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https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/54/sandown/2025-01-04/883364
Sticking with last years winner Sam Brown as the main fancy here, and I thought the 12’s fairly decent. Long term fancy fur this, and 10lb claimer appears in the frame for the ride
Remastered is second choice. Not keen on betting two at the five day stage these days, and he looks riskier Antepost, but I’ve chipped away at the 16’s
As I said on National thread tonight (and couple of other times lately), I’m cooling on the Sandy Thomson yard, but Empire Steel probably the yards best horse right now, and he’s not without hope
Smaller entry this year, but looks better quality, and the Tizzard pair at the head of the market, Eldorado Allen and Copperhead, make loads of appeal
Remastered 16’s
Sam Brown 12’sWith you VtC in this with Sam Brown, but only got 7.5-1. Quite fancied it last time but under-performed, although the race itself is working out quite well.
Disappointed to see only 9 lineup as it’s been a decent field each time they’ve run this since it’s inception.
Nevertheless it’s a fine race and I’ll be tossing and turning between Copperhead and Eldorado Allen between now and Saturday morning. The former has been nothing short of resurgent this term and a prize like this would be just deserts. The latter has been his usual consistent self and rarely lines up without my money these days. This will surely have been the target.
On GTs point; I don’t think 10 year olds can qualify for this as they’ll be 9 during the previous year when the qualifiers are run, themselves veteran chases…? Unless I’m being dim, which seems a regular occurrence these days.
You’re correct Peter, the final has never been contested by 10 year-olds for the reason you’ve given.
Timeform say for “10yo+”. But maybe “Veterans chases” have to be officially 10yo+, only for this race having all qualification rounds last year. Hence no 10yo’s taking part.
Value Is EverythingBacked Remastered at 14s who was in process of giving Al Dancer a good run for his money in the Badger’s Ale.
My 100% Book:
Copperhead 28% 5/2
Eldorado Allen 20% 4/1
Sam Brown 16.5% 5/1
Fortesque 8.25% 11/1
Smarty Wild 7.75% 12/1
Empire Steel 7.25% 13/1
Ask Me Early 5% 20/1
Remastered 5% 20/1
Chambard 2.25% 40/1Vast majority of my bets are win only. Therefore these prices relate to how I see their chance of winning. Some (eg Fortesque) have a better chance of placing than these percentages suggest.
I’m also aware that sometimes money talks. E.g. If Smarty Wild drifts badly in the betting it may well mean he’ll need the run. So if drifting don’t necessarily believe it’s an even better value bet.Have backed Copper @ 7/2 and Smarty 16/1
With savers on Allen @ 9/2 and Sam 6/1.Value Is EverythingVeterans Final Preview:
imo This does not look as competitive as usual. Am on one outsider plus the three favs. Although only one fav as a “main bet”… And you can probably guess which one from the name.
I think because this is “The Final” and excellent prize money for veterans, one or two are racing here instead of what they would’ve done any other time.
Stablemates Copperhead and Eldorado Allen have similar chances on their Cheltenham form last time out. So you might think EA is the best value – being a fair amount bigger in the betting. I have backed Eldorado Allen but only as a saver @ 9/2. Would’ve been a main bet but for one thing… It’s Sandown – right-handed. Last time Allen ran this way around it was the 2023 Sodexo at Ascot. Normally one of the best jumpers around… and didn’t make any serious errors there. Ran a fair race to be 7 lengths 3rd. But I remember him jumping quite badly left at times. I doubt he’ll be quite at his best here, but that still might be good enough, so a saver.
Kelso specialist Empire Steel (last 4 victories have been there) was a fair 3rd of 4 finishers at Haydock on reappearance / last time out. Entitled to come on for that run. However, he’s had 21 starts in his career. There must surely be a reason why he’s raced right-handed only the once. When finishing 10th of 11 finishers at Sandown; beaten over 28 lengths. If acting this way around then even on his form away from Kelso has a fair chance here, but for me that’s a big IF.
Chambard hasn’t impressed me going this way around either. Although has won at Huntingdon, it turned out to be an unncompetitive 3 runner race… Despite winning may not have shown all that he could do there, disguising his progression. Next time out showed much improvement to win the Kim Muir at Cheltenham at the age of 10. Also won the Becher Chase as an 11 year old in December 2023. Chambard still seems to be handicapped on Aintree, despite not showing anything like that form in just four runs since. Latest on reappearance when pulled up.
Ask Me Early does act right-handed. Won at Exeter in February last year. On that form stands a good chance here, but was in first time cheek pieces that day. They haven’t had the same effect since and am surprised they haven’t reached for different headgear. Beaten 22 lengths on reappearance. It’s possible he might come on for that run, but has mostly run his best races fresh. So I’m doubtful.
