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So I don’t think Fineform is a good place to start if the idea is to find winners by using form
I’m well aware that the win % of winners last time out is higher than 2nds,etc. However I did say IF the idea was to find winners using form. This seems to be saying a win is a win and equal to any other win. We both know this is incorrect, and for the form figure of 1 is to be worth anything the horses beaten have to be taken into consideration.
Many years ago a contributor to a VDW forum put up the win % of horses that had been placed in their last three runs. Taking the bare figures of 211 in hcps on the flat these horses had a win % of 16.62%, if you then confind the horse with these figures to the first six in the forecast it only rose to 17.52. However if one then only looked at the horses in the same sub set that were top rated on two sets of ratngs the figure rose to 27.93.
VDW clearly stated his figures were based on two sets of ratings. This to me immediately points even the novice away from trying to use bare form figures.
Be Lucky
Drone
I assure you that the comment I attributed to VDW is correct. In a letter published in the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book in April 1978 he wrote: "Perhaps I am the odd man out, but I view the question of staking not from the point of enhancing profits, but to SHOW a profit". The letter was reprinted as item 7 of Tony Peach’s booklet "The Golden Years of VDW".
re level stakes, anyone who sees him or herself as a race analyst and can’t show a profit to level stakes over a reasonable period ought to take up another interest. What attracted me to the percentage of bank approach was Stuart Holland’s analysis and he is certainly right that if one wins one wins more – because of course the average stake increases gently over time.
My view that there are fewer people interested in race analysis is, of course, no more (but no less) than a personal impression. Raceform Update seldom contains more than a letter or two these days and although there have been some interesting ones recently on VDW (not least a couple by the initiator of this thread), those apart there is seldom anything re race analysis with what I would regard as any intellectual content. And that seems to apply to the majority of posts on the various internet forums I visit, where there always seems more interest in tips and systems.
Reverting to the Raceform Update, apart from two by Mtoto there have within the last few weeks been two other interesting letters re VDW. The first, in the 8 August edition, referred to the real identity of VDW. The second, in the 5 September edition, offered some interesting thoughts on linking time, going and class. I don’t think there has been any response to either, and if there truly were a large number of people interested either in VDW or race analysis they’d surely have led to some interesting exchanges.
Hensman,
While I agree there doesn’t SEEM to be much response in the RFU to VDW, and race analyse in general. With VDW at least I do wonder how much of this is down to Mr Wheldon, I have no idea how much influence he has in deciding what goes into the forum page. I do know I have written in the past, and I’m fairly certain a couple of others have said they have written and it hasn’t been printed.
Mr Ford (the editor of the paper) has told me he doesn’t know anything about VDW. If "respected" racing journalists like GW tells all in sundry VDW isn’t worth a light how many are going to bother to show an interest? This also reflects back on the people who do have something to say about VDW, why would they even bother to write to the paper?
To me at least, it seems trends are the order of the day. Page after page on trends. I have little or no interest in trainers records in certain races, or courses. I’m not interested in the usual age of the winner of a race, or how the favorites have performed in the past. The only thing that interests me is can THIS horse perform, given these conditions in this CLASS?
Be Lucky
Mtoto
I suspect Mr Wheldon’s selection of letters reflects customer interest.
In the main I agree re trends, though I am interested in trainers’ records in relation to particular races. There is one VDW example which, I suggest, illustrates that some trainers follow regular paths – it is worth looking at Baronet’s placings prior to the 1978 Cambridgeshire AND those of the previous few years. We see in current racing that trainers target particular races year after year – not always successfully, of course – and that can help illuminate whether a given horse is "off" for a prior race or merely running to move towards peak fitness for the target race. Sometimes a horse needs a win to rise sufficiently in the ratings to qualify for a target race, sometimes a win is the last thing it needs! Either way, it is worth noting.
But trends on the lines of "no 6yo or above has won this handicap for the last ten years thus we can eliminate all 6yos and above without any further thought" are for the simple-minded.
Just a quick reminder – the horse tipped by Compunter’s VDW-based module to win the 4.40 Ayr on Saturday was Anna Pavlova with a value price of 10-3.
I use VDW each and every weekend and whilst I dont use the results blind I do create my shortlist from which I study the form.
From the 4.40 I created a list of 4, Ivy Creek Anna Pavlova, Confidnetial Lady and Caldra. I then applied other factors to consider the winner. In all of the six races that I slected to bet on this weekend the winner was in all of my shortlists (3/4runners). I had 3 winners and 1 place from my six selections
I dont bet to make a lot of money indeed my stakes are pretty low (£5 – £10 per race) and I dont really bet to make a great profit I do it because I like racing and have a bit of a flutter makes it even more exciting.
VDW has helped me enormously and I’d recommend it to anyone taking up the sport. I dont have much time to select races (work/life commitments) but a lot of thanks goes to some of the guys on this forum for helping me
the punter turning over £100K will struggle to do it on betfair, if he’s just trying to snip prices here and there. Prices collapse quickly and even the drip, drip doesn’t work too well because of liquidity problems and bots not waiting to be given a hiding before shortening up to an unattractive price. The mug layer/bot has been well and truely done imo.
It’s worth pointing out that by using the "drip drip" method of getting a bet on you don’t need to get it all matched above your value price. Getting some on at exotic odds means that, if necessary due to price collapse, you can complete the stake by taking unders and still have a bet at net value:
Happened to me today on Burren Moonshine in the 4.30 Plumpton (2nd fence unseat!)
My odds 6.5
Half stake on at 10.0 early, dilly-dallied far too long in the run up to the live market, price collapsed, forcing me to complete the bet with remaining half stake on at 6.2 giving a net value bet of 8.1 SP 4/1I do agree with you that Betfair is not what it once was regarding out-of-line ‘mug laying’ but it was all really too good to be true and the ‘tightening’ only to be expected as a novel market matures.
And as for my theoretical example of a 100K turnover well the ease of getting it all on depends on how many individual stakes make up that total and at what average odds you’re betting at. Not a lot of dough anyway over the year, surprising how quickly it mounts up. I regard myself as a fairly small-time low-volume punter but had no problem generating – and getting on – the thick end of five-figures last calendar year.
One of the key positive aspects of betting to ‘earn’ is that you can generate significant turnover from modest start-up capital.
Many years ago a contributor to a VDW forum put up the win % of horses that had been placed in their last three runs. Taking the bare figures of 211 in hcps on the flat these horses had a win % of 16.62%, if you then confind the horse with these figures to the first six in the forecast it only rose to 17.52. However if one then only looked at the horses in the same sub set that were top rated on two sets of ratngs the figure rose to 27.93.
The later versions of Fineform were honed by including additional filters such as third party ratings and betting forecast position if memory serves.
By coincidence I see that tweaked Fineform Formulae are undergoing a test in the Systems section of TRF right now.
I suspect Mr Wheldon’s selection of letters reflects customer interest.
Hensman,
Can I ask have you contributed to the RFU forum? You seem well versed in VDW but would you bother to write when you know the reception would be less than inviting? You may well be correct, but I do wonder how many bother if they have anything to say about VDW.
The purpose of the thread was to try to find out the views of the knowledgeable folk on this forum about VDW. Not to go into any detail and tie up the forum/thread with the finer points. However while I do understand where your coming from with Baronet, I would rather use form to narrow him down into a short list. For me trends are only used when looking at capability and/or probability, the fact his form stood up was the main factor everything else was a bonus. That fact he had run a good 2nd in the race the year before wasn’t the reason I had him as the horse with the best form, that was down to his Ascot run 4/5 runs back.
A couple of things have surprised me about this thread, the first the lack of abuse. Second the amount of interest. As I write this there have been 70 odd replies, and even more startling 1500 hits in just the short time it has been up. I said on the main/usual forum I use I think there could be a market for a SENSIBLE book on VDW. Not another dumbed down Mr Peach type book, but something that may just raise the interest of people like Pru. I do think he would be quite amazed at the depth of analysis VDW went into.
Be Lucky
Hi Mtoto44
could you recommend a good VDW book. I use his ranking and points allotation method in my own form of analysis, but I realise that he offered far more than just this.
byefrom
carlisleMtoto
I wouldn’t be put off writing to "Sports Forum" because of any concerns about Graham Wheldon. But I can’t think of anything that I would want to say. Different if VDW was still contributing – there are certainly some questions I’d like to put to him.
