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A visually stunning performance from Treve and she was travelling like a winner from quite a long way out as far as I was concerned. The best female of all time? I think it’s too early to say and I have to disagree with many about the strength of this year’s field. Mick Fitzgerald declared that the form was "Rack Salad" but I questioned beforehand how good Ruler Of The World, Leading Light, Al Kazeem and Flintshire really were and none of them did anything to make me change my view. This year’s Epsom Derby was given a lukewarm rating by the handicapper and The St Leger has never been a pointer to the Arc. Al Kazeem has had some tough wins this year, was probably lucky to bump into a sick The Fugue and then showed his limitations thereafter. It was asking a hell of a lot to have such a busy campaign at 10f and then step up in the Arc against rivals who were a lot fresher. As far as Flintshire goes, I must be missing something. A Grand Prix de Paris win, with a very disappointing Battle Of Marengo as second favourite, and the touted but now exposed as moderate, Ocovango in opposition was his best form and it was sheer hype and connections that had punters purring about his prospects. He’s a horse with much to prove still.
Getting to the race itself, Intello ran much better than I had expected but that has to be tempered a little by how many of the field who were disappointing on the day. Orfevre was supposed to be facing a much stronger field but still saw most of these "Rack Salad" horses off readily enough. Perhaps I am being hard on Leading Light but he looked devoid of pace and many a time jockeys get flak when the fact is that the horse can’t take them where they want to be and the Leger winner was a big lay for me, owing his position to being from a stable who had two 50/1 crocks in the race right up until the 11th hour.
Treve is an exciting horse for next year if holding her form and I’d rather wait to see how those who were behind her perform next year before agreeing that:-
"That’s why we’re Salad, Salad as a Rack"
Steve,
Why should the failure of all of those horses you mention above matter to the standard of performance put up by Treve?In any race (whether Group 1 or Class 6) only a certain number of horses ever produce their form on the day.
As I said earlier…
"Flintshire and Ruler Of The World and Al Kazeem do not need to have produced their best – for the winner’s performance to be rated exceptional. I’d estimate the two Japanese horses ran to form, both Intello and Penglai Pavillion improved a little, Going Somewhere probably ran somewhere near his best".So only 6 horses, around 35% of the field ran to form. Had Treve just scraped home by a nose from Orfevre – she’d have only been an average Arc winner, but she won by 5 lengths (well, that was the official distance).
The important thing when assessing the merit of the Arc form is did Orfevre run to form or not?
If yes, and he’s beaten 5 lengths in a race where 5 others also run to form… However many horses we would like to think of as putting in a good run… It is exactly the same standard of performance as when Orfevre runs to form, beaten 5 lengths and either only 2 or more than 10 horses run to form.
Value Is EverythingI agree with GT.
All in my opinion:
Orfevre is an exceptional horse and I think he ran to form as an Arc RU. The ‘Little Magician’ (not known for unnecessary superlatives to say the least, so I listen when he talks) also classed Intello as "Out of the ordinary".
I think these two ran as well as they could. Treve absolutely thrashed them 5L and it could have been probably double that. That’s remarkable.
I don’t follow Flat racing anywhere nearly as avidly as you guys. The only horse I’d been watching really closely this season was one I thought overrated going into the race – Al Kazeem.
But I don’t think you need always narrow everything down to form. Treve was unbeaten and could, therefore, have been anything. She’d had just 4 previous races (how does that compare with past Arc winners?). As many have mentioned, she hardly got the run of the race. A very telling point for me was that she put the race to bed so quickly against top class opponents.
Running down a pack that has travelled hard – as Dancing Brave did – always looks more dramatic, but to come clear of a field, many of whom would have had plenty left in the tank strikes me as a more difficult thing to do.
Anyway, she stays in training next year, and I’m off to find out if Boyles still offer 5/1! I’ll leave you with Timeform’s summary:
The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe has witnessed a number of stellar performances down the years, the likes of Ribot (1956), Sea-Bird (1965), Mill Reef (1971) and Dancing Brave (1986) all posting ratings of 140 or higher for their victories, and though some way off that level, a rating of 134 for Treve is the highest figure awarded to a filly or mare for winning the race in over sixty years, superior to the likes of Allez France (132, 1974), Three Troikas (133, 1979), and more recently Zarkava (130, 2008) and Danedream (132, 2011) and behind only the 1949 winner Coronation (135).
Although her career only stretches to five races so far, Treve has already done enough to be considered one of the all-time greats among her own sex, and it is to be hoped she can enhance her reputation further as a four-year-old if kept in training, which seems likely at this stag
e
Boylesports, surprisingly, still offer 4/1 Treve for 2014. If you don’t mind tying up your cash for a year and taking the normal AP risks, I think that’s great value. If she turns up fit and well, she is likely to be odds-on imo.
Here’s the BHA handicapper’s take on her victory:
Now unbeaten in five starts, Treve is most certainly a worthy winner and with a pencilled-in figure of 129 I rank her on a par with Danedream. The World Rankings Committee has still to arrive at a final figure and several members have proposed 130, which would make Treve the highest rated Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner since Sea The Stars in 2009.
Treve’s winning margin was a smooth five lengths, which I have called 8lb. Taking away the 3lb fillies’ allowance, that makes her 5lb superior to Orfevre, who we in Britain had producing a number of 124 performances going into the race. Not only does that fit but Intello, a neck behind Orfevre, could be 123 on his third in the Marois in August. Two lengths further back, Kizuna on 120 is also a decent fit, as he beat Ruler of The World by a short head in the Niel. We have a figure of 120 for Ruler of The World in the Derby, albeit a Derby which is not really working out, Ruler of The World could finish only seventh on this occasion.
The disappointment of the race was arguably Flintshire, who turned heads with his victory in the Grand Prix de Paris in July but failed to fire in the Niel and now the Arc. Leading Light, perhaps unsurprisingly on form, failed to make much impact too, though he had a rather torrid time of things in terms of getting a clear run in the straight and this effort is worth forgiving.
In any case a truly great racehorse doesn’t need another horse to do the "work" for them, since they ought to be able to adapt their running style to fit the shape of the race
I suppose that rules Frankel out as being a truly great racehorse then as Bullet Train done the work for him?
Frankel didn’t get Bullet Train until the fall of his 3yo year. He could just as easily go wire-to-wire (2000 Guineas) as press the pace.
Steve,
Why should the failure of all of those horses you mention above matter to the standard of performance put up by Treve?You are free to be as impressed as you wish to be. I am trying to look at how strong a race it actually was. There was a murmuring about this year’s race being an exceptional renewal, perhaps on a par with Dancing Brave’s year. Despite a handful of horses who were
potential
stars earlier in the season, several of those contenders were coming into the race on the back of disappointments. Despite there being tips around for Leading Light, Flintshire, Ruler Of The World and Al Kazeem I predicted that none of them would be involved and so it proved.
Did Orfevre run to form? He certainly saw off many of the overrated ones listed above but he didn’t have a lot to spare on Intello who he seemed to take a fair while to outstay in the closing stages. Orfevre himself was touted as bad value, having thrown away a dog of an Arc last year, yet now he is being held up as proof that the form is "Rack Salad"
I am not a numbers man. I don’t need to see someone produce an "Official" rating, a time, or quote some pundit (who obviously is bound to be more expert than myself) in order to "prove" a point.
If you wish to hang the "greatest ever" medal around Treve’s neck then carry on. I’ll hang fire for now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve,
Why should the failure of all of those horses you mention above matter to the standard of performance put up by Treve?You are free to be as impressed as you wish to be. I am trying to look at how strong a race it actually was. There was a murmuring about this year’s race being an exceptional renewal, perhaps on a par with Dancing Brave’s year. Despite a handful of horses who were
potential
stars earlier in the season, several of those contenders were coming into the race on the back of disappointments. Despite there being tips around for Leading Light, Flintshire, Ruler Of The World and Al Kazeem I predicted that none of them would be involved and so it proved.
Did Orfevre run to form? He certainly saw off many of the overrated ones listed above but he didn’t have a lot to spare on Intello who he seemed to take a fair while to outstay in the closing stages. Orfevre himself was touted as bad value, having thrown away a dog of an Arc last year, yet now he is being held up as proof that the form is "Rack Salad"
I am not a numbers man. I don’t need to see someone produce an "Official" rating, a time, or quote some pundit (who obviously is bound to be more expert than myself) in order to "prove" a point.
If you wish to hang the "greatest ever" medal around Treve’s neck then carry on. I’ll hang fire for now.
I too refuse to put the best ever on any horse because of one performance….
That said, I have never seen a great performance that wasn’t followed thick and heavy by the doubters. L
The bare facts are that she didn’t get the run of the race, still won comfortably and the four horses that followed her home give the form a pretty rock solid look to me.On that day under those conditions, she deserves all the plaudits she gets although firm ground, fast pace and other champions will offer different challenges in future.
SHL
Yes, he has an Irish accent. Mind you, he is Irish.
Mr Fitzgerald’s accent might get him into deep trouble one day.
I have visions of him with his wife going on a relaxing country walk when they encounter a fine looking horse accompanied by a female rider wearing skintight jodphurs. Mr Fitz then says "Hey lok. Shiz got a lovlee harse"
I too refuse to put the best ever on any horse because of one performance….
That said, I have never seen a great performance that wasn’t followed thick and heavy by the doubters. L
The bare facts are that she didn’t get the run of the race, still won comfortably and the four horses that followed her home give the form a pretty rock solid look to me.On that day under those conditions, she deserves all the plaudits she gets although firm ground, fast pace and other champions will offer different challenges in future.
She’s an exceptional horse on this performance but we are talking all time in this thread and I can’t get away from thinking that, if you take her out of the race and leave Orferve winning fairly narrowly from Intello and making heavy-ish weather of doing so, people would have been much more likely to crab the form and question whether the race really was so much stronger than the previous incarnation.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Why would Orfevre winning narrowly from the French Guineas and Derby winner mean the form would be crabbed Steve?
Steve,
Why should the failure of all of those horses you mention above matter to the standard of performance put up by Treve?You are free to be as impressed as you wish to be. I am trying to look at how strong a race it actually was. There was a murmuring about this year’s race being an exceptional renewal, perhaps on a par with Dancing Brave’s year. Despite a handful of horses who were
potential
stars earlier in the season, several of those contenders were coming into the race on the back of disappointments. Despite there being tips around for Leading Light, Flintshire, Ruler Of The World and Al Kazeem I predicted that none of them would be involved and so it proved.
Did Orfevre run to form? He certainly saw off many of the overrated ones listed above but he didn’t have a lot to spare on Intello who he seemed to take a fair while to outstay in the closing stages. Orfevre himself was touted as bad value, having thrown away a dog of an Arc last year, yet now he is being held up as proof that the form is "Rack Salad"
I am not a numbers man. I don’t need to see someone produce an "Official" rating, a time, or quote some pundit (who obviously is bound to be more expert than myself) in order to "prove" a point.
If you wish to hang the "greatest ever" medal around Treve’s neck then carry on. I’ll hang fire for now.
Steve,
The overall standard of this year’s Arc does not need to be exceptional for Treve to be rated highly. Because she did not just beat Orfevre, she beat him by a long margin, 5 lengths (or between 4 and 5 lengths). I remember we had a similar debate about War Command and his form level Steve.
Winning distances matter.Orfevre’s form rating given for Sunday’s performance has nothing to do with being "bad value" beforehand. Everything to do with the position he finishes in relation to the other horses in the race. In any race some horses will run to form, some won’t and some will improve their form.
I asked the question in the thread title because from Treve’s 5 length beating of Orfevre and co, it was clear to me that performance was right up there with the very best I’ve seen. I do believe it was the best performance by a 3 year old filly in my racing memory. Whether it’s the best by any aged filly, I too will have to reserve judgement for now Steve. Timeform say in their write up the winning distance was more like 4 than 5 lengths and have rated her as such. Having seen the race again, they are right. So obviously, a 4 length beating of Orfevre is not quite as good as 5.
Value Is EverythingI too refuse to put the best ever on any horse because of one performance….
I deliberately made the question about one performance SHL, because people can rate the one run as "the best ever performance" without having to rate Treve the "Best filly/mare ever". ie If someone wants to include things like consistency then they can rate another female the "best ever".
Value Is EverythingI too refuse to put the best ever on any horse because of one performance….
I deliberately made the question about one performance SHL, because people can rate the one run as "the best ever performance" without having to rate Treve the "Best filly/mare ever". ie If someone wants to include things like consistency then they can rate another female the "best ever".
I hear ya. However I suppose that sometimes its hard to judge one performance when its context may change. We could one day look back with the suspicion that a vanquished horse might not have been quite right on the day or the thought that he never stood a chance.
SHL
In any case a truly great racehorse doesn’t need another horse to do the "work" for them, since they ought to be able to adapt their running style to fit the shape of the race
I suppose that rules Frankel out as being a truly great racehorse then as Bullet Train done the work for him?
Nathan you have left yourself wide open there! Remember the St James’ Palace balls up!! A horse like Frankel never needed a pacemaker it almost brought him undone, the same with So You Think using a pacemaker absolutely ridiculous in both cases.One got beaten because of the pacemaker the other had to fight to hold off an average horse after a shocking error in judgement in using a pacemaker and a horrible ride by Queally which was even worse than Ryan Moore’s by quite a bit on SYT and that is saying something!!!
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