Remastered won at Wincanton and isn’t out of this. But has fallen twice since – admittedly in more competitive races. Having every chance when coming down at the cross fence in the Badger Beer. But wasn’t travelling that well when falling some way out in the “Henessey” last time. Not sure this will be far enough for him these days and has never impressed me with his finishing effort either…
Latter comment also applies to Fortesque. Seemed to be enjoying leading on reappearance at Aintree, Appeared to be going better than Copperhead 3 out before fading. Has a 16 lbs turn around in the weights here for the 14 lengths beaten. However, Copperhead has probably improved since while Fortesque disappointed. Truth is he’s inconsistent but with his trainer now in form I can see him running well if his temperament holds. Even at his very best has a disease called Seconditus. I love the lovable old rogue, but is one of those horses who may be a better place only bet.
Sam Brown is a horse I think we all love. Finds plenty for pressure in the closing stages and amazingly finished 2nd in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall at the age of 12. tbh It wasn’t much of a Charlie Hall, with Bravemansgame and Conflated on the downgrade. But even so, on that form Sam Brown has a good chance here. However, was beaten a long way in the “Hennessey”, when only 10th last time out. Didn’t get away well, in the last two of a big field, seemed to bank the first fence and pretty much always pushed along from that point. Maybe the larger field didn’t suit. Raced a bit easier in the Charlie Hall, but pushed along at the back of the field fully a circuit out. Was 4 lengths behind the pack rounding the home turn before staying on past beaten horses. Possibly flattered, but even so has more positives for this race than most. Blinkered for the first time in a while here (was visored as usual at Newbury and no headgear at all at Wetherby). I can see him getting behind again, possibly too far behind. Is he a 10 lb claimer’s ride? He’ll need them to go a strong pace if he’s to win this, as stamina is his forte. Just a saver for me although is possibly a better bet in running – once being pushed along – if they go a fast pace likely to favour hold up horses. If a slowish pace early I’ll be looking to lay even my saver bet back.
So to my main bets:
Smarty Wild might surprise a few. But he’s the absolute opposite of Eldorado Allen and Empire Steel in that the vast majority of his best efforts have been right-handed. Likely to be dropped out, so will probably need them to go at a decent pace. Appeared to be given a “prep” at left-handed Haydock first time out – pulled up after two years absence. Just what he’s capable of isn’t easy to judge. Now 11; when 9 he was pretty consistent, just didn’t win very often. But he is at a big price here and I do generally find horses are more likely to come back to form if the yard is in top form. Philip Hobbs / Johnson White has had 7 winners in their last 18 runners (from Boxing Day). EDIT: The 16/1 and 14/1 has now gone and only Bet365’s 12/1 the only double figure price left in the village.
Gingertipster had to be on Copperhead. Nah, I don’t take any notice of these things, Just that he seems to have a fantastic chance. Been in great form with recent figures of 1, 1, 1, 2, 2. Last time out almost getting back up after the winner Numitor idled. Up just 2 lbs for that effort and is 3 lbs worse off for the 4 lengths margin back to stable companion third Eldorado Allen. So the stable companions are well matched on “form”. But a right-handed track should suit Copperhead a lot more. Four right-handed victories to his name and ran well at this track when second on penultimate start. Gone up from a mark of 117 to 133 this season. Was only 6/1 for the 2020 RSA as a 6 year old. Totally lost his form after a bad fall in that race. Often either pulled up or not beating many home. Dropping from a mark of 155 to 114 in 19 races – before his current resurgence. So might go a bit further back up the scale here. Copperhead now seems far more consistent than the vast majority of veterans. So a very worthy favourite. Usually tracks the pace. I’m hoping the Tizzard duo will race together up front. Fortesque the other one that likes being on the front end. If Copper or Allen don’t win then it’ll probably be because they’ve gone too quick and a hold up horse beats them. Sam or Smarty?.
Value Is EverythingThats a fantastic write up Ginge, just hope that the race is on after all that effort.
Thanks Landafar. Hope you got Smarty Wild when he was value @ 16/1 and 14/1.
Value Is EverythingThats a shame Ginge.
After yesterdays Musselburgh episode, I thought if there was any doubt it would be called off..Lets see how well the AW stands up today.
Pencilled in for Warwick on Saturday now.
Not sure if they re-open the race. There must be a list of qualifying horses somewhere?
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/35/market-rasen/2025-01-17/885890
Ilikedwayurthinkin is the fly in the ointment for me here. A horse I like, and I’d give him a real chance.
Sam Brown far too short now, and I’ll have to swerve him for now
Three years I make it since I bet Smarty Wild for whatever the old Racing Post Chase was called then, when he was a big fancy, but rarely been seen since. I’ve bet him a couple of times since then, and even though ideally I’d that Kempton race in mind fir him again, the gamble on him last week didn’t go unnoticed
Remastered bet again, in preference to Sam Brown. Unlike Smarty, I could see me beating this price on Remastered.
Feels wrong to desert Sam Brown, but I can’t bet him at 9-2, when he could hit several times that in running
Remastered 14’s
Smarty Wild 14’sPredictable last minute bottle job, and added Sam Brown 7’s, and small top up on Remastered at 20’s…………but much smaller bets here. Bet less on the three of them than I had on Sam Brown Antepost for Sandown
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