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I feel like I have neglected racing somewhat since starting university. I still keep up with the news and major events, but haven’t studied races in serious depth for a long time.
What better way to rectify this deplorable state of affairs than with some shiny new daily previews?
I plan to cover one race in detail every day. My analysis is quite a long process, so I intend to stick with 6-12 runner handicaps where possible. To keep with my strengths, most of the previews will be over the sticks but I am not averse to looking at the lesser code when bad weather prevails, or we endure another ‘jumping break’.
Enjoy!
1st October, 3:00 Newton Abbot, Jack Bevan Your Local Bookmaker Since 1897 Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)
Course: Left-handed, sharp, level
Distance: 2m 1f
Predicted Going: Soft
This looks like a very spicy handicap hurdle and a good race to start my daily previews with. Many of the horses in this race come into it boasting strong recent form.
CLARION CALL (Evan Williams), 11-12, Official Rating 119
Back, fear, watch or pass? – PASS
Although Clarion Call is evidently game and consistent, as a string of placed efforts show, he doesn’t seem likely to trouble the main contenders here. He spent an entire summer tirelessly hunting a first win over hurdles, being beaten numerous times in small-field maiden hurdles over a variety of distances. The win eventually came in a minor event at Bangor, but he seems very harshly weighted for this competitive race on all known form. Sharp track and two miles also seems far from ideal. Pass.
GUD DAY (F M O’Brien), 11-04, Official Rating 111
Back, fear, watch or pass? – FEAR
Gud Day is interesting. He seemed to share the profile of Clarion Call very well for most of the summer. He had the same modest flat horse, turned consistent low-level hurdler career. This changed with Gud Day winning astonishingly easily at Uttoxeter last week. There, he had the help of the same lady amateur rider (looks tidy) as today. The switch to soft ground is worrying given his USA pedigree, however.
REGAL ONE (David Bridgewater), 11-02, Official Rating 109
Back, fear, watch or pass? – BACK
A formerly Irish-trained horse, Regal One definitely handles the soft ground, with his impressive debut effort behind Glamourous clear proof of that. He lives up to his name in comparison to some here. He is indeed regal, having raced just four times in his entire career. Compare this to some of these novices having had more than thirty starts between flat and turf. Regal One races when he feels like it and sits upon his throne the rest of the time.
His Irish form is very impressive in the context of this race. Indeed, he is well-handicapped if he can reproduce either of his previous efforts on ‘soft’. Regal One’s only run for the Bridgewater yard so far was when third at Stratford over a little further than today. He made the running on that occasion for the first time and the ground wasn’t as soft as he has shown his best form on. Now down to a more suitable trip, with his favourite conditions, Regal One looks very tempting. He is on a lenient mark and is worth a bet.
QUADRILLER (Phillip Hobbs), 11-01, Official Rating 108
Back, fear, watch or pass? – WATCH
A horse with a very dynamic name, who has achieved absolutely nothing of dynamism on the racecourse. In France, he was always nearer last than first. Inexplicably, he was recently purchased by Phillip Hobbs. Perhaps he knows something that we don’t. Quadriller ran a fair race when fifth in a maiden hurdle at this track on his British debut. He ran like a horse lacking fitness – blowing up, then staying-on, then getting tired. He gets a ‘watch’ tag as he is bound to improve on that effort, but surely cannot be relied upon to find a career-best performance and actually win.
FINCH FLYER (A Sadik), 10-13, Official Rating 106
Back, fear, watch or pass? – PASS
As a dual-purpose horse, Finch Flyer is another who has done his connections proud at his level. He can be somewhat inconsistent, but struck a rich patch of form lately to win twice over hurdles with the help of Tony McCoy. His last win was a very weak race, though. This demands a lot more and he is up in the weights.
SETTER’S PRINCESS (Ron Hodges), 10-11, Official Rating 104
Back, fear, watch or pass? – PASS
Setter’s Princess was extremely modest on the flat. She improved in that discipline after hurdling, but didn’t carry that back to timber when last seen about a year ago. It is asking too much for her to win a competitive race like this after such an absence.
RED RIVERMAN (Nigel Twiston-Davies), 10-09, Official Rating 102
Back, fear, watch or pass? – PASS
Red Riverman can be a real loon, who has been very badly behaved on occasions. He ran off the course on once and has often looked very awkward and unwilling. He does have a hurdles win to his name, but has had a long period in the wilderness since then. Red Riverman looked a little more interested in the job on his latest run in a 2m 4f claimer, but he cannot be trusted to build on that. Dropping to claiming level isn’t exactly a vote of confidence from his trainer, either. Soft ground is also an unknown for him.
THE LEMONPIE (Brendan Powell), 10-07, Official Rating 100
Back, fear, watch or pass? – FEAR
The Lemonpie has finally got his act together. So many times in the past his races went sour (baddum-tish!) when he pulled hard early then finished weakly. Being fitted with a tongue-tie has undoubtedly been crucial there. The form of his latest hurdles win reads well too, with all of the horses nearby going on to win races of their own since.
The only negatives are: an effective 15lb raise in the weights (including jockey claims) and an encounter with soft ground, which is an unknown. The Lemonpie is still respected, though.
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Conclusion:
REGAL ONE
is selected to deliver on the promise of his Irish form, with conditions and a lenient opening handicap mark in his favour. Beware of Gud Day and The Lemonpie. Let us keep a beady eye on Quadriller.
Bets: REGAL ONE 1pt WIN @ 6/1 or SP (BOG) (bet365) 03:55, 01/10/2012
TYF,you dear boy are a wasted talent,our paths have crossed on several occassions in the past and each time you have blown me away with your incredible knowledge of our Great sport.I know picking Winners is a damn sight more difficult than knowing whats won when but its still based on an undertanding of how Horseracing operates! I’m not telling you how to suck eggs but If I was you I’d be concentrating solely on the big Jumps meetings coming our way soon,Cheltenhams Paddy Power and Newburys Hennessey meetings would be a big attraction for someone like myself reading your thoughts!Either way you are a big addition to a knowledgeable bunch of contributors here on ‘DLAP’s.Good Luck,I’ll be reading with interest!
Thanks for the encouragement, TAPK.
I only hope to be half as successful as your ‘A King’s Ransom’ thread.
Thanks for the encouragement, TAPK.
I only hope to be half as successful as your ‘A King’s Ransom’ thread
.
You don’t want a winner for a year instead of 6 months ?
Good stuff TYF (other than your sig).
Are you Tommo’s son?
Look foreward to reading more.
Value Is EverythingHope you keep posting mate. It seems like every new poster on this thread quits if their first selection doesn’t win. It is always nice to read different opinions. Better luck next time out.
I didn’t post it here but my lay in the race was Finch Flyer, whose form when it has been soft was absolute rubbish. 7/2 and ran like a scabby donkey.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
@Ginger: Come to think of it, I do look a bit like Tommo and Lesley Graham’s secret lovechild…
@Steve: Yeah, I couldn’t have Finch Flyer at all. Even if he had his ideal conditions, I think the race was too hot for him.I was disappointed in Regal One today. He moved okay until hitting the third-last, then fell apart. Maybe he hurt himself there or just isn’t that good. The Lemonpie got a soft lead and it was ‘game over’ for the hold-up horses. The form of his last win has been bolstered over and over, so it wasn’t a huge surprise. He might win again in a similar race.
Overall: – 1 point
2nd October, 3:20 Sedgefield: Gus Robinson Handicap Chase (Class 4)
Course: Left-handed, undulating, testingDistance: 2m 4f
Forecast Going: Good
Today, we head North for a low-grade handicap chase from Sedgefield. I don’t know any of these horses, but a first glance suggests that they all find winning quite difficult. I suppose most modest handicappers do. Tregaro comes into this on the back of a course and distance victory, so the question will be of whether he can defy the penalty.
SPARKLING TARA (Sue Smith) 11-12 Official Rating 106
Back, fear, watch or pass? – FEAR
Sparkling Tara was fragile but occasionally showed promise when trained in Ireland. He ran well at the Galway Festival last year and also showed up well in valuable bumpers as a young horse. Since joining Sue Smith, he has disappointed many times, although some shockers could be excused due to the ground or for being comeback runs. Thrashings by Nodforms Violet and Ruttan Lake cannot be explained away quite so easily.
Sparkling Tara’s last run (at this course) when just edged out by the in-form La Pantera Rosa reads well. Assuming that horse had 4lbs in hand given its career high mark was 108 and it won from 104 that day…(stay with me)…and noting that Sparkling Tara was being conceded 4lbs and got beaten a neck, we can work out some vague maths to suggest that Sparkling Tara is at minimum a 103/104 horse, but quite likely a shade better. He has to defy 106 here, but is at least in good form and may have more improvement to come.
