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It really is too bad that Cirrus des Aigles can’t run in the Arc. He looks to be as good as he’s ever been.
Got on Cirrus today at 7/2 just 5 minutes before the off, I just had a thought that Treve might be in need of her first race and Cirrus is an old warrior who never gives in..what a race.
If I were Criquette Head I would be wanting Thierry Jarnet back in the saddle for the season. The filly goes well for him and he seems much better suited to Treve and her style of running as she always takes a keen hold and needs settling before being pushed to lead and quicken.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Would love a price on Frankie to get sacked by the end of the year.
What the …. did Frankie do wrong?
Value Is EverythingWhy is that people weren’t all over Cirrus Des Aigles today if so much was in his favour and so little in Treve’s?
Simply because Treve is one of the most impressive Arc-winner of the last ten years.
Cirrus is eight years old now, he’s quite an old boy. I think he was underestimated in this race.It is true that Cirrus was probably a little underrated today but the greater factor was that Treve had been
overrated
on her seasonal debut.
To be quite honest, I think Treve is a touch overrated and I was half expecting to see her get beaten. I do think many people have got carried away by her Arc win.
Cirrus Des Aigles is one tough warrior at 10f and clearly retains most of his ability.While there’s every chance that Treve is still a red-hot contender for this year’s Arc, I’ve a creeping suspicion that something deadly may emerge from the 3YO division to thwart her chance this year.
Why is that people weren’t all over Cirrus Des Aigles today if so much was in his favour and so little in Treve’s?
Simply because Treve is one of the most impressive Arc-winner of the last ten years.
Cirrus is eight years old now, he’s quite an old boy. I think he was underestimated in this race.It is true that Cirrus was probably a little underrated today but the greater factor was that Treve had been
overrated
on her seasonal debut.
Can you please explain Steve
how
Treve has been overrated for the Arc?
How does one palpably below form effort on reappearance somehow mean the Arc form is devalued?
…Or are you really saying Treve ran to form today?
Is Norse King as good as Orfevre? Former beaten 4 1/2 lengths by Treve here, latter beaten 5 lengths in the Arc.
Is Smoking Sun (beaten 5 3/4 lengths by Treve) better than Kizuