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What have we learnt from this year's Festival?

Home Forums Archive Topics Cheltenham Archive Cheltenham 2016 What have we learnt from this year's Festival?

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 34 total)
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  • #1238614
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 34708

    Bit early I know, but…

    This year has well and truly shown:

    We don’t need a Ryanair Chase, it only takes away from other races. First three home were all going for the “Gold Cup” last week. :lol: Fourth was considered for it too. Now we have a 9 runner Gold Cup, with 3 no-hopers.

    There are not enough top class mares to produce competitive mares races and top mares are capable of enhancing (and sometimes winning) the Championship races when given the chance to do so. Without both Faugheen’s injury (and Arctic Fire’s) and Mullins/Ricci having a Mares Hurdle replacement in Vroum Vroum Mag – we would not have had the chance to enjoy Annie Power in the Champion… And Vroum Vroum’s defection from the World Hurdle robbed us of (the second fav) a more competitive race there too. Limini could easily have enhanced one of the other novice races.

    Four Championship Novices for Chasers and three Hurdles is too many, it just enables the best horses to avoid each other.
    Was there one Novice we knew the target for all season?

    We could easily reduce Cheltenham to three days and have far more competitive – which means fewer short priced favourites and bigger priced winners – and closer, more enjoyable racing.

    Value Is Everything
    #1238616
    Avatar photobefair
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    • Total Posts 2212

    Right on the button Ginger; the 4th day has bloated the festival, reducing the competitiveness and making the ante-post speculation sometimes pointless. I do have some sympathy for the mares races , in making it more attractive to keep mares in training, and the 4-yr old handicap hurdle has made the 4-yr old a truer test + less of a lottery.
    In particular the Ryanair is a disaster; as well as this years debacle, last yrs winner Uxizandre, would possible have won the 2-mile championship if he’d contested it. The 3 mile novice hurdle, the cross-country, the mares novice hurdle, the JLT, the Ryanair, could all be cut

    #1238618
    Avatar photoGladiateur
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    • Total Posts 5804

    Wait until it’s NRNB if you’re thinking of backing a Mullins horse.

    #1238631
    moehat
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    • Total Posts 9893

    Good, sensible analysis Ginge. Totally agree.

    #1238639
    TimJames
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    • Total Posts 313

    Take even less notice of what jockeys and trainers have to say than I usually do.

    #1238640
    Avatar photoisinglass
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    • Total Posts 459

    Spot on – it’s like the “emperor’s new clothes”, some greedy idiot has a bright idea and those that should know better don’t bother to say it’s obvious nonsense.

    Now it’s 4 days it’ll never go back to 3 though will it – that’d be an admission of a mistake.

    Same happened with the Ebor festival. Three days of good racing with a few “fillers” in amongst the star races then…………. lets add another day and dilute the whole meeting.

    Rant over.
    I.

    #1238645
    Slowly Away
    Participant
    • Total Posts 411

    I was a bit ‘don’t care’ about the dilution of races until we had that JLT (Grade 1) Novice Chase yesterday……..for some reason I’ve always thought that was a handicap

    It’s getting to be like Swimming with Gold Medals for 100 yards, 110 yards, 120 yards, 130 yards and so on……..

    Actually as posted on another thread I’m getting a bit bored with the Festival meeting now……..I haven’t watched any of the racing channel previews or the hours of daily build up. In fact I’ve been watching the cricket all week and just flicking over at race times……..and I’ve been ignoring the last couple of races each day which are usually handicaps or bumpers and I’m not that fussed about missing the handicaps altogether

    I haven’t a bet all week either

    #1238663
    thewexfordman
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    • Total Posts 1200

    We have learned that the Ryanair Chase is most definately not needed. If your a trainer who thinks your horse is only a 2.5 miler then let it run in the handicap. I do agree that the Ryanair Chase is unnecessary. Perhaps something like a veteran’s chase instead? Just an idea. Any good 10 yr olds will still go either champion Chase or gold cup, while the likes of the giant bolster, somersby, on his own etc could make for a very intriguing race.
    I think however that the Albert Bartlett is a good competitive race. The world hurdle division is awful and there needs to be a stepping stone race for staying hurdlers. Perhaps a bonus for a horse that can win the Albert Bartlett and world hurdle in consecutive years to encourage some stayers to stick hurdling for a while longer to make the world hurdle division more competitive.
    I would keep the New mares novice race but get rid of the senior mares race. Any good mares like Annie Power, vvm etc would be able to compete in open company. I think the New mares novice is good to help bring along more mares at a younger age and let them develop rather than being thrown into open company straight away.
    Ante post betting is a bookmakers paradise, always was and always will be. It’s such a high level of risk for a punter. Just wait till nrnb. I know the odds aren’t as good but the high risk isn’t there.

