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I thought Reverence was mightily impressive at York, always travelled well and looked a class above his opposition. The question is will he run to a similar level over six furlongs. If this race were over five it’s difficult to see how he’d get beat but the extra furlong makes a big difference.
Amadeus Wolf ran creditably behind Reverence last time and although there was a line of thought that five furlongs would suit him he always looked to be going just quick enough and his best form is over six furlongs. Would have to have a chance here.
Somus is another who will go on the ground and has claims and Baltazhars Gift also acts on a soft surface.
I won’t be having a bet, I think any one of those four could win. It all hangs on how well Reverence gets six furlongs in my opinion.
Presumably that fast ground is considered less important though since some of the best performances of his career have come on dead ground and soft ground.
No-one thinks Steenburg could reverse form then? Nothing wrong with its performance over an inadequate trip last time and the trip and ground are right for it today. I’m expecting it to place at least….
6f would be a concern for Reverence and just looks too short at the price to me.
Steenberg for me, will love the ground was only 5l behind Reverence last time, probably entitled to need that run and he was slowly away too so for me he is the value at around the 10/1 mark.
Amadeus Wolf to follow him home with the weakening Reverence back in 3rd. ;)
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Imo Reverence won’t stay, Amadeus Wolf will – but not well enough, which leaves Quito as the likeliest winner.
With your misgivings about the ground, perhaps the best policy would be not to have a bet at all at Haydock.
There is after all no compulsion to have a bet.
Colin
<br>Just spoken to my busines partner who’s doing corporate work at Haydock and is staying a mile from the track and he reports that it’s tipping down, to the extent that there’s a risk of standing water being a problem for the meeting.
In the final 6F race yesterday, the jocks made straght for the stands side rail and a repeat of that might give Reverence an advantage from stall 10. I get the feeling this might be one of those races that sees everybody looking for one to beat the favourite because they don’t like 3/1 about a possible non stayer – that by race time produces a much bigger price for Reverence and makes him the ‘value’. Although there’s no sign of that so far on BF.
I reckon I’d rather back Reverence than make a bet on Tom George training his second ever flat winner in a Group 1 sprint!
AP
Quote: from EC on 7:48 am on Sep. 2, 2006[br]The more I look at the race the more I want to go for a real mudlark rather than one that just acts on givey ground.
Baltahazaars is a big price but isn’t really proven on this type of ground..neither is Steenburg though he has placed on it…certainly has a chance
I think I will add  Miss Sally to my Balthazaar bet..will act on the ground and has extra stamina as stays 7f..17.0 is overpriced imho.
I’d rather have those two running for me at those prices than chance one at shorter odds on what could be a diabolical surface.
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Miss Sally would have a decent chance on soft ground and an outstanding one on heavy ground. I think she is ridiculously overpriced at the moment but i find it hard to bring myself to have a bet in a sprint. Still tempted though
SHL
BETFRED SPRINT CUP
No need to look any further than Reverence for the value.
His record on Good to soft or softer =<br>11113111
Wasn’t stopping at York and I’ll b every surprised if any behind him there reverses the form. <br>Good effort over 6f on soft on his reappearance when under a length behind the race fit subsequent Gr.1 winner Les Arcs. RP reported that day that ‘The lightly raced Reverence was a highly progressive sprinter over five furlongs last term, but though just beaten here, he seemed to stay the sixth furlong.’
Outstanding value at 3/1 IMO (3.8 on bf as I write).
Cormack, have you any figures for Reverence’s form over 6f and 6f in soft?
These are my own ratings and thoughts for the race:<br><br>Balthazaar’s Gift122f<br>Red Clubs119<br>Amadeus Wolf118<br>Miss Sally117? (120p)<br>Steenberg117<br>Quito116<br>Reverence115t<br>Excusez Moi112<br>Kodiac111<br>Somnus110(112)(118e)<br>Philharmonic108
You get the impression a few of these are chancing their arm in the hope the soft ground levels out the form a bit. I’ve taken what I believe is a bold step in pegging back the Nunthorpe form to Reverence’s previous best. I suspect that at York it was simply a question of not being able to make up distance in that going so I am very reluctant to assess the form at face value. The extra furlong will also be against Reverence. Balthazaar’s Gift might need the going to be as fast as at Ascot so I’ve taken a chance with Miss Sally EW at 16/1 on Friday evening. She was improving fast last autumn and looked set to continue earlier in the season but her form dipped a bit in the summer. She then had a little break and will be fresher than most. The fact she stays another furlong well will be an advantage in this soft ground. Somnus strikes me as another with prospects of a return to something like his best old form as he’s a proven autumn horse and previous winner.
I took MS at 16/1 last night and added Somnus at 9/1 today.
I just can’t have Reverence at this trip.
Reverence had Steenberg a comfortable 4 lengths behind when a close third behind Les Arcs over this trip in Soft ground on his reappearance.
That was his last run over 6 and, given the improvement he has made over 5 over the cousrse of the year it’d be no surprise to me to see his previous form figures over 6 left way behind today.
I appreciate it is a slight doubt but there is ample leeway in the price to compensate.
I think 3/1 is absolutely massive. 6/4 with me.
Quote: from cormack15 on 11:45 am on Sep. 2, 2006[br]Reverence had Steenberg a comfortable 4 lengths behind when a close third behind Les Arcs over this trip in Soft ground on his reappearance.
That was his last run over 6 and, given the improvement he has made over 5 over the cousrse of the year it’d be no surprise to me to see his previous form figures over 6 left way behind today.
I appreciate it is a slight doubt but there is ample leeway in the price to compensate.
I think 3/1 is absolutely massive. 6/4 with me.
I think you make a fair argument Cormack about the horse yet the sprinting division has been so topsy turvy with the last couple of years that nobody is in a hurry to proclaim a good thing, let alone one thats favourite.
SHL
I’m not convinced Reverence has been improving, though.
I reckon the ground is simply the key to the horse. I’m going with the train of thought that he is capable of running to the maximum of his ability in very soft ground where other perhaps aren’t. I’d have reservations about him sustaining his energy for another 20% of the 5f trip, or what’s likely to be another 14-15 seconds in this going. That last furlong is going to feel like two to him.
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According to the Beeb, the time of the first race was only 2.36 secs above standard, which suggests soft gound horses won’t be inconvenienced. Certainly not a time you’d expect on holding ground!
(Edited by reet hard at 1:24 pm on Sep. 2, 2006)
Didn’t watch the last race – but getting cover down the backstraight and moving out in the straight and get going looks like a sensible option in there is tail-wind in the straight. I couldn’t have had Cape Royal with anyone elses money – considering his best form had come at Epsom’s flying downhill 5. Clearly suited today by the tailwind. :o
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