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I quite like A Good Skin for this, trained by Tom George and ridden by Paddy Brennan he came into his own at the end of last season (2 seconds followed by 2 wins in his final 4 starts), those 2 wins were both chases over 3m with the latter even being at Cheltenham on good ground. I think after those performances they drew up the plot for this race as this season he was under-par until a decent 2nd last time out. I’m guessing here but I think he will have improved a fair amount over the last 12months but hasn’t had a chance to show it due to running either while not 100% fit or on unsuitable ground.
Maybe a bit of a shot in the dark as he’s only back from a long layoff but Morning Assembley for Pat Fahy could have a decent squeak in this if allocated a nice enough weight. He was an excellent novice chaser back in 2013/14, only being beaten by Carlingford Lough in the Topaz at Christmas and finishing 3rd in the RSA two years ago behind O’Faolains Boy and Smad Place. He had one more outing that year when again behind Carlingford Lough in the Grade 1 Novice chase at the Punchestown Festival in Apr’14.
A few setbacks kept him off the track until January of this year where he made a satisfactory re-appearance going down a very short margin behind Bridget’s pet (recent winner Lord Scoundrel 9L back in 3rd). He then again filled the runner up spot behind the impressive Smashing at Gowran park over an inadequate 2 and a half miles. He will more than likely be allocated a sizeable weight on his form lines with Don Cossack, Carlingford Lough, Smad Place et al but if he gets a handy mark, he could be a live contender for this if given the chance.
It will be interesting to see how much the handicapper raises Theatre Guide following his demolition job on Saturday.
I’m rating him a fair bit better than the bare form as so many things went against him during the race and he appeared to get a less than efficient ride. I’m not sure even a 10lbs hike might stop him.
Bigzeb that’s a nice one you’ve pointed out there, if he gets a lenient-enough weight then I’ll seriously consider backing him, for all we know the horse could have improved but with the injuries it’s easy to be sceptical which is why I wouldn’t be keen to have him if he’s got a fair weight.
Maurice yes Theatre Guide was very impressive, reminded me of Smad Place in the Hennessey! Agreed that a 10lbs raise wouldn’t put me off him, could well be more to come and he may not even have been 100% tuned up for that run.
Another interesting one is Out Sam for Greatrex, two very easy wins and is going to a handicap so it could well be this one.
My main bet for this is Fingal Bay. Been chipping away at him for a few months now, and got him up to 29’s. He’s much better than his mark, and he’s a big fancy.
Also on Salubrious 90’s to 95’s, he’s a winner waiting to happen, but he’s got alternative engagements.
Holywell and Minella Rocco the others I’m likely to add.
My main bet for this is Fingal Bay. Been chipping away at him for a few months now, and got him up to 29’s. He’s much better than his mark, and he’s a big fancy.
Also on Salubrious 90’s to 95’s, he’s a winner waiting to happen, but he’s got alternative engagements.
Funnily enough I’m in on the pair of these Bob, Fingal Bay very heavily for this and Salubrious for the Plate only. Two strong handicap fancies though. Also really like La Vaticane for the Plate, although if I carry on much longer I think I’m in the wrong place
Morning Assembly is the one and only thing I’ve backed for the National thus far. Would love to see him run well here.
Good shout Boz Fingal Bay certainly is well handicapped to say the least! Won at the festival over 3m last year.
God these Cheltenham handicaps are a nightmare, so many good horses that are potentially well handicapped, could back half of the fields in most of the hcap races!
It won’t come as a big surprise to many on here that I’m a big fan of THE YOUNG MASTER.
I’ve expected big things from him this season, but he has been costly to follow and he ran almost too
badly for it to be true last time out. That was in the Cleeve Hurdle, and although I didn’t expect him
to win that, and it was obviously just an opportunity to get a run into him before going back over
fences, it was a dire run.I thought he had a shout in The Hennessy, but he went at the first. I fancied him for the Welsh National,
but he did my money by not turning up ….twice!! I backed him for The National, but he hasn’t been
entered. I know I’m a bit slow on the uptake, but is there a theme running here
If I’m clutching at straws here, I can at least take some consolation that his run in The Sodexo at Ascot
in December, where he was a strongly running on 4th over 3 miles, suggests the 3m 1f at Cheltenham should
be right up his street. He’s already a c/d winner in a handicap at the Festival 2 years ago and was well
fancied in the RSA here last year where he tired between the last 2 and finished an eased down 7th.If he gets a decent weight in this, and if the Cleeve run was a one off, he is very good value at 14/1.
