where there’s money there’s fiddle

[tony007]

I’de like to add another fiddle, morning prices the sp is generally better than morning prices.

[Woolf121]

What will finally convince me to give up betting is disguised form with more and more unconsidered runners romping home like champions. Bookies have seen my bets shrink in frequency and amounts over the las few months, it will soon be farewell for good.

Non triers are destroying my enjoyment of the sport and all backers will have seen their selections beaten by horses that have shown nothing on the racecourse within a relevant time span.

Call this the trainer’s fiddle if you will.

[Gingertipster]

I’de like to add another fiddle, morning prices the sp is generally better than morning prices.

Where’s the evidence for that Tony?

If by "morning prices" you mean Early Prices, then in my experience you could not be more wrong. Take a look at Oddschecker and calculate over-rounds of Best prices, it’s much better than SP’s and sometimes it’s even under-round. Enabling a punter to back every runner in a race and still make a profit! There’s never been a better time to bet at morning odds.

Over the last ten years more and more of my "investing" is at Early Prices (if not the night before).

On course /late bets / SP’s are seldom worth bothering with. SP betting is a mugs game, only a fool backs a horse without knowing what price he/she is taking; unless it’s just before the off. In my experience SP’s are more accurate these days in giving a horse’s true chance, than they were when I began betting in the 80’s. These days I tend to stop myself from backing bad drifters who go out to (what I consider) a "value" price. Because someone seems to know something about its fitness that I don’t. Unless a paddock expert, I don’t think on course markets give much of an "edge" at all.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

What will finally convince me to give up betting is disguised form with more and more unconsidered runners romping home like champions. Bookies have seen my bets shrink in frequency and amounts over the las few months, it will soon be farewell for good.

Non triers are destroying my enjoyment of the sport and all backers will have seen their selections beaten by horses that have shown nothing on the racecourse within a relevant time span.

Call this the trainer’s fiddle if you will.

There’s no evidence of that either Woolf.

Of course there are some "non-triers", but nowhere near enough to make a difference to a punter’s betting.

There are always going to be outsiders showing vastly improved form to win. But the numbers who do this (as it has always been) are in proportion to their price.

Punters who believe non-triers are the cause of their poor selections are fooling themselves. They’d just as well give up betting, because attitudes like that mean they aren’t going to get any better at gambling/investing for profit.

Take responsibility.

Value Is Everything

[tony007]

Woolfe121 I agree with your comments I often say that trainers are a bookies best friend. Gingertipster I do mean early prices in my experience all they do is shorten the prices in the morning and then the majority of the time the sp is bigger. I stand by what I say until someone proves me wrong.

[betlarge]

Interesting Ginge.

I wrote about the benefits of last minute SP betting some time ago on here and was absolutely flamed for it. In my book, it’s still the way to go.

As you imply, the SP market is the only game in town accuracy-wise and I think (no empirical evidence, mind) that it’s tightened up even more in the last 12 months or so.

As a predictor, SP is second to none, which in my opinion is not an advantage one should discard lightly.

Mike

[RedRum77]

Ginger, normally you one on here who speaks a lot of sense, but when you asked 007 (Tony) for proof of shortening up the market, wasn’t the a race yesterday at Wolverhampton were everything shorten up and nothing length. The percentage was 155 more than the grand national overround where at least you’ve got 40 horses.

[Mighty M]

The thing that I’ve noticed recently is the trend for more than one horse in a race to shorten dramatically near the off, without any degree of balancing drifting by others.

Overturn 7-2 to 7-4 was one, but the one that really got me was in Chance Du Roy’s race – Fistral Beach was 100-30 from 5s, while Osric went from 8s to 7-2!!!

The 3rd fav was well supported too, yet the longer priced horses barely moved. Seemed very strange.

[Gingertipster]

Interesting Ginge.

I wrote about the benefits of last minute SP betting some time ago on here and was absolutely flamed for it. In my book, it’s still the way to go.

As you imply, the SP market is the only game in town accuracy-wise and I think (no empirical evidence, mind) that it’s tightened up even more in the last 12 months or so.

As a predictor, SP is second to none, which in my opinion is not an advantage one should discard lightly.

Mike

Look away now Reet.

