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I’ve been working on fitting a points system into the trends through the year, if I apply that to the runners, Wembley comes out on top. He’s strong on all the other trends. I possibly think the number of runs trend could be ignored this year. AOB has repeatedly said he’s struggled with the delay to the start to get his 2 year olds going this season. When we look at Wembley’s form, that fits as well.
It took him 4 goes to get off the mark between June and August with a best RPR of 90. That’s unheard of for decent AOB 2 year olds, and in normal years, there’d be a big black line through Wembley. But this is not a normal year and what he’s done after that is where we should focus when looking at him, in my opinion. It’s a massive improvement and more inline with what we’d expect from a classic potential AOB horse.
He isn’t unbeatable though, none of the 2 year old form looks amazing at all even at the top level. I am a little surprised that he’s only running one as well which is often a pointer with AOB, but this time, you’d think he’d want to ensure a good pace for Wembley to run at and there doesn’t appear an obvious pace angle to this. If it’s a fairly steady pace, that would suit more One Ruler than Wembley I think and King Vega would have to prove he’s learnt a lot from his last start and can settle off a steady pace.
It looks a pretty low standard renewal really for a race that has provided the last 3 guineas winners
I think it’s a decent enough renewal FF actually, it isn’t low standard.
Wembley – Placed in Dewhurst and National Stakes, RPR 119
One Ruler – Autumn Stakes winner, RPR 111
King Vega – Lighty Raced, Solario 2nd, RPR 107 (surely more to come, Kameko 2nd in Solario LY)Of those 3 One Ruler already proven he wants a mile, with One Ruler and King Vega sure to appreciate the extra furlong.
State of Rest – Champagne 3rd is not bad form, RPR 112
Mac Swinney – Futurity Winner, not bad form, RPR 108
Cobh – Royal Lodge Placed, RPR 106
Megallan – No run in Autumn Stakes, ran on late, RPR 106Any one of One Ruler, King Vega or Wembley wins well, and they will go into the winter as the 2000 Guineas fav.
If you fancy One Ruler, you should take the 25/1 still available for the Guineas
When you talk about the quality of the race though, this is a race that usually goes to more lightly raced, the point you made earlier. 17/20 Ran no more than 3 times, so it’s not always an obvious one that wins this, although the market is a good pointer usually, 11/12 from the top 3 in the betting.
Only 3 horses in the lineup have run 3 or fewer times, 1 is 150/1, 1 is 20/1 and the other is King Vega.
If there is a lighty raced unexposed horse in the field, it is only King Vega and I’m hoping he’s going to send us into the winter excited for next year!
For all Wembley’s improvement, he doesn’t scream Classic winner at you, not for the Guineas anyway, so if King Vega doesn’t go and do it on Saturday, the Guineas will be the most open in absolutely ages and therefore the spring trials could be fascinating next year and it’s unlikely a horse will come from completely nowhere to win it
Not a strong renewal of this contest and I’m happy to row in with Frenchy on this one and go for King Vega (13/2 in places). Has looked to be crying out for the step up in distance on both outings and looks a sound alternative to useful but exposed favourite Wembley.
Good market this one, Wembley drifting now, money for One Ruler and Magallen. Did we work out where Frankie is ? Doesn’t seem to be in France. Can’t be a classic horse Megallan without Frankie riding today surely?
Disappointing end to the season that. King Vega looked a dog! Oh well, can’t see any three year old Group 1 winners out of that race. What an open Guineas
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