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Kempski would be my Wondersobright in that respect in recent times. Probably helps both our causes value-wise that neither horse belongs to especially fashionable connections.
gc
If he’s not famous, then why did Tom Lehrer write:
"I’ll go back to the Swanee,
Where pellagra makes you scrawny,
And the honeysuckle clutters up the vine.
I really am a-fixin’
To go home and start a-mixin’
Down below that Rayson-Nixon line." ?I’ll get my coat
Next week in "Permit-holders Sing Lehrer", Ted Caine gives us his rendition of the
Masochism Tango
.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Basic rule number one.
Flat is Speed. NH is not.
Speed is not easily picked up by the human eye – you need a computer with accurate standards and data which, to control, is nearly a full time job.
You will only win in NH if you horse watch and only win in Flat if you speed watch.
To speed watch you need the right data ie. split’s, fractions, finish times, accurate going descriptions.
All the things the UK powers that be don’t want anyone to have.
You will only win in NH if you horse watch and only win in Flat if you speed watch.
That is a bold statement. Surely, regardless of flat or NH racing, you win by finding horses that represent value (10-1 shots that should be 6-1). And that is no matter what class or type of race.
I think my record punting is just marginally better on the flat (or should that be marginally less bad!).
I made a profit last flat season according to my BF account, and i never use speed ratings or ‘times’ whatsoever.
Traditionalist myself – going, distance, course, recent form (horse and connections), price, handicap, jockey, gut feeling.
Just a couple of other things that make it more difficult as far as I can see.
When the All Weather started it had very little bearing on turf racing. If you wanted to you could easily ignore it. Over the last few years that has all changed with better horses running and a crossover that is now impossible to avoid.
The fact that Racing UK has Newmarket, Newbury, Goodwood and York in it’s stable is a massive problem if you don’t want to pay to watch archive races. It means you will be backing blind in many of the better races unless of course you have the time to compile your own tapes – not so easy if you are trying hold down a job at the same time.
On the fitness issue I would suggest it is far easier to give a horse an easy time in a one mile maiden on the Flat than it is in a two mile hurdle. Unless the inside money is down it is almost accepted that horses from the top stables will not be doing a great deal once they come off the bridle.
I made a profit last flat season according to my BF account, and i never use speed ratings or ‘times’ whatsoever.
Traditionalist myself – going, distance, course, recent form (horse and connections), price, handicap, jockey, gut feeling.
Same here PC,
On the fitness issue I would suggest it is far easier to give a horse an easy time in a one mile maiden on the Flat than it is in a two mile hurdle. Unless the inside money is down it is almost accepted that horses from the top stables will not be doing a great deal once they come off the bridle.
I would disagree, in a 1 mile maiden they are going a considerably faster pace, whilst 2 mile hurdles are often slow enough that they can be won by horses who were 8,9 and 10f horses on the flat, because they are effectively jogging by comarison. In a 2mile hurdle the pace is slower, yet you would see a hell of a lot more horses completely tailing off in them.
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