If (as we believe) SP’s are the most likely type of bet to give an accurate market Mike… Then it is the best reason to

stay well clear

of SP betting. SP’s are only an accurate estimate of true chance if you take the bookmakers mark up off all the prices.

Therefore, nobody can take "advantage" of SP’s "accuracy".

Much better to back a horse who you believe is a value price

before

it is backed in (by other knowledgeable punters) to the SP price.

eg
You can expect an SP of 3/1 to have something like a

23%

chance of winning. Any 3/1 shot should ony be backed if a punter believes it has a better than

25%

chance of winning. (because winning 25 out of 100 bets (at level stakes) breaks even).

So much better to back the 23% horse at 4/1 Early Price, before it is backed in to 3/1 SP. Backing 23% chances at 4/1 results in a profit. Backing 23% chances at 3/1 results in a loss. Of course if a punter can not get a good price about the 23% chance, he/she looks elsewhere for a bet.

Here are my results so far this jumps season (taken from my Daily Lays And Plays Thread). All I am trying to do is back horses I believe are value at time of bet.

Compare the prices I took to SP Mike.

Full Results Up To Date

2:45 Wetherby
34 points @ 5/1 (VC) Restless Harry (SP 7/2) 1st Return 204 points
9 points @ 4/1 (b365) Carlito Brigante (SP 5/1)
(43)
+161 Profit

3:20 Wetherby
38 points @ 7/2 (WH bog) Time For Rupert (SP 11/8) 2nd
14 points @ 11/4 (WH bog) Diamond Harry DNR
12 points @ 9/2 (b365) Nacarat (SP 6/1)
-64 Deficit

Days Stakes 107, Days Return 204, Days Profit 97 points

2:50 Exeter Haldon Gold Cup
41 points @ 11/4 (WH bog) Ghizao (SP 9/4)
12 points @ 12/1 (Sporting) Oiseau De Nuit (SP 16/1) 3rd
-53 Deficit

Days Stakes 53, Days Return 0, Days Deficit -53 points
Total Stakes 160, Total Return 204, Total Profit 44 points

2:20 JNWine Chase Chase Down Royal
40 points @ 11/4 (Corals) Quito De La Roque (SP 11/4) 1st Return 150 points
8 points @ 3/1 (Corals) Quito De La Roque Return 32 points
8 points @ 6/1 (PP) Midnight Chase (SP 9/2) Fell
2 points @ 6/1 (PP) Midnight Chase
12 points @ 5/1 (WH) The Nightingale (SP 4/1) 3rd
(70)
+112 Profit

3:20 Wincanton
20 points @ 9/1 (FD) Benbane Head (SP 9/1) 3rd
25 points @ 9/1 (FD) Gone To Lunch (SP 6/1)
18 points @ 12/1 (L) Checkerboard (SP 14/1)
-63 Deficit

Days Stakes 133, Return 182, Profit 49 points
Total Stakes 293, Total Return 386, Total Profit 93 points

1:45 Cheltenham
33 points @ 7/2 (B365) Crack Away Jack (SP 11/4)
-33 Deficit

Days Stakes 33, Return 0, Deficit -33 points
Total Stakes 326, Total Return 386, Total Profit 60 points

1:55 Cheltenham
16 points each way @ 12/1 (L) Hennessey (SP 8/1) PU
11 points each way @ 16/1 (VC) Hey Big Spender (SP 20/1) 4th
-54 Deficit

Paddy Power Gold Cup
28 points @ 15/2 (PP) Wishful Thinking (SP 7/2)
15 points each way (1/4 first four) @ 14/1 (SJ) Great Endeavour (SP 8/1) 1st Return 292.5 points
4 points @ 20/1 (betfair) Aralder (SP 12/1)
3 points @ 25/1 (betfair) Tullamore Dew (SP 20/1) Fell
1 point @ 74/1 Holmwood Legend (SP 33/1)
13 points @ 5/1 (L) Mon Parrain (SP 9/2)
(79)
+213.5 Profit

4:10 Cheltenham
25 points @ 15/8 (VC) Restless Harry SP 5/4) 3rd
32 points @ 4/1 (WH) Saint Are (SP 7/2)
-57 Deficit