My view that there are fewer people interested in race analysis is, of course, no more (but no less) than a personal impression. Raceform Update seldom contains more than a letter or two these days and although there have been some interesting ones recently on VDW (not least a couple by the initiator of this thread), those apart there is seldom anything re race analysis with what I would regard as any intellectual content. And that seems to apply to the majority of posts on the various internet forums I visit, where there always seems more interest in tips and systems.
The apparent lack of interest in VDW and race analysis in general in the print media may just be a reflection of the times as ‘serial contributors’ to newspapers move on-line. I doubt the circulation figures for RFU, Weekender, R&FO etc are anything like what they were when VDW was in his pomp. Personally I haven’t bought (save on rare occasions) any racing papers for several years now.
In my experience debate on VDW is alive and well on internet forums, this just being the latest of several on TRF alone.
It’s only to be expected that internet forums are littered with tips and systems as, thankfully, unregulation remains more-or-less the case, whereas they wouldn’t have been given valuable column inches in print or they would have had to pay for the privilege as advertising copy.
The growth in the interest of systems, Mtoto’s point about trends, and number crunching analysis in general at the expense of cerebral race analysis is surely no more than an expression of the ease with which complex and involved stats can be generated by all and sundry from computerised databases. I don’t for one minute believe it’s because the ‘intellectual’ approach is regarded as old hat; or perhaps it is by some and it remains to be seen whether the sinners repent, or indeed whether they’re sinning at all.
It would seem that several ‘younger’ members of TRF do indeed still use VDW (and Fineform) and in the manner intended: as a ‘base’ from which to append their own input.
Carlisle,
Personally I think Systematic Betting is the best VDW book. In truth, I think most of what has written by VDW is well worth a read, but I think it should always be in the back of your mind, has this been written for Mr Peach?
Mr Peach has said on more than one occasion he asked VDW to write about speed figures as if it wasn’t a part of the original VDW thinking. VDW mention s/f in letter 19 in TGY, and in The Ultimate Whiel Of Fortune he dropped the hint he had been using s/f back in 1968. Both well before it became obvious VDW was being paid by Mr Peach to write for the SCHB.
The Golden Years is also an interesting read if SIAO is stripped out of it. SIAO for me is the stumbling block many can’t see past, and the one most remember. The only useful thing it does is to make one wonder how VDW worked most of the early examples. The one certainty was it wasn’t by following the criteria set out in it. I also think many have arrived at a false impression of how VDW looked at form by trying to make these early examples fit in with it. The use of the ability rating being the main reason for this.
Be Lucky
Just for fun (!), here’s the Compunter VDW-based module’s verdict on what is just about today’s best race, the 4.40 at Hamilton.
This is probably just below the standard of race that should be operated but nonetheless:
Dustoori: Rating 130, value price 13-8, indicated as a BET by the program
Sphinx: Rating 125, value price 3-1
Bajan Parkes: Rating 123, value price 9-2
Tilt: Rating 122, value price 5-1
Looking at the ratings, a five-point gap is pretty conclusive from this software.
But from a value point of view, Bajam Parkes is available to back at 14-1 but is quoted at a value price of 9-2. So this is a clear case of a horse that the program doesn’t think will win but seems to be overpriced.
What do you do? Take the 14s on Bajan Parkes or go for Dustoori who, at the time of writing is a 9-4 shot.What do you do? Take the 14s on Bajan Parkes or go for Dustoori who, at the time of writing is a 9-4 shot.
It’s a no brainer, if they are both value then back both.
Rob
The way I see it, there has been very little literature of any use to ordinary punters printed anywhere ever, regarding form analysis or how formulate proper bets, create prices or handicap.
VDW is not the best, or the most modern approach to working things out but it is a good start. Fineform is also good.
With the absence of any decent alternative, this surely is the way to go. At least if you start off with something decent you can learn greater and more sophisticated techniques as you go along. No method is going to give you winners galore or huge profits for small stakes.
Losing slowly as to be the best start?
Cheers. 
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