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Last year we had a little ante post competition on the forum pitting our wits against the Almighty Pricewise that was won by forum legend HurdyGurdyMan. Details here:
https://theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … =3&t=89159
If anyone fancies doing the same again, I will gladly run the admin side of things because I’m a bit of a statto and I’ve come out of hibernation now its The Road To Cheltenham. Every Tuesday in the RP, Mr Segal will put up an ante post selection for one of the Championship Races at the Festival – he begins with the Gold Cup this Tuesday. It is our job to simply beat him, and each other.
The rules we settled on last year are as follows:
– One selection per race, either 2ps win or 1pt each way.
– Prices taken only with high street/internet bookies. No betfair.
– Prices quoted at the time of posting (i.e no aftertiming).
– Late entries permitted, but only allowed to use prices at the time of posting.
– That’s it. If anyone thinks of anything I’ve missed from last year, then fire away.BONUS HINT – It’s usually wise to make your selection on a Sunday or Monday at the latest, as our lovely bookmakers tend to trim prices on a Monday afternoon to second guess what Priceweise tips up.
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GOLD CUP:
First Lieutenant – 2pts win – 14/1 with VC.
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If the thread dies a death then no worries.
Over to you!
Glad to see this make a return, full marks to you Blunkett was a great bit of fun last year!
First Lieutenant 2pt win@14/1 with Victor Chandler.
Hi Blunkett, good to see you back on here.
I’ll go for
Sir Des Champs
2pt win at 6/1 various bookies.
I think Mr Segal will go for Captain Chris.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
The Gold Cup market has a very changed look to it compared to recent seasons, the absence of Denman and now Kauto Star leaves a gaping whole in the staying chaser division. The big question is will something step up to the plate to confirm themselves as the successor to the throne, or will there be five jumping the last together something like last year
That could well be the case but imo the overall quality of this year’s contenders is higher than last year.The current favourite is Bobs Worth, a horse who’s extremely hard to fault. He won the RSA in good style before winning the Hennessy in somewhat sung fashion. He’ll relish the three miles and has won at the Festival two years running. He looks an uncomplicated ride and is a sound jumper on the whole. He looks the most obvious winner but at 3/1 is priced accordingly.
Long Run brings form from previous Gold Cups to the table, form which I’m not a big believer in. When he won, Kauto Star was having a nightmare season while Denman was past his best. I think Long Run just picked up the pieces at the business end. In all his races since he’s looked distinctly short of pace, and his jumping has been the focus of intense criticism. Sooner or later he’ll be employed by Irish Ferries imo. At 7/1, he’s quickly passed over.
The Giant Bolster was second last year and goes well around Cheltenham. However, he’s never looked really top class, and he needs to bounce back from a septic King George run.
Silviniaco Conti beat Long Run in the Betfair Chase, where his accurate jumping won the day. The more I think about, the more I feel Ruby stole the race, and Paul Nicholls’ previous concerns about the horse round Cheltenham linger in the mind. At 7/1 he’s another of little interest to me.
Tidal Bay may run here or the World Hurdle. If it’s soft, he may run in this, and even though he’s 12, his form this season is as good as any. He ran a cracker giving Bobs Worth weight in the Hennessy, before staying on powerfully to take the Lexus. His age will put many people off but he has the form in the book. The worry on good ground would be that others may get away from him. Considering the ground will probably be a factor as to where he runs, he doesn’t appeal as an ante-post proposition.
First Lieutenant ran a great race in the Lexus, and has produced his best at Cheltenham in the past. He was probably ridden too agressively in the Hennessy while when beaten by Bobs Worth in the RSA, he was quite keen early on. That being said, the score is currently 2-0 to Bobs Worth and I feel First Lieutenant would be better suited to running in the Ryanair, where he’d be the horse to beat.
I backed Captain Chris in the Ryanair last year and he lost masses of ground jumping to his right. That, added to my opinion that he is simply not good enough, makes me doubt his chances.
Flemesntar cruised into the lead turning in at Leopardstown before being collared after the last. He kept at it well enough but didn’t find as much as what looked likely. It will be interesting to see how he fares in the Irish Hennessy, as a smooth win there and he’ll surely go for the Gold Cup. Anything else and he’ll probably end up in the Queen Mother. He’ll be an extremely interesting contender if he runs.
One that makes some appeal at a big price is
Last Instalment
. He’s 33/1, and while he hasn’t had a regular prep, he would be very interesting if he runs. He slammed First Lieutenant last year and that form looks top class. The worry is that he hasn’t been seen since, he may need soft ground to run, and he also has the Ryanair an alternative.
Now I come to my selection:
SIR DES CHAMPS
. A dual festival winner, he has disappointed some people this season. First time out, I thought he ran a perfectly respectable race on bad ground against Flemenstar in the John Durkan, looking for all the world like he needed the run. In the Lexus he made a mare of one down the back straight, and he looked to be struggling thereafter. He then got himself back into a promising position approaching two out, before a bad jump cost him 2 lengths again. He jumped stickily on the whole, and considering he only went down by half a length, it was quite an effort. I’m hopeful he’ll jump and travel with more zest on the likely better ground at Cheltenham (he jumped like a stag there last year) and if he does he’ll win well imo.
GOLD CUP
Sir Des Champs – 2 pts win – 6/1 various
Thanks for this again, Blunkett
Tempted with Silviniaco Conti as i think he’s still underrated by some, but i’m going to pick Bobs Worth. Brilliant course record.
Bobs Worth 2 points win at 3-1
Yeah well done Blunkett and thoroughly enjoyed it last year and was great to read everybody’s reasoning behind their selections
For the Gold Cup I’m going for:
Flemenstar @ 14/1
If he learns to settle I think he could get 3m 2f on better ground and at the price he’s worth a chance
Thanks Blunkett, I’ll have a go, looking back through last years thread is a chastening experience, how different things can look in over 2 months time!
The Gold Cup – I’m torn between the 2 dual festivial winners, Bobsworth and SDC.
SDC will improve for better ground and the extra 2f or so and will imo reverse form with all 3 in front of him in The Lexus, However Bobsworth won the RSA and The Hennessy without having being bottomed out and will be very hard to beat, he simply ticks all the boxes and is the most likey winner (although SDC probably the better value). I’ll most likely back both but for the thread;
Bobsworth 3/1, 2 points win (various).
If NTD can work his miracles on Imperial Commander he’d have a serious chance. Due to return in the Argento Chase in a few weeks, but the 66/1 on offer is too good to miss. 1 pt ew.
Lots of blue on Oddschecker for Sir Des Champs, Flemenstar and First Lieutenant.
Last Instalment ruled out for season today so I’m guessing that’s why the bookies have cut the two Gigginstown horses. I’d say Flemenstar is the Pricewise horse.
Lots of blue on Oddschecker for Sir Des Champs, Flemenstar and First Lieutenant.
Last Instalment ruled out for season today so I’m guessing that’s why the bookies have cut the two Gigginstown horses. I’d say Flemenstar is the Pricewise horse.
Well called.
Surprised at that. Has a horse won over 2 then won the Gold Cup in the same season ?
The way he finished, with slight mistakes at the final couple of fences, suggests his stamina was ebbing. Pricewise thinks he pulled too hard but no so sure.
The brother Barafundle stays 3 miles alright but at a lower levelI’m all over Bob’s Worth for this BUT given that he’s likely to start bigger than the 3s currently available and there’s not much AP value in that, I’ll plump for;
Tidal Bay @ 16/1 (various)
Purely on the chance that this wet weather continues for the next 9 weeks
Although I hope not as I’m on at 28s for the World Hurdle.
Thanks for running this btw Blunkett
Lee
Lots of blue on Oddschecker for Sir Des Champs, Flemenstar and First Lieutenant.
Last Instalment ruled out for season today so I’m guessing that’s why the bookies have cut the two Gigginstown horses. I’d say Flemenstar is the Pricewise horse.
I was hoping Last Instalment was going for the Ryanair THM. Now doesn’t seem to be an obvious Gigginstown Ryanair runner. So First Lieutenent is more likely now to switch to "their own race".
Value Is EverythingLots of blue on Oddschecker for Sir Des Champs, Flemenstar and First Lieutenant.
Last Instalment ruled out for season today so I’m guessing that’s why the bookies have cut the two Gigginstown horses. I’d say Flemenstar is the Pricewise horse.
I was hoping Last Instalment was going for the Ryanair THM. Now doesn’t seem to be an obvious Gigginstown Ryanair runner. So First Lieutenent is more likely now to switch to "their own race".
Mouse seems full sure he’ll run in the Gold Cup so I think your cash is probably safe enough. Out of interest Ginger, what sort of chance would would you give First Lieutenant in the Ryanair?
Mouse seems full sure he’ll run in the Gold Cup so I think your cash is probably safe enough. Out of interest Ginger, what sort of chance would would you give First Lieutenant in the Ryanair?
What did Mouse have to say about the Gold Cup THM? Must have missed it. Although am always skeptical about what trainers say, especially when they’ve come out with comments before and (on the face of it) reversed them.
http://www1.skysports.com/horse-racing/ … December-1
Suspect it will be O’Leary that’ll make the decision. In my opinion given good (fastish) ground First Liutenent may well need at least 3m in top company these days. Although it still might be worth a bet depending on price. I haven’t got involved in the Ryanair yet THM, so difficult to know who’ll turn up. Therefore virtually impossible to come to a price worth taking for First Lieutenent, or any of them. If still available when we know more of who’s running suspect 12/1 at SJ might look good, 6/1 WH is too short. But the 12’s is obviously only available because he’s a doubtful starter. Sadly not one that’s quoted in their "To win at the Festival" market.
Suspect the confidence Lynch has of Flemenstar’s stamina might be more to do with keeping him apart from Sizing Europe. If not taken on up front in the Irish Hennessey you could see Flemenstar settling much better and winning that race. So still might go the Blue Riband route. Although a great fan of the horse I’ll probably be looking elsewhere even if turning up in the Ryanair; due to worries travelling over and acting on the course. Could be another Limestone Lad?
If Flemenstar does end up in the intermediate chase (also a Champion contender) bound to be favourite. Will last year’s Champion winner and runner-up switch to this? Any 2 miler who also stays 2m5f is likely to run scared of Sprinter Sacre. However, I do have reservations about Finians Rainbow staying this trip in a truly run race on a stamina sapping course. Presumably Cue Card will come here? Suspect his chance depends on how many front runners take him on. Champion Court went well for a long way in the King George, but he was a non-stayer racing against a stayer, is he really that good? Will the real Grands Crus and Riverside Theatre come to the party?
I wouldn’t like to make a book on the race or have a bet yet THM. Although at massive odds… like to know where Mouse’s other good horse China Rock is going to run? Didn’t seem to stay in the Gold Cup; where as a Ryanair run would be interesting. Bookmakers don’t quote him. Came there looking dangerous on the turn for home in the Lexus. Either didn’t stay or needed it.
Value Is Everything
That could well be the case but imo the overall quality of this year’s contenders is higher than last year.
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