Days Stakes 190, Return 292.5, Profit 102.5 points
Total Stakes 516, Total Return 678.5, Total Profit 162.5 points

1:45 Cheltenham
80 points @ 10/11 (WH) Woolcombe Folly (11/10) 2nd

2:20 Cheltenham
33 points @ 5/1 (WH) Pateese (SP 9/2)
23 points @ 15/2 (SJ) Moon Dice (SP 11/2) 4th
10 points @ 35/1 (betfair) Abergavenny (SP 28/1) 3rd
-66 Deficit

Days Stakes 146, Return 0, Deficit -146 points
Total Stakes 662, Total Return 678.5, Total Profit 16.5 points

3:20 Ascot
24 points each way @ 15/2 (VC) Prophete De Guye (SP 8/1 bog) 1st Return 278.4 points
(48)
+230.4 Profit

3:55 Ascot
19 points each way @ 7/1 (SJ) Featherbed Lane (SP 4/1) 1st Return 197.6 points
(38)
+159.6 Profit

Days Stakes 86, Return 476, Profit 390 points
Total Stakes 748, Total Return 1154.5, Total Profit 406.5 points

2:10 Ascot Amlin Chase
31 points @ 8/1 (WH) Kalahari King (SP 15/2) PU
13 points @ 5/2 (BSQ) Somersby (SP 2/1) 2nd
-44 Deficit

2:45 Ascot Coral Hurdle
54 points @ 3/1 (L) Overturn (SP 5/2) 1st Return 216 points
+162 Profit

3:05 Haydock Betfair Chase
25 points @ 6/1 (L) Diamond Harry (SP 7/2)
22 points @ 9/1 (C) Time For Rupert (SP 6/1)
-47 Deficit

Days Stakes 145, Return 216, Profit 71 points
Total Stakes 893, Total Return 1370.5, Total Profit 477.5 points

12:30 Newbury
45 points @ 3/1 (betfair) Kentford Grey Lady (SP 15/8) 1st Return 180 points
22 points @ 2.05/1 (betfair) Tempest River (SP 2/1)
(67)
+113 Profit

2:45 Newbury
24 points @ 11/1 (L) Buffalo Bob (SP 15/2) 3rd
23 points @ 15/2 (b365) Zarrafakt (SP 5/1) 2nd
12 points @ 5.6/1 (betfair) That’lldoboy (SP 5/1) 1st Return 79.2 points
10 points @ 7/1 (b365) Rackham Lerouge (SP 8/1)
8 points @ 8.4/1 (betfair) Quocotiep (SP 16/1)
11 points @ 6.4/1 (betfair) That’lldoboy Return 81.4 points
(88)
+72.6 Profit

Days Stakes 155, Return 340.6, Profit 185.6 points
Total Stakes 1048, Total Return 1711.1, Total Profit 663.1 points

1:00 Newbury
21 points each way @ 8/1 (L) Urbain De Sivola (SP 7/2) 1st Return 243.6 points
(42)
+201.6 Profit

1:35 Newbury
19 points @ 6/1 (bet365) Spirit River (SP 9/2)
12 points @ 9/4 (VC) Cue Card (SP 2/1) 2nd
8 points @ 6/1 (VC) Spirit River
-39 Deficit

2:10 Newbury
22 points each way @ 5/1 (VC) Silver Roque (SP 9/2) 3rd Return 44 points
(44)
0 profit

3:15 Newbury
45 points @ 3/1 (PP) Rileyev (SP 3/1) 1st Return 180 points
15 points @ 7/2 (PP) Hold Fast (SP 7/2)
6 points @ 10/1 (PP) Oh Crick (SP 8/1) 3rd
(66)
+114 Profit

Days Stakes 191, Return 467.6, Profit 276.6 points
Total Stakes 1239, Total Return 2178.7, Total Profit 939.7 points

2:05 Newbury (Gerry Fielden)
34 points @ 8.8/1 (betfair) Raya Star (SP 12/1) 3rd
22 points @ 16.5/1 (betfair) Rebel Dancer (SP 14/1)
16 points @ 9/4 (BSQ) Empire Levant (SP 2/1) 2nd
10 points @ 11/2 (VC) Dream Function (SP 9/2)
-82 Deficit

