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I had a dream that Frankel won the Sussex stakes by 5 lengths against Canford Cliffs the night before the race and still bet me old mate Canford…
Blackbeard to conquer the World
I don’t recall Marie Denise but do remember Spanish Steps Joe.
It’s pretty rare that I dream about horses but teens of years ago I had a dream about a sprint race on the flat where the 1-2 were in the same racing colours. In pre-internet days for us and with no racing papers I didn’t see the colours of the runners on that Saturday. Fast forward to the afternoon and my Wife tells me there are two runners in the upcoming race at York in the same purple colours. I called my local bookies but the phone was engaged solid until off time and I never got my reverse forecast bet on. As expected the two purple cuddies come sailing in first and second at 10/1 and 13/2, Juwwi and Salviati, both trained by Milton Bradley.
Unlike the horses in purple, the air was blue as my tip from the subconscious world went un-backed.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bf3PwWHAJAQ
..song about someone dreaming of the winner of a race….A interesting stat I noticed when analysing the trends for the race…
All of the last 10 winners have been aged 6yo-8yo.
The race also seems to suit horses that are in form with 9 of the last 10 winners having finished in the first 4 in their previous race. Using this and the above age trend, it leaves 8 runners at the 5 day stage…
Gas Line Boy 14/1
Benvolio 12/1
Emperor´s Choice 25/1
Amigo 14/1
Woodford County 33/1
Handy Andy 33/1
Global Power 25/1
Copper Birch 66/1The highest SP in the last 10 years has been 20/1 and 8 of the 10 were carrying a weight 15lbs-26lbs lower than the top weighted horse. If Shotgun Paddy stays in and taking the odds into account as well, it leaves (based on current entries and prices)…
Amigo – Trained by David Pipe who has a great record at Chepstow with a strike rate of 26% over the last 5 years. 2nd at the course 3 weeks ago, 7th in this race last year and winner of a Hurdle race is his only other run at the course.
I think he’s a good thing if he stays in the line up.
Good luck !!
This drying ground will potentially make it a slightly different Welsh National to usual. I’ve been watching Tour Des Champs for a while and he looks increasingly well handicapped. Will defo have a little ew.
I’ll take a chance on
Benvolio
. Beat a couple decent types last season as a novice and many behind him last year have gone on to frank the form. Nichols is sending out plenty of winners and the way this one was staying on last time out in the Badger Ales suggests to me he’ll get the trip.
See if
Benbens
can make up for coming down in the Becher as my back up.
The ground is soft and there was rain forecast for today. It looks sure to be a slog and I am hoping that it will suit Gas Line Boy.
The Hobbs horse isn’t a strong fancy for me but I feel he’s probably a bit overlooked here and I wouldn’t want to be backing anything at a single figure price in such an open affair as this.
16/1 Gas Line Boy and 20/1 Benbens were my two against the field and there’s been a little bit of money for both of them. I can see Benbens being popular tomorrow and I would take 14/1 in anticipation of further contraction in price.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m very sweet on the other Hobbs horse, even to the point of doubling up my usual bet and putting all of £1 on him
[along with Summery Justice although that wasn’t £1].The Venetia Williams pair backed up by Hawkes Point would be my three against the field.
Finally decided on Benbens for this race. Hoping the lowish weight with the 5lb claimer will pull this horse through in what is certain to be a severe test of stamina.
I’ve also backed Handy Andy, Rebeccas Choice and Emperors Choice. Pleased with the price I got for Woodford County, though. Would love to see Liam win on Summery Justice, though. He doesn’t get the credit he deserves in these staying chases.
Midnight Prayer is a hugely significant non-runner. I’m glad I got on with NRNB terms and hope ‘heat in the leg’ is not a serious problem that will keep him out for a long time.
So happy he won it but 2out when he faded did not think he get back up.So glad he did
Just about covered my bets of the last two days with about 50 pence profit
Of my 5, 4 of them finished the race, which I’m quite pleased about but annoyed that I didn’t back the Irish horse as I always like to back the bottom weight in these races. Having said that, apart from having form on heavy ground there wasn’t a lot to recommend him. Still very much a stats race with younger, lower weighted horses doing well.
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