- This topic has 43 replies, 22 voices, and was last updated 9 years ago by
.
- Posts
Cloudy Too for me ,Dynaste has a clear chance to a bet on that rather than an Ew on Cloudy Too.
If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
I’m taking a chance on Wychwoods Brook who ran OK on his seasonal debut behind Gas Line Boy and including the jockey’s claim is now considerably better off. Has course winning form as well and at around 14/1 has an EW chance. Aerial would be the main danger if his jumping holds up
I looked at Wychwoods Brook but he was so awful at Kelso I had to talk myself out of backing him. Theatrical Star seems to be well handicapped. Looked at Loose Chips previous races last night [was a bit painful to watch, the Chepstow race being the only time in two years that I haven’t backed Double Ross!] and he is very tenacious. Can’t have Dynaste; we’ve followed him around lately. He’s a photographers dream but a punters nightmare. Came into the paddock very late at Kelso [which annoyed a few people standing next to me who had wanted to see him] and they seem to keep trying different sorts of headgear. Can’t believe how well Gas Line Boy is jumping these days; always had him down as an iffy jumper but he was foot perfect at Kelso. Nobody targets these Saturday races as well as PN, and Aerial loves Sandown. And Baileys Concerto is my cliff horse this season. So many beloved horses in this race, especially Saint Are who’d better not have an uncharacteristic fall again. Will be watching from behind the sofa as usual.
I think you may find TAPK that Cloudy Too has ran and ran well in a couple of Grade One chases!!
Try to get the facts right Gord!!!
Well, my weight adjusted predicted performance ratings for this contest have Cloudy Too (165) clear by 4 lengths so I have backed him to win at 12/1.
Dangers: Rocky Creek (159) but don’t fully trust him; Gas Line Boy (159) but one of many front runners, none of which will get their own way, so logical to oppose all of them; Wychwood Brook (160) but considerable concern re jumping; Theatrical Star (161) but slight jumping worry though has run well here twice; Pete The Feat (161) I considered seriously E/W @ 28/1 as a second bet but is a front runner and at 13yo can’t be sure retains last season’s ability.
Can’t fancy: Dynaste (155) & doubt retains this ability – felt he should have been retired after Kelso; Loose Chips (156) exposed as not good enough & front runner; Aerial (157) seems to run to what capable of regardless of conditions so won’t necessarily improve for stiffer test than last time.
The rest I have extremely serious doubts about.
Astracad is an old friend of mine, but I’d be lying if i said i was confident in his ability to stay 3 miles. Same applies to Bennys Mist.
Gas Line Boy was really impressive last month over a trip I’d consider a mile short of ideal. He’s been raised significantly as a consequence, but this race should suit.
Pete The Feat has been frustrating at times, but i can’t bring myself to abandon him just yet, not on this mark. 28/1 makes for a generous e/w proposition.
Happy enough with Loose Chips, I put up Cloudy Too as the e/w part of Pat’s Saturday
H’cap Tipping Competition last night (Loose Chips the win part). I hadn’t bet him but
swithered a bit (a bit too long) and after missing the 14s this morning I’ve stuck a
covering bet at 12s. I might as well stick them down for the f/c, or is that asking too
much
Dynaste may be a Grade 1 winner, but he’s not capable of that level of form anymore, so really doesn’t come in to it. That said, even on April’s 22 lengths 4th to Cue Card in the Betfred Bowl is very well handicapped here. But being the best in at the weights isn’t everything. Made the running that day and showed more enthusiasm than often is the case. Convinced a prominent position is important to him these days. Probably wouldn’t have been involved in the finish anyway, but went well enough in front on reappearance in Charlie Hall, before a bad mistake finished him off. Disappointed last time, but that can be written off due to being held up.
This has always looked the plan, trouble is (as GM says) there’s a lot of pace in this race. Temperamental and if unbable to race prominently suspect Dynaste to lose interest. Hasn’t won as often as one of his ability should. He’s a 2 1/2 to 3 mile chaser and so a strongly run race on soft going may not suitable.Value Is EverythingAgree with Botchy, BigG and Joe.
Loose Chips is another who races prominently and can give up if not getting his own way. But imo at the prices is worth taking a chance @ 18/1. Generally goes well here and in good form. Would be a lot shorter but for a non-staying 7th last time.
Gas Line Boy improved when making all last time out. Not sure he’ll run his race if unable to lead either, but unlike most here is going the right way.
My other main bet is the hold up horse Shuil Royale. Taking a bit of a chance on ground, improvement has come on better ground and probably will be too soft here. But at 16/1+ is worth taking a chance, has some soft ground form further back.
Couple of savers on dodgy jumper Theatrical Star and inconsistent Aerial.
Value Is EverythingSecond, third and fourth, but I’ve had good wins on Pete over the years and still got a smile on my face.
Value Is EverythingHave backed C Longston s two LOOSE CHIPS and PEAT THE FEAT both e w . the case for the latter may not be obvious but is now 11lb below last winning mark and similarly well below several v good placed efforts in this class recently. The case for LC has already been made by Big G .
Well done Racingorchid, picking out 1st and 3rd is great punting. I was delighted with
Loose Chips, he ran a blinder and gives a good return e/w. I wasn’t aware until Charlie
Longsdon mentioned after the race, that Loose Chips had had a problem and had 3 weeks off
after his last race, he’s only been back in training for 10 days, that makes the run all
the better considering the lay off.Well done Racing Orchid + Peterh, smashing pick that, and peter to get 28’s was fantastic.
That was the first and last time I ever back Dynaste..Never interested!
Well done all ‘Pete the feat’ supporters,your loyalty was rewarded.
This has always looked the plan, trouble is (as GM says) there’s a lot of pace in this race. Temperamental and if unbable to race prominently suspect Dynaste to lose interest. Hasn’t won as often as one of his ability should. He’s a 2 1/2 to 3 mile chaser and so a strongly run race on soft going may not suitable.
Well done all ‘Pete the feat’ supporters,your loyalty was rewarded.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.