VAN DER WHEIL

[robert99]

Dave Jay,

Thanks for the explanations and further clarifications. Am very much looking forward to the examples. If recent,  they should stimulate some lively debate.

Regards,<br>Robert<br>:cool:

[dave jay]

I have selected these races at random from the RP database. They are filtered as follows; Class Evaluation / Consistency / Betting.<br>Top flight non-hcp races!<br>All selections are positive in all three:

19/10/02 Newmarket 4.00 Class A Group 1 (11 ran)<br>Moon Ballad (2) @ 5/2F<br>Burning Sun (11) @ 5/1

19/10/02 Newmarket 3.25 Class A Group 1 (16 ran)<br>Al Jadeed (10) @ 7/1

4/10/02 Newmarket Class A Group 1 (6 ran)<br>Russian Rythm (2) @ 8/13F

3/10/02 Newmarket Class A Group 1 (10 ran)<br>Elusive City (3) @ 6/4F

5/5/02 1000 Guineas (17 ran)<br>Gossamer (8) @ 11/8F<br>Quartermoon (5) @ 9/1

4/5/02 2000 Guineas (22 ran)<br>Rock of Gibralta Won 9/1<br>Hawkwing (2) @ 6/4F<br>Naheef (14) @ 10/1

19/10/02 Newmarket 4.40 Class A Group 2 (11 ran)<br>Duty Paid (7) @ 6/1<br>Dailing Tone (4) @ 9/1

3/10/02 Newmarket 2.50 Class A Group 2 (9 ran)<br>Millenary (2) @ 9/4F<br>Storming Home (3) @ 5/1

17/8/02 Newbury 4.10 Class A Group 2 (7 ran)<br>Mubtaker Win @ 11/8F<br>Daliapour (4) @ 9/2

8/9/02 Kempton 3.50 Class A Listed Race (8 ran)<br>Sir Edwin Landseer Win @ 6/1<br>Hurricane Alan (2) @ 4/1<br>Ok Pal (8) @ 11/2

Summary of Results:<br>10 races / winners from races = 3 = 30% SR<br>Selections / 20 / winners from selections = 15% SR<br>LSP: if all selections are staked 1 point to win = -0.63<br>Favourite Selected: 7/10 = in 70% of races the favourite was selected.

I don’t know how representative these selections are, any ideas? anybody?<br>

[robert99]

Dave Jay,

Many thanks for the information, but are you expecting some response on the past race selections, or what?

Digging out starting line ups for past races isn’t easy for many – could we, say, discuss very recent big races?

Regards,<br>Robert<br>:cool:

[dave jay]

Robert99,

I was hoping that someone was would come along and prove me wrong. But it looks like I’m getting an ‘or what’ response.

These are some of the best flat races run this year. To the best of my knowledge these should be representative of VDW results. My view is that if it doesn’t work in these races then where will it work? If at all! And if it does work, occasionally, how can I verify that it’s not just a coincidence.

I like to have hard evidence Robert. I researched these races while I was working on this thread and thought I may as well post the findings here and share the information.

Statistics and Facts are a great leveller, even if you don’t like what they say.

[robert99]

Dave Jay,

I think there is a misunderstanding here. The races are fine but there is no analysis provided as to whether the selections were backable or not, or why multiple bets have been taken, all of which just depletes the strike rates and profits. Nothing has been proved one way or the other, as yet. Not that we should expect you to do all the work for this – I was hoping we could all join in and analyse a recent race or a big Saturday race to come.

Regards,<br>Robert<br>:cool:

[dave jay]

Okay Robert,

The races shown are broken down as follows:<br>Race Date/Time, Type of Race and Number of Runners.<br>The horses shown beneath each race are the horses, which are on the short list with the three filters Betting Forecast, Class Evaluation and Consistency applied. This being broadly in line with the VDW literature.

This means that any subsequent selection procedure would be made from these horses in these races. I believe that this disproves the VDW method as a potential 80% strike rate system beyond any doubt.

As I said earlier on this thread, I believe that this is a system building tool and not a system in it’s own right. I think these results prove that to be correct also.

Obviously, you have research and ideas of your own, perhaps you could document them here.

If you want to build a system, I would gladly take your lead in that process. You could always PM me first for a private debate of how we should proceed.

(Edited by dave jay at 10:32 pm on Nov. 21, 2002)

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