He’s running off 149 so if Sausalito Sunrise, another favourite of mine, takes his place off a mark of
163, then TYM would run off a very winnable weight.HADRIAN’S APPROACH is another horse who has a big race in him when he puts his mind
to it. He was third in the RSA 3 years ago, and was well fancied when he went off nearly fav in a handicap
at the Festival 2 years ago. He’s had his problems, he didn’t run from Jan last year till he reappeared
in the Betbright on Saturday. He ran a really encouraging race, well there until he tired 3 out. He must
have needed that to some extent, so at 33/1 and running off 147, he is decent value at 33/1.OUR SAM, FINGAL BAY and THEATRE GUIDE are some of the many in with genuine shouts. I also really liked
THOMAS BROWN, but not sure where he will go, and after him spitting out the dummy in the Betbright on
Saturday, I’m not sure he would cope with the cut and thrust of Cheltenham at this stage. Maybe next
year for him.You could stick a pin in here, and you would still have some kind of shout. Nightmare…..but I love
it.Best of luck
It sounds like Andy Stewart thinks the 3 mile trip found out Salubrious a couple of runs ago so the Plate might be more to their thinking. He didn’t run well over the Plate trip after that and I think he’s crying out for 3 miles. Unfortunately though, in all of the stable tour write ups from Nicholls, Salubrious hasn’t even been mentioned once as part of his Cheltenham team….I’m guessing he won’t be going after all…
Gone off Theatre Guide, just think he was well handicapped at Kempton and clearly fit enough to capitalize on it. Ran no sort of race in this race last year while having a slightly lower rating than he will this time around. When you look at his form it’s not a massive surprise he bolted up at Kempton off 139 and at 9 years old I don’t think he’s the improving handicap horse you want for this race.
Hadrians Approach though interesting has always been too much hype and no substance for me.
I’ve done Khruzhlinin each way at 20/1 here. He was entered in the Bet Bright and I lost my money on him there antepost. Once I heard this was his target it seemed sensible to get on quickly.
I expect that he will go off about 8/1 and trainer Philip Hobbs said he has come on a bundle since beating Le Reve on his first start for the yard.
Kruzhlinin was purposely kept from the racecourse to preserve his handicap mark for the Grand National and I think he should be very competitive here on his way to Aintree. He arrives a fresh horse with scope to do better for his new yard.
Warren Greatrex saddles the favourite Out Sam here. This horse has won his last two but they were both three runner affairs and I can’t have him at as low as 7/1 for this.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I am on WONDERFUL CHARM for this at 33/1 !!
This horse has ran behind some very good horses and they even tried it against Uxizandre here last year !!
I think its best run was at Aintree last year behind Duke of Lucca off 159 got beat two necks I think and that form would put him pretty close in this and he is overpriced at 33/1 .Well THE YOUNG MASTER made it here, having failed to appear for a few races
and costing me dear in the process, including not entering for the National.I had hoped a while back that Sausalito Sunrise would have taken this route
and put TYM on a nice weight of about 10-12. Unfortunately he chose to get
humped by Many Clouds instead.11-8 is more than I would ideally like, but if his abysmal run in the Cleeve
Hurdle can be forgiven, he will run a big race here. He’s won over C/D and this
is a more realistic target than the RSA was last year.He’s still a 14/1 shot, I think that’s a sound e/w bet.
I just can’t have Holywell here. Jonjo is stinking the place out at the moment and it’s taking a leap of faith to back him, particularly when the odds are poor looking value. Can he really concede a stone to the favourite, after an abysmal pulled up effort last time, when, again, a poor value price?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Theatre Guide – impressive 3rd at cheltenham in Jan, hacked up last time out off the back of an unbelievably strong 2nd in the Hennessy. How this horse is 14/1 I will never know. Getting closer to Cue Card on the gallops as well. He is a beast, jumps well and stays all day
Out Sam & Kruzhlinin are very much on my short list with preference for the former. Not much between them but Kruzhlinin can tend to make the odd blunder so Out Sam gets the vote. At a decent price of 16/1 I shall also be thinking about an EW bet on Un Temps Pour Tout who hasn’t had too much experience over fences but if he can translate his excellent hurdles form tomorrow will be there or there abouts
Good Luck all
The horse I feel is well handicapped for this race is David piped un Temps pour tout,a 163 rated hurdler in his prime gets to race off 148 tomorrow.Ran a decent race at last year’s festival in finishing 6th..Has had 3 starts over fences and has been dissapointing,but ran a better race off 152 last time out in a class 2 gets to race off 148 tomorrow..I understand his inexperienced but I just feel he’s well handicapped and if his jumping holds up must have a decent Eway chance
It’s intresting that jonjo takes his chance with beg to differ instead off going for the Midlands national on Saturday where he was favourite for the race antenna post ..didn’t jump very well but won off 133 last time is off 143 tomorrow if he can brush up his jumping must have a serious chance won with any amount in hand last time..I’ll take them 2 against the field in a tricky looking enough handicap.
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