As a side note, don’t you just hate geldings with names like this? The number of times I have called Sparkling Tara a ‘she’, then corrected it, is embarrassing.
SADDLERS DEAL (Chris Grant) 11-10 Official Rating 104
Back, fear, watch or pass? – PASS
Saddlers Deal runs his best races when carrying less than 11-05. He often completely bombs when carrying near top-weight as he is today, even when well-handicapped as he was in a three-runner race at Southwell last year.
He is again well-handicapped for when he can run with a lighter weight on his back, perhaps the type to win at a big price too. Not today.
FIVE OUT OF FIVE (Evan Williams) 11-08 Official Rating 102
Back, fear, watch or pass? – PASS
Obviously, there is something mentally or physically amiss with Five Out Of Five nowadays. He was an above-average hurdler who racked up three novice hurdle wins, then started his chasing career well by beating a Nicky Henderson hotpot at Fakenham. Soon after, he lost a leg or something terrible happened.
After that good run, he was dumped into a claiming hurdle, where was not sighted. His former owner Angela Rucker quickly offloaded him, too. Five Out Of Five suffered various misfortunes from here, usually born from careless jumping. He has also developed a strong tendency to finish weakly. He has thrown away easier opportunities than this in the past and cannot be trusted at all. Total monkey.
THE FOX’S DECREE (Martin Keithley) 10-12 Official Rating 92
Back, fear, watch or pass? – PASS
The Fox’s Decree is well exposed as very modest, but still has a chase win in the books from his chasing debut. He is a good jumper and versatile in terms of trip. On the negative side, he couldn’t win given a slightly better opportunity than this at Newton Abbot recently. The Fox’s Decree looks booked for a place. Sparkling Tara’s recent placed effort reads much more appealingly than his.
TREGARO (M E Sowersby) 10-12 Official Rating 92
Back, fear, watch or pass? – FEAR
A former Ditcheat inmate, most likely chucked out when they noticed Kauto Star lapping him three times before he got up the gallops once. Tregaro finally won for his this yard last time at this course and distance but now finds himself at a career high mark.
I am not completely put off, though. He jumps quite well and beat the in-form Gaugin (the pair miles clear) in that victory. He could well be improving at only six years old. Big player.
EARL GREZ (Peter Bowen) 10-10 Official Rating 90
Back, fear, watch or pass? – BACK
The form of Earl Grez’s run behind Shan Bleu two starts ago looks very strong, with the winner doubling up, Sadlers Star and Tregaro going on to win and Gunner Rose finishing a close second. Although ‘soft’ was nowhere in the official description on his most recent run at Fontwell (fairly distant 4th), to the eye on video it looked quite tacky. Earl Grez has previously run very badly on that sort of ground or worse extremes of muddiness.
His yard was affected by a virus earlier in the year, so his handicap mark has dipped a long way since its peak of 104. I believe he is well-handicapped and has conditions in his favour today. He races from only 90 here! The form of that penultimate start reads extremely well, so Earl Grez seems to be a third tempting proposition.
Conclusion:
Three stand out here: Sparkling Tara, Tregaro and Earl Grez. Earl Grez has
Tregaro
beaten at the weights on their previous encounter, so that rules Mike Sowersby’s horse out. Although
Sparkling Tara
is getting his act together over fences now, his form has a slightly less consistent profile than that of the selection:
EARL GREZ
.
Conditions should suit him ideally here and he is well-weighted if able to repeat his effort of two starts ago. His recent defeat is easily excused on account of unsuitable ground. On that form, he is a winner in waiting. He’ll do for me.
Bets:
EARL GREZ 1pt win @ 9/2 or SP (BOG)(bet365), 02/10/2012, 01:38
Earl Grez rattled the jaws there. We knew Tregaro was one to fear and he showed improvement to beat the Earl from a career-high mark.
We’re getting closer to a first winner, so keep the faith.
- 2 points
No bets today – nothing caught my eye on the flat.
Back tomorrow with another preview.
Gah, I’ve really been remiss with the selections lately. Uni work has been heavy so I have had to prioritise.
I guess I can say there will be more…when I have time.
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