the word is that she is being aimed for the Group 1 Prix Marcel Bousssac at Longchamps in October.
    4. Majoris – would have been at the bottom of the list before Saturday but he showed big improvement winning a nursery by 7 lengths. Yes it was only a nursery and he clearly didn’t beat much but it was the manner of victory that I liked. Allowed to lead, he skipped over the quick ground and looked better the further he went. I like wide margin winners on decent ground and I think this two-time winner is definitely heading in the right direction. Hugo Palmer said he will be entered in the Royal Lodge and the Dewhurst and, whilst it is far too early to be saying he can be competitive in those races, his next outing in the Solario Stakes should tell us more.
    3. Queen Kindly – another two-time winner who ran really well at Royal Ascot. Richard Fahey was devastated that she didn’t win that day as he thinks very highly of her and blamed the slower ground. She is arguably the quickest Frankel as she has won twice over 5f and I think sprints will be her thing. Immediately after her last Catterick win Richard said she would be aimed at the Lowther next week. I haven’t heard anything to the contrary so far but he must be worried about meeting her sister in that race so it may be that she goes for something else. If not I expect her to be the main danger to the favourite especially if conditions remain fast.
    2. Seven Heavens – i loved the way this colt won first time at Ascot and the second franked (sorry) the form next time. In fact, three horses have come out of that maiden and won. He was due to run again a couple of weeks ago but didn’t go forward and I wonder if he may have been affected by the virus in Newmarket. Hopefully not and we will see him again soon. I think he has the potential to be group class.
    1. Fair Eva – no surprises here but she looks the real deal. Her maiden win might well be the best maiden form in the country this year as it has thrown up 3 winners including Miss Infinity who won a listed race at Vichy yesterday and Nations Alexander who won the Sweet Solera Stakes on Saturday. Everything about this filly is classy. I saw her at Ascot last time and she is physically impressive, very professional and very fast. She has done everything easily so far and I expect her to win the Lowther without much trouble. The big test will come after when she goes to Ireland for the Moyglare and takes on the O’Brien brigade and tackles 7f. Obviously she is favourite for the Guineas and is hugely exciting. The only worry would be the mile trip – will she be as effective? Her pedigree suggests she will be fine and she seems to look better the further she goes but we have already seen a couple of nice fillies from Ireland winning over 7f and who are definitely bred to be better over a mile. Time will tell but all is good so far.

    So that’s it for those who have run and it has been an incredible start with a remarkable strike rate and a whole host of promising horses. I am very confident that this success will continue as we start seeing the later developers come through in the last three months of the season. I know there are some who think that his numbers are a bit low so far and that maybe we are only seeing the good ones. Whilst I understand that point, I think a glance at some of Frankel’s stallion peers will tell you that you don’t need to worry. Oasis Dream has only had 10 runners so far this year, New Approach has had only 4, Sea The Stars 3, so I don’t think Frankel, with 14 worldwide and 11 in Europe compares badly and it is worth remembering that 15 of Frankel’s progeny were bred in Southern Hemisphere time. I DO think that trainers will be very patient and want to wait until they are ready to do themselves justice as these are all very expensive animals and trainers will want to show that they are capable of handling them so that they get sent more. The gallops reports from around the country are very positive and I think you will start seeing more and more from now on. I have heard good reports about all of Hugo Palmer’s, Luca Cumani has a very nice one apparently and Godolphin have changed the name of Watchman (a half brother to Dubawi) to UAE King which has to be a good sign! I hope that the Newmarket virus won’t prevent us from seeing more than we otherwise might have but there are plenty of others being trained around the country (and the world) to keep us happy.
    So far so good and, as you may be able to tell, the excitement has made one Frankel fan a happy chappy. :)

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1259280
    Jonibake
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    Latest Frankel news – Aljezeera, a filly out of Grade 1 winner Dynaforce, is entered at Donny on Saturday. She is reported to be nice. Also I saw an interview with Roger Varian today taking about his 4 Frankel’s. He said he likes them all and that they should all run this year but more likely in the Autumn.

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1259403
    Avatar photoTriptych
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    Joni .. Your post on my Thread reminded me that I wanted to say thank you for re-capping all the Frankel colts and fillies that have run so far..great labour of love and really informative and I’ve taken a copy of it for future reference.. :good:
    Love this Thread and can’t get enough of Frankel at the moment..only 5 weeks now until I see himself in the flesh at Juddmonte and keeping fingers crossed that there is no virus around that might close the studs as has happened previously..will find out more on Saturday when I go to Newmarket and let you know.. :rose: Jac

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #1259415
    Jonibake
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    Thanks for your lovely comments Jac – yes fingers crossed for you for that visit! Today we find out if Aljezeera and Frankuus run. Also Toulifaut is entered in a conditions race in Deauville on Sunday. Obviously I’d like them all to run but I can’t help feeling that Frankuus needs a step up in trip to be seen at his best.

    Yesterday saw the entries for the big two year old races in September and, as well as the usual suspects like Fair Eva, Queen Kindly, Cunco, Frankuus, Seven Heavens and Zefferino, there were entries for five new Frankel foals. Harba (ex Kirinda) is entered in the Rockfel and Cheveley Park. She is trained by Willie Haggas and owned by Al Shaqab racing and Haggas also has Yaraki (ex Superstar Leo) in the CP. Midday’s daughter Mori is also entered in the Rockfel, she is trained by Sir Michael Stoute. Apparently she is still a few weeks from making her debut but looks a nice sort (see David Milnes Twitter feed for a piccie). Eminent, trained by Martyn Meade and out of You’ll Be Mine is in the Royal Lodge along with Aidan’s San Remo.

    Hopefully this means we’ll be seeing them soon.

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

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