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Hi all, been having some problems logging in this past month (forgetting my password or email address I signed up with probably didn’t help!) but Corm has kindly sorted me out.
So after my highly unsuccessful tipping thread ‘Spring in my step’, I thought about starting up another topically named one ‘Summer Lovin”, but if that went tits up again I’d run the risk of being laughed at. So instead I am starting a thread called "Undeterred", which I intend to be when inevitably my tips go the shape of a pear, but also coincidentally a tribute to the reliable sprinter a few years back which I hugely admired.
My first tip will be ZITENKA at Market Rasen. It’s not that often McCoy rides an Easterby horse so that interests me, and has been running well of late (couple of seconds) and has a nice racing weight. At 11/2 I give him a decent shout.
Tomorrow I’ll be trying to crack the Victoria Cup conundrum, I’ll be concentrating on soft-ground performers, those who are drawn high, and those towards the bottom of the handicap – will hopefully come up with a decent eachway bet!
Start as you mean to go on! A nice 11/2 winner, did it well too, had it in the work’s weekly nap competition as well!
McCoy has been in fine form this week and when he’s on fire he is different class to the rest!+ 5.5.
So on to tomorrow’s Victoria Cup. The first one that catches my eye is
NASRI
who is trained by the sprint king Dandy Nicholls and ridden by a very good 7lb claimer Darren Egan, who has had 4 winners in the last couple of weeks. I think those drawn high will have an advantage so stall 21 is a positive – the negatives are that he ran a stinker LTO on heavy ground at Pontefract, but his couple of wins have been on soft going so maybe just didn’t run his race. Is now 2 lb lower than his last win and with the extra 7 lb off as well, he could be worth a gamble. I will have a further look tomorrow to confirm my bet once we know the exact going.
Thanks Venture, yeah not bad each-way on CB, fancied it to be much closer but 4th out of 40 isn’t too bad!
Although I adore th jumps I tend to do a bit better betting wise on the flat, so hopefully I can get a few winners every Friday/Saturday (won’t be posting much in the week due to work commitments). I also seem to find it easier to pick a winner when the ground is riding soft as well.
Good luck in your tipping threads as well WTC, it’s always interesting to see what fellow posters are picking.
Nothing really stands out in the Victoria Cup, my initial fancy Nasri is tempered by the yard’s poor form. Conversely, Venetia Williams has her horses in fine fettle so I give
NAGPUR
a good chance in the opener at Haydock. Looks to be improving, was a staying on 6th in the Neptune and won LTO on similar ground. 12/1 makes it a worthwhile each way bet.
Had an early look at the very decent card at York on Wed, and have earmarked the following:
Right Step/Flag Officer (based on the draw, ground and improving profile)
Coolminx/Instance (based on draws)
Twirl (great pedigree, improver, trainer in form)
Hoof It/The Cheka (big things expected, both could be top class over 6f IMO)
Cumbrian Craic (trainer in form, good debut)
The other two races look a real puzzle, think Flag Officer could be pretty good and was a good second to the classy Sea Moon last year, can improve a great deal.
All things considered I make
THE CHEKA
a solid each way bet tomorrow – in form, powered clear of Jimmy Styles and Mayson in the Cammidge, who has since upheld the form extremely well, and conditions look spot on. 11/1 is good value from that angle and I thi nk the draw will be in his favour too.
Rich: I hope you are correct
Have backed The Cheka EW as I know Hoof It must wrong a massive race and Society Rock ran in all the bag sprints last season and has a massive win in him!
Hmm, wasn’t the best of rides, the winner did run well though and had snippets of good form.
Tomorrow I’ll concentrate on
BONFIRE
, who I really like. Debut win was very promising and was then thrusted into G1 company and performed amicably despite a troublesome passage – that form looks strong and although is facing some similar top 3 yos in Ektihaam, Fencing and possibly Mandaean and EH, looks a really good horse. 9/4.
Thank god for BOG! 3/1 returned, it was 2/1 when I put my bet on last night with B365! Did it well, not sure about the Derby, Parish Hall is still tickling my fancy for that, but definitely a G1 horse.
2 from 4 (if you include Nasri) not bad so far, and The Cheka was only touched off yesterday – I’ll keep it going with another for York tomorrow, maybe in the Cup (I do love those staying races). Times Up is one of my favourites but may be vulnerable FTO, whilst Harris Tweed doesn’t have his ground. There may be a bit of a shock in this one I feel, so will do some studying tonight and hopefully find it.
Oh and I need a 12/1+ horse in order to win my work’s weekly nap competition tomorrow (I’m a few points off top at present), so any recommendations would be very welcome!
After having a look at the Cup just now, nothing stands out, so hopefully Dunlop will have Times Up ready to do himself justice. Glen’s Diamond promised to be a decent stayer last season so he could have a squeak at big odds.
Laugh Out Loud, Shamdarley and Spifer would be my other choices on the card, but I may wait until Saturday before putting up another bet.
Mark Johnston, one of my favourite trainers, has had a relatively quiet week by his standards, but think he can culminate it with a good day today. I fully expect his hotpot Baileys Jubilee to oblige in the first, and should have at least a double tonight at Hamilton, but the one that catches my eye is
KEY GOLD
in the finale at York. Has come to the boil gradually and won well LTO, albeit when fully expected to, but I think she could develop into a decent middle distance horse this season. MJ does well with this owners horses and the Cape Cross filly is attractively priced at 15/2. Well worth a go.
Key Gold very disappointing there…tomorrow is a feast of flat racing, Hajras is interesting stepping up in distance and grade, Ziefhd should improve this year and Sash Of Honours debut form looks solid. Will hopefully do better than today and pick one out somewhere.
I understand that TAPK has put up
BATED BREATH
for the Golden Jubilee, however Ifeel he can show his hand this Saturday in the Temple Stakes at Haydock in what promises to be another decent benchmark for the sprinting season. While Sole Power has course form he is a bit in and out for me, and I think Masamah will come on a lot for the run and is definitely one to follow in the coming months, BB can go well FTO and missed his engagement at York last week waiting for faster ground. At 4/1 he’s worth a few quid early doors.
My Derby hope
Parish Hall
runs in the Irish 2000, however he is very much a watching brief as I think he will be spot on for weekend after next. Can’t believe the Derby is only 10 days away!
Rich: Do you go? It’s a great day out mate, I have been going for many, many years. Have travelled back from the likes of Canada, Germany, NI and as far as the Falklands for the Derby week-end over the years
Falls on my BDay this year so if there is any justice Parish Hall will win and make my day, however I will settle on Captain Dunne or Jamesway winning the Dash
Hi GDC – no I’ve never been to the Derby, nor Epsom for that matter…my brother lives in West Sussex so is only about 30 min drive away so may go stay at his and go one year (I hail from N Wales). Bit twitchy that PH may not fire this weekend and that he’s taken out of the Derby, but from what Bolger has been saying he should give a good account of himself. I may put a fiver on the double as you have suggested in another thread!
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