Lonsdale Stakes 2009

[Gingertipster]

What a poor race this is.

Of the six runners only Drill Sergeant ran to form last time, and he is not certain to stay the trip.

Askar Tau ran poorly, beaten a long way out in the Goodwood Cup on reappearance. Was there that day, and to my mind it was more temperament than fitness the problem. Also gelded over winter. Now has a first time visor, but would not be sure it will do the trick.

Enroller ran in the same race and barely did any better. Despite having some give in the ground which suited him, was beaten on the turn. Long way below form. Stable now in good nick, but improvement last year came with cut. Times today suggest the ground is firm.

Royal And Regal finished last and possibly injured. Has had a long time to get over that, but is another one unlikely to be favoured by a fast surface. Saw him on reappearance at Newbury, did not look as enthusiastic as last year either.

The other two, Baddam and Macorville should not be anywhere near good enough if any of the others run well.

If Royal And Regal who can front run, runs (could be a non-runner); think Drill Sergeant may not stay. But having said that, with problems about the others. The Johnston horse looks the best bet to me (if there is one).

Value Is Everything

[Zarkava]

Johnston before today is 4/86 at the Ebor meet I believe.

Surely Aksar Tau is the one to beat after he blew away the cobwebs at Goodwood? I love Enroller to pieces but he’s becoming expensive to follow.

[Gingertipster]

I agree that Askar Tau should be the one to beat, if he puts it all in; but from what I saw at Goodwood that is a big IF. Might have a saver on him later, if they all stand their ground and he remains a similar price to now.

Johnston is not in quite the same form now as he was a week or so ago (anywhere, not just York). But older horses tend to keep their form in such circumstances, more than three or two year olds.

Value Is Everything

[tenbob]

my points system

141 royal and regal
140 drill sergeant
138 enroller
134 askar tau
130 baddam
129 macorville

will back royal and regal

[Zarkava]

Askar Tau does have the first time visor to sort him out a bit now but I’d like to think that he’s on at least a par with Enroller now purely on fitness.

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