- This topic has 12 replies, 6 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 7 months ago by
.
- Posts
- Total Posts 17716
It will a new and pleasant thing in winter betting shops when a 25/1 which would have won doesn’t because of the whip rules.
Punters will turn to each other and say pleasantly: ‘Oh, I quite understand. I’ve lost out on 500 pounds because of the new whip rules. No, no, that’s fine. Thanks heavens we’ve corrected public perceptions. I love this sport and will continue throwing hard earned money into it. Good day to one and all.’
Or perhaps they will take the view the horse was a 25/1 shot because it is an irresolute beast, who was incapable of winning without being beaten by the whip, and which did not deserve to win on merit anyway.
There is more than one way of explaining a defeat – but then again I find that most pocket talkers whinge and blame everyone and everything else ……. except their own singular lack of judgement and greed, which is the real reason why their 25/1 shot usually turns out to be a loser.
Regrettably the new rules will become yet another arrow in the pocket talkers quiver.
- Total Posts 17716
I think you doth protest too much, Paul.
You’re saying that only chasers and hurdlers who get six or seven taps actually deserve to win. All the horses that have won with more didn’t deserve it?
I think it is you, Plenipotentiary, who doth protest too much.
Constantly, endlessly, and boringly. Please stop whinging.
- Total Posts 17716
I think my response is a fair question. Let’s see if it gets a credible answer.
Sorry, but I reserve the right to protest about racing when I feel like it.
The response to someone complaining in a betting shop about a 25/1 getting turned over?
The rest of the punters would laugh openly, or snigger depending on size and demeanour of losing punter. Schadenfreude is a prevalent trait, especially if the punter is a "bad loser". How often do you expect a 25/1 shot to actually win a race?
- Total Posts 17716
The response to someone complaining in a betting shop about a 25/1 getting turned over?
The rest of the punters would laugh openly, or snigger depending on size and demeanour of losing punter. Schadenfreude is a prevalent trait, especially if the punter is a "bad loser". How often do you expect a 25/1 shot to actually win a race?
I have no idea how much jump racing you watch but big priced horses – that is longer than 10-1 – often win races and are often in contention. Some of these animals are completely unregarded by the so-called experts who chisel a living out of tipping and talking horses. They often need a bit of getting round, I don’t mean flogged to death. Ostermeyer appears to be saying that if horse needs more than the six or seven taps then it doesn’t deserve to win. I would like him to answer that.
Take Snake Charmer, a horse I backed the other week which won at a large price. What did I see the jockey saying on ATR the following week? ‘I said get him in to a race before the whip ban comes in.’
Now, are you all experts saying that horses that may need more correction with the whip don’t deserve to win?I think these are fair points that are germane to the issue. All I see is racing anoraks trying to play the leathery old professional.
They you have me, I have watched plenty of National Hunt races but I must confess that it has limited appeal to me. Living close to and working in and around HQ, watching horses work up Warren Hill is more pleasurable to me than watching some failed flat horse at Plumpton, even if I should make money from it.
As I have said elsewhere, I think there are major safety concerns in NH racing regarding the whip issue but I do think much of the problem stems from flat bred horses being forced to jump hurdles/fences when it is not their true calling. In that respect I suppose I would say that hitting a horse x number of times to force it to jump an obstacle it has got no inclination to do is wrong.
I think you doth protest too much, Paul.
You’re saying that only chasers and hurdlers who get six or seven taps actually deserve to win. All the horses that have won with more didn’t deserve it?
I made no mention of numbers of hits and what I wrote was, I believe, quite clear and unambiguous – if you wish to twist what I wrote to suit your own ends that is, of course, your prerogative
The number of taps, as you quaintly call them, is irrelevant, but yes a horse which wins due to natural latent talent without the need for encouragement is a more worthy winner in my opinion. De facto a horse which needs to be struck more times than the whip rules allows is not therefore a worthy winner.
Lest there be any more "twisting" of what I say, whilst I generally welcome the new rules in principle, I do have some serious reservations about how they will work in NH racing.
I have no idea how much jump racing you watch but big priced horses – that is longer than 10-1 – often win races
Sorry I though this thread was about 25/1 winners – I had not realised the goalposts had suddenly moved, why the tangential switch?
To answer the point you make about watching NH racing. I watch a great deal of National hunt racing, probably around 700 races a year "live" plus probably treble that on TV and replays and I am of the view a significant minority of horses which compete in that sphere should not even be allowed near a racecourse
Over the last eight years only 3.245% of runners prices 10/1 or higher have gone on to win their race, so you are talking a small number of horses, even taking your revised 10/1 mark, for horses priced 25/1 or higher the success rate is as low as 1.13%
Ostermeyer appears to be saying that if horse needs more than the six or seven taps then it doesn’t deserve to win. I would like him to answer that.
Please – call me Paul, I don’t like standing on ceremony. I repeat I made no mention of the specific number of hits. My comment was, in any case, more an attack on pocket talkers who will use the new rules as another "excuse" for backing a loser.
Now, are you all experts saying that horses that may need more correction with the whip don’t deserve to win?
Not sure what your definition of "expert" is but yes my personal opinion, and that’s all it is an opinion, is that a horse which requires more encouragement from the whip is a less deserving winner
I hope I have now clarified my position
- Total Posts 17716
How often do you expect a 25/1 shot to actually win a race?
Ahem
Tayarat (IRE) 10-12 bt Paul Moloney M C Chapman 6 25/1
led, clear 2nd, not fluent and headed 3 out, stayed close up, edged right after 2 out, battled under pressure to lead again towards finish touched 20/1I was actually asking if you expect more than 4% of races to be won be horses of an SP of 25/1 as the proffered odds would deem to be expected.
Do you think that the number of winning 25/1 shots will be greatly different under the the new rules?
Or perhaps they will take the view the horse was a 25/1 shot because it is an irresolute beast, who was incapable of winning without being beaten by the whip, and which did not deserve to win on merit anyway.
There is more than one way of explaining a defeat – but then again I find that most pocket talkers whinge and blame everyone and everything else ……. except their own singular lack of judgement and greed, which is the real reason why their 25/1 shot usually turns out to be a loser.
Regrettably the new rules will become yet another arrow in the pocket talkers quiver.
This gave me a slight bit of faith!
At the end of the day, riding style have evolved over the years, back in the early days they used to ride at a length you’d more likely see being modeled by Carl Hester and Edward Gal these days, they used to have spurs, and if you wanted to beat something the whole way round, go for it!
It will cause a few troubles for the first season or few, and maybe will need tweaking, but I think will at the end of the day be for the greater good. For example seen a lot of people harping on about being allowed to whip into a fence, to be honest, if a horse is needing to be smacked into every fence, then it probably needs to go home and brush up on its jumping before coming to a racetrack again.
Instead of brat attacking, I see no harm in sitting back and seeing what happens, and if you’re so worried about it all, stop betting for a bit?
It will a new and pleasant thing in winter betting shops when a 25/1 which would have won doesn’t because of the whip rules.
Punters will turn to each other and say pleasantly: ‘Oh, I quite understand. I’ve lost out on 500 pounds because of the new whip rules. No, no, that’s fine. Thanks heavens we’ve corrected public perceptions. I love this sport and will continue throwing hard earned money into it. Good day to one and all.’
The punter won’t have lost out because of the new rules, but because he wasn’t diligent enough to notice the horse would need a level of driving which now falls outside the rules.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.