    #1238680
    apracing
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    • Total Posts 3952

    That Robbie Supple should never again be allowed anywhere near the starters podium at a major race meeting. It’s quite plain that, unlike the much better starters relegated to tightening girths and waving a whip at the rear, he isn’t respected or liked by the jockeys and lacks the personality to impose his will on them.

    His failure to produce a clean start for a nine runner race was shameful.

    #1238703
    mellington
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    • Total Posts 21

    Never listen to a word said by any trainer or jockey at a preview night. Also letting your heart rule you head can work.

    #1238707
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 33913

    Wait until it’s NRNB if you’re thinking of backing a Mullins horse.

    I think the bookies, will not take much ante post money next year, with the merry go round and Faugheen not turning.
    However this could encourage them to dangle a bigger carrot which could be to our advantage.

    Charles Darwin to conquer the World

    #1238713
    LD73
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    • Total Posts 3839

    Whilst I agree that the additional day wasn’t warranted if we were still having a three day festival we still wouldn’t have had Vautour lining up in a GC, as he would have done the Arkle/QMCC double (and yes as much as I loved Sprinter’s victory, he would have got the exact same treatment as yesterday’s Ryanair runners).

    Also Quevega would have gone head to head with BIg Bucks several times in the World Hurdle (what a series of races they would have been – btw can we now go back to it being called the Stayers Hurdle….please) and likely that Annie Power would have missed the Festival altogether and run up a sequence in the Aintree Hurdle over her favoured distance of 2m4f. No idea what they would have done with Vroum Vroum Mag………RSA maybe?

    The Supreme, Neptune and Triumph would be oversubscribed and have a maximum sized field (half of which woiuld no doubt be made up of Mullins horses) maybe they would have had to change the conditions of those races that meant you would have had to achieved a certain rating before qualifying for it. Whilst it is not everyone’s cup of tea, I think there is certainly a place for the cross country race to be at the festival.

    Ante post betting in its pure form is slowly dying a death and whilst it is a bit of a stab in the dark trying to guess what Mullins horse turns up for what particular race taking NRNB is the way to go, yes you will not get the value price wise but that protection is there.

    Mullins to some extent is now a victim of his own success – one trainer bringing 60+ horses to the festival is just mind boggling as back in the day that number probably would have been the total number of Irish horses running.

    #1238854
    pilgarlic
    Participant
    • Total Posts 865

    Move it forward a week. Rein the whole thing in and get rid of handicaps.Get the ground/ drainage right, Animal Aid will be thrilled that we`ve had such a terrible few days for fatal injuries. Some fences are poorly sited, the one on the new course before the descent has long been known to be trappy

    #1238857
    Avatar photoViltash
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    • Total Posts 192

    There must be serious thoughts for a 5th day.
    They could make up some balls race like the greys only hcp hurdle.

    #1238867
    mulls74
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    • Total Posts 149

    While the Festival will never go back to three days, there’s no reason why it can’t be four six-race cards, which would go some way to addressing the issues raised above.
    The racing today felt of a lower quality – Gold Cup aside – than you would expect from the Festival. It might be an idea to move the Arkle to Friday as day one would hold up well enough without it.

    #1238873
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 6252

    I’d be all for returning to three days, but that will never happen. Ryanair wrecked me betwise this year, but I’ve liked the race since its inception; it’s produced some great finishes and I’ve won a few quid on it so would feel a bit hypocritical wanting it blown out now.

    I think the biggest change you’ll see is the way bookmakers treat this meeting. Their crazy offers to acquire customers make no financial sense, and those customers will often win off them anyway.

    The concentration and quality of the Mullins and Elliott strings allows them to fine tune more every year. They know what can beat what at home, they have plenty races to choose from and their teams will only make it harder for bookies each passing year.

    Even in handicap races, all trainers know exactly what is needed by way of horse quality and approach, and the days of regular big priced festival winners (20/1 +) are largely over imo. BTW for all the talent of the big guns, arguably the training performance of the meeting was Dan Skelton with his County winner which got in at 25 of 26 trained to the minute on ground Skelton knew he was very likely to get.

    I noted Hills and Ladbrokes were very late going NRNB and neither had any crazy promos (Lord knows what Skybet’s money back on all losers for the first race each day cost them). I think the rest of the betting industry will need to take a realistic view of their prospects of making money at Cheltenham: the programme, big-money owners and shrewd trainers are ripping them to pieces and will carry on refining their art.

    I’m told the ante-post markets are not great money makers at all for bookies. This year they’ve done well, but normally they are wary. Still, they won’t have to worry much longer. If you had to draw up a model of the classic festival ante-post punter it would come out looking a lot like me. It’s been the major target of my betting for decades, and I have done all right out of it without winning fortunes. But I’m finished with it now.

    #1238875
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 6252

    Deleted double post

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