2:35 Newbury (Long Distance Hurdle)
14 points each way @ 16/1 (VC) Pettifour (SP 10/1) 3rd
-28 Deficit

2:20 Newcastle Fighting Fifth Hurdle
50 points @ 7/2 (WH, nrnb) Overturn (SP 7/4) 1st Return 225 points
+175 Profit

3:10 Newbury Hennessey Gold Cup
38 points @ 8/1 (VC) Great Endeavour (SP 5/1) 4th
26 points @ 10/1 (WH) Wayward Prince (SP 6/1) PU
-64 Deficit

3:45 Newbury
25 points @ 10/1 (VC) Persian Gates (SP 8/1)
33 points @ 5/1 (WH) Coup Royale (SP 7/2) PU
3 points @ 22/1 (betfair) Edgebriar (SP 14/1)
8 points @ 8/1 (PP) Hector’s Choice (SP 7/1) 3rd
-69 Deficit

Days Stakes 293, Return 225, Deficit -68 points
Total Stakes 1532, Total Return 2403.7, Total Profit 871.7 points (56.9% on stakes)
11 wins in 27 races, Strike Rate 40.7%

In most cases I’ve beaten SP’s, in many cases significantly so.

SP’s are NOT the "only game in town" accuracy wise Mike. Try making your own book.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Ginger, normally you one on here who speaks a lot of sense, but when you asked 007 (Tony) for proof of shortening up the market, wasn’t the a race yesterday at Wolverhampton were everything shorten up and nothing length. The percentage was 155 more than the grand national overround where at least you’ve got 40 horses.

Think you’ve misunderstood RR.

I’m certainly not defending SP’s. They’ve got progressively worse, with bigger and bigger over-rounds.

In almost all races these days there’s a shortening up of almost every price in the last five minutes before the off. With very few (if any) lengthening.

I asked Tony of proof of his assertion that SP’s were better than morning prices. Clearly they are not.

Value Is Everything

[Anonymous]

Ginger

These days I tend to stop myself from backing bad drifters who go out to (what I consider) a "value" price. Because someone seems to know something about its fitness that I don’t.

Of course there are some "non-triers", but nowhere near enough to make a difference to a punter’s betting.

If you can’t see the contradiction in those 2 quotes, I’m sure plenty of others can.

[Gingertipster]

Ginger

These days I tend to stop myself from backing bad drifters who go out to (what I consider) a "value" price. Because someone seems to know something about its fitness that I don’t.

Of course there are some "non-triers", but nowhere near enough to make a difference to a punter’s betting.

If you can’t see the contradiction in those 2 quotes, I’m sure plenty of others can.

There is no implication in any wrong doing in that first quote Reet.

Just because the horse is not quite as fit as it could be, doesn’t mean it is not trying to win.

Long Run was not fully fit for the Betfair Chase, doesn’t mean to say he wasn’t "trying".

Value Is Everything

[betlarge]

Try making your own book.

Well I did and I do (in a manner of speaking). I don’t price up an entire race any more as I found out that I was not skilful enough to do this successfully and as I analyse racing in the mornings only, I just wasn’t ready to take the earliest offers. If I do miss out on a percentage, then it’s the price I pay for doing my homework properly.

I will have a price in mind for all of my selections but if the SP market is telling very positive/negative things, I will be moderately flexible. The ability in recent years to bet at Betfair SP has basically become make or break for me.

Don’t get me wrong – your ‘Value is Everything’ moniker is totally unarguable. If you back horses at prices greater than that which reflects their true chance then obviously you

have

to make a profit. That’s not an opinion, it’s basic mathematics.

However, I have to defer to knowledge superior to my own, and I have spent many an occasion sniping the 14-1 on my ‘true’ 10-1 shot only to see it slide to 16-1, 20-1, whatever, at SP. How the hell do you give that an accurate percentage chance now?

The SP market provides my most easily-accessible accurate representation of chance. Is it value betting or mug betting? Well, probably neither to be honest. But anyone who is in front is getting ‘value’ whether they are searching for it or not. Just look in the top-right of your Betfair screen and it’ll tell you exactly how much of a mug you are. Or not.

Mike

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