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Interesting to read Hurdy and Zamorston’s comment with regards to reading what could happen because what the jockeys might or might not be saying in private, and the signals Paul Nichols gives out. It is true that Gerraghty does seem quite dismissive of Al ferof, but i don’t think that the way PN sees it. I’m kind of wondering if some of the relevance between novice and experienced chaser status is reduced a good bit by the fact that Al ferof has been jumping better than his opponents, plus he has toe to win a supreme. I noticed a free tenner bet in one of my accounts, so i put it on Al ferof at 4/1. I wouldn’t have deposited anything otherwise.
Here’s my new angle for Finian’s Rainbow – he had no right to win last time out, yes, but he beat the 152-rated Oiseau De Nuit by 2 1/2 lengths. The last time Oiseau De Nuit lost a race by 2 1/2 lengths or less was a Class 3 Handicap Chase in December ’09. He’s won 1 of his last 16 starts; The Grand Annual.
Prior to the Desert Orchid (currently trades at 46 for today’s race, 7th favourite out of 8, 32 points bigger than the 6th fav), he finished 4th in a Class 2 Handicap over 2 miles at Cheltenham and was beaten 45 lengths in the Boylesports.
I think people are looking at the style of Finian’s Rainbow win and not the substance.
I also cannot believe some of the stuff I’m reading about Al Ferof on here and on Twitter.
Paul Nicholls already saying that today’s VC Chase is key to getting Al Ferof experience. Maybe the confidence is starting to evaporate….
Having watched Finian’s Rainbow at Kempton, it strikes me that having made such a serious error and still have the abilty to win cosily (as it was in the end) is the mark of a very talented horse. If he doesn’t make any errors like that today it will take a very special performance to beat him.
Well not long now till we know who got this one right. I started the thread, and interesting as the comments have been, I still stick to my original choices.
I know Al Ferof still has it to prove at this level, and that PN is looking to the future with him, although I don’t think he would place him in a race that he thought he had no chance of winning. But I am far from certain that he will win, just that I feel he is the likeliest winner if he progresses the way I think he might.
I know poor old forpadytheplasterer has taken a bit of a bashing on here, but I would be more certain of him being placed than I am of Al Ferof winning. I think he will get a good enough pace, and unlike a previous comment, I don’t think he wants to have a lead, I think he wants to sit off the pace and although he may miss a kick at the end, I think this galloping type will still be there or thereabouts.
Less than 2 hours to go, and he is still 12-1 1/4 place odds with VC. I think a cast iron 6/4 return, with the outside chance of the 12-1 win if things go wrong for others…..is does happen in racing.
Good luck guys
What has struck me in the build up to this contest is the amount of confidence Paul Nicholls has in Al Ferof and I get the general impression that he will be slightly disappointed if he is beaten.
His theory behind running Al Ferof in this type of contest, rather than some uncompetitive novice chase, is sound and very shrewd. If he can compete against this calibre of opposition – and he will me made to fight – it will stand him in good stead for the Arkle. If he is anywhere on the premises at the business end, connections will go to Cheltenham with maximum confidence.
I was convinced Finian’s Rainbow would not win the Arkle last season because on the few occasions he was asked to battle at the highest level, he lost. The scraps Captain Chris found himself in during the season arguably made all the difference at Cheltenham, and Finian’s Rainbow improved for the experience of that one race more than all his previous races over fences combined. You need only look at his latest triumph – he would not have come back from that kind of error / slip last season.
Sprinter Sacre has not been asked a serious question thus far and on the one occasion he was popped a few questions against seriously good horses, he lost. His Supreme effort was nigh-on identical to Finian’s Rainbow’s in the Neptune Investment the previous year – travelling better than anything turning in, but finding little when challenged. Sprinter Sacre had no answer to Al Ferof, who quite simply bulldozed him and his stablemate.
The only concern I have today is that Al Ferof is quite possibly too brave for his own good. Remember, although he appears a natural over the bigger obstacles, he is still a novice and lacks experience. He would be more inclined to throw himself at a fence rather than just pop over, but he has the right man in the saddle and I have not been more impressed with another novice this season in the jumping department.
Ginger is spot-on regarding the betting approach to this contest. I have backed Forpadydeplasterer each way and Al Ferof on the nose.
Looking ahead this race was about Al Ferof and at no stage did he look like winning. Just looked short of pace but did well to stand up two out when Walsh nearly put him on the floor. Those who have supported him for the Arkle have got to hope the stiffer track will give him a better chance of success.
Al Ferof: Mission Accomplished.
Jumped upsides some established, experienced, quality animals and never blinked. That experience will be priceless and he will be even better around Cheltenham, where the undulations and hill will play to his strengths.
