VDW

[Monster]

Hi Mtoto

They were the Last runs for both horses prior to the Old Newton Cup and the best they had recorded that Season.

The interesting point is that Gorgeous Strike was way out in front on LTO Class & Speed and therefore other considerations had to be the factor that made VDW decide Pipstead was a Certainty. I suspect that Stamina, suitability of Track and weight etc were the ‘Other Considerations’

Good Luck

Monster

[Anonymous]

Hi Monster

I remember you from the Peach forum a few years ago – you still looking for trainers farming races and Stoutes handicap horses??

[Monster]

Hello Ahoy

Good to hear from you, sorry for the late reply but had not noticed your post.

Yes I still keep a close eye on on Trainer and yes Stoute still can do the business and not just handicaps. the attached is First runs from the stable with a little extra criteria.

Also its easier to follow certain owners as they can be creatures of habit too.

Check out Sir Edmund Loder, (relative of David Loder) when he has handicap runners, again certain criteria needed.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= … kOFTJ9EsdA

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= … 75Uok10qQA

I mostly concentrate on handicaps and have developed my own class ratings since the Peach Forum days.

Good Luck

Monster

[goodlife]

Hi Monster

While on the subject of Sir M. Stoute, have you noticed his excellent record with horses wearing headgear for the first time?

GL

[Monster]

Hi Good Life

Its not an angle I have studied with Sir Michael Stoute but as a whole wearing headgear 35/2004 17.2% Strike rate -14% ROI

Winners from last season wearing Visor first time (I don’t know how many losers there were)

Allegreto Visor 12/1
Duchess Royal 5/1
Greek Well 8/1

And I don’t know if you would count these
Wearing Blinkers first time

MARAAHEL switched from visor to blinkers 9/4
Ancient Clture switched from visor to blinkers 5/2

Good Luck

Monster

[Anonymous]

Monster

Where the bloody hell do you get your stats??

[Monster]

Hello Ahoy

I was very politely told that I am not allowed to mention commercial sites on this forum and some of my stats are found by this method. It still means some donkey work is needed though.

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

VDW “The Handicap Book was bought for its races to come feature. As older readers will recall, it used to give the following week’s cards and alphabetical list of horses with trainers’ entries enabling me to study well in advance. Horses could be entered in just one or any number of races and the eventually selected one, if indeed the horse ran, could prove most interesting as indeed could the decision not to run.”

I will try and update this link as new entries apear for this week only.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= … fF3tbjF-CA

For those that are interested the following link is for horses who are running for the first time since being gelded.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= … jLB8rT6jcA

Good Luck

Monster

[goodlife]

Two more very useful links there, Monster. Thanks again.

[Monster]

Hi Good Life

I have updated my google links to include this weekends races.

Good Luck

Monster

[nagwa]

great information thanks monster,

[Mr Kildare]

Ladies/Gentlemen

Please excuse the possible re-hashing of the subject which has been discussed earlier in this forum about the 1978 Erin Foods Irish Champion Hurdle run at Leopardstown and the system used by VDW (never heard of by me before – but that’s prob my loss !!)

Mr Kildare was owned by my late father (Owen Carty who died 2 years ago aged eighty eight) and I remember him well ! He was an American bred gelding (by Hill Clown x Vahine) that my father bought in 1976 for the now amazing amount of IR£30,000 ( you could buy a house for about 15-12k in those days)

He has won the Leop Nov H’Cap and what was then a NH Flat race, the JT Rogers Memorial Gold Cup at the Curragh – he subsequently won the same two races under our ownership the following year, completing the so-called ‘double double’. In the JT Rogers (the 2nd time) he beat horse called La Cita, trained by Clem Magnier, giving her 42lbs weight (yes – forty two !!)

He then went over hurdles, the Erin Foods being only his 3rd outing over the flights !

I remember that morning well at home, because my Dad was ‘hopeful’ but didn’t really think, even off a light weight, that he could compete with the class horses like Monksfield and Beacon Light.

In fact he should have won – approaching the last he was upsides Monksfield and beginning to take the lead. Tommy Carmody (Jockey) got a good jump from him, but he stumbled on landing and split his off fore shoe in two (a fact that never became public) and therefore lost a length on Monksfield who then seemed was going to win, but MK was nothing if not gutsy, and battled back to beat him, only for them both to be pipped by Prominent King and Bobby Coogan at the post – a memorable day indeed , especially for a 13 year old.

One of my late father’s regrets was that when he won the Sun Alliance in Cheltenham, beating Eddie O’Grady’s Flame Gun, was that we dod not run him again in on the Thursday, like Flame Gun who came out and won !

Thank You for the opportunity to remember such a brilliant horse

[Anonymous]

As a new member to this forum I was shocked that discussion was still going on regarding VDW. I still have all the books ‘Golden Years’ ‘Racing In My System’ & Betting The VDW Way’
After exhausting every avenue to arrive at what became known as ‘the missing link’ (the last two ratings) I gave up after spending years on it.
The biggest surprise to me has always been that for a method so well documented no two people arrived at the same conclusion for a race as they all introduced their own interpretation to the method which was

1) Take the first 5 (6 in handicaps) in the betting
2) Add the last 3 form figures together (0 = 10) of those selected
3) For the whole field average total winnings by number of wins.

After carrying out these three disciplines. If no horse has ticks in all three boxes forget the race. Else introduce your choice of 2 ratings to confirm selection.

There seems to be little room for poetic licence!!
My best guess would be that Tony Peach was VDW and was simply
doing his bit in promoting The Raceform. Remember no selection were ever given prior to racing always after!

[cormack15]

Hi Mr Kildare – I have fond memories of your namesake who was around just as I was getting into racing.

[GeorgeJ]

Mr Kildare

Interesting post, and a very nice memory to have.

Actually Prominent King was not a strong selection by VDW (too far down the ability rating ranking for that), merely a "good prospect" in a race with no strong VDW bet (strong here meaning a bet having an 80+% chance of winning). He (PK) just edged out your father’s horse in the analysis, so perhaps due to the mischance of a split shoe, VDW got the first two in the correct order. As Actuary says, VDW didn’t post that, or any other selection, prior to the races concerned but as the selection method is objective and anyone who fully understands it will arrive at the same horses, whether they look at the relevant facts before or after the race, that is of no significance.

VDW (who is still alive and most certainly not Tony Peach) generated a method which still regularly "delivers the goods". But he was not so obliging as to spell it all out and left much to be worked out by those interested. And that takes a great deal of trouble and no little expense (assembling the necessary material for the literally dozens of selections he gave over a period of more than 10 years), time (exploring that material and testing the numerous hypotheses that emerge), and capability. As Actuary has found, putting in time alone gives no guarantee of success in working it all out, but some have.

[nagwa]

hi george, everyone..good to see vdw methods being discussed… do you have to research every one of vdw, examples to find all of the missing parts to his methods.

[Monster]

Hi George

Do you also go under the name of Alan B and Fulham on other Forums.

Good Luck

Monster

[Author]

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