He was under pressure a long way out – much like Captain Chris was on several occasions prior to, and including, the Arkle – yet showed real determination and his jumping was superb considering his inexperience. It arguably kept him in the race.
He jumps, stays, battles and now has invaluable experience to compliment those necessary attributes to win an Arkle.
I was confident about Tidal Bay and Sizing Europe in recent years, and I’m getting the same feeling about this chap.
There’s no doubt PN does over face some horses. I was actually a bit shocked when he threw Kauto Stone in at the deep end as he looked so promising early doors.
Ghizao look brilliant at Cheltenham when he flew on fence which was so impressive it stuck in my mind it had me thinking he was better than he actually is and with Tatatiano what you see is what you get but potentially Al Ferof looked batter than them when winning the Supreme but then that dreadful run last time has you wondering.
I immeditaly looked back at the Supreme and wondered is he really that good or did this race fall into his lap. NH reckons
Cheltenham
was a year too soon for both of his. Take them out and consider they were all flat to the boards and he’s beaten Cue Card 2 lengths further than Menorah did.
Is that really good form or not? Damned if I know.
Tomorrow will tell us more.
I’m having another bet on Somersby anyway as I think if he’ll ever win a big race it will be this one for reason’s I a have already given.
Now you might be all thinking that Fist is a real clever dick. Back’s Finian’s Rainbow and Somersby but reckons it might just be the day Somersby wins a Group 1 so he gets stuck into him again.
That all well and fine until I decided to do a mutiple with 7 horses 5 fold 6 folds and 1 7 fold. Picks the first 6 and swithers between Finians and Somersby and of course goes for Finians
Cost me literately thousands and thousands of pounds. I hate Somersby I hate Finians Rainbow hate Nicky Henderson hate Barry Geharty in fact I hate everybody including myself …and not forgetting your place lay on Al Ferof!!!
Absolutely delighed with that race on all angles….backed Somersby
…and was hoping for a decent showing from Al Ferof…but not too decent…as I want him to go Arkle instead of Champion Chase, so couldn’t be happier….Totally agree with Bosranic’s excellent post regarding Al Ferof and the Arkle….surprised all bookies aint shortened him…Corals seem to be the one who want to push the price!!
^^ Congrats on Somersby, Zamorston.
Interesting to read his owners thoughts in the Racing Post this week. Quite insistent that he is a Gold Cup horse in the making, but has supreme confidence in Al Ferof running a big race in the Arkle.
Kicking King came within a whisker of beating Well Chief in the Arkle and we have seen the likes of Tidal Bay, Sizing Europe and Captain Chris translate their ability over further.
I’m quite tempted by an Al Ferof 2012 Arkle / 2013 Gold Cup double. I think he’s a very, very good horse.
Bully for the owner but I have to be perfectly frank and say when PN Ruby and the owner waken up tomorrow and face reality they will know that unless this horse suddenly finds some new gears he has absolutely no chance of winning an Arkle.
He did today exactly what he did in the Supreme only this time the front 2 never stopped/came back to him whatever way you want to put it.
It’s not like he’s just ran 3rd to Sizing Europe and Big Zeb these two horses have both lost out when it really matters and have had their limitations exposed so many times especially Somersby no one can take anything out of that other than Al Ferof is a sure fire who lacks the ability to handle quick changes in pace change and talk of Gold Cups is ludicrous.
Sure he’ll win races but the Arkle, King George’s, Gold Cups? I wouldn’t hold my breath. Horses like him don’t improve they get worse and I suggest if you are a big fan prepared to follow him over a cliff do yourselves a favour and jump just now.
Seriously if he’s going to take on Sprinter Sacre and Peddler’s Cross, he will get murdered for toe when the pace quickens after halfway’ He couldn’t even stick to Sprinter Sacre when he was a big gangly novice now he’d be lucky to get within 10 lengths of him when Barry sets sail. No doubt Peddlers will make a bold bid to try and go with Sprinter Sacre but all that will do is inject more pace for Al Ferof to cope with.
Unless Sprinter fails to complete or Peddler’s is found to have something permanently wrong with him Al Ferof has absolutely no chance of winning.
What you must take into account is Sprinter Sacre is regarded as the best horse pound for pound at Seven Barrows nd if he had been entered in the VC Barry wouldn’t even have to think about which horse he would have ridden.
That race was nothing compared to what Al Ferof has to face at Cheltenham.
Sorry for the rant but if Paul Nichols or the Owner say they were happy with that today when the biggest worry they have hit them right between the eyes then they are in total denial.
Some of what you said is laughable, some is possibly true.
Sprinter Sacre probably is the quicker horse, yes, but the Arkle isn’t always about speed.
…and was hoping for a decent showing from Al Ferof…but not too decent…as I want him to go Arkle instead of Champion Chase, so couldn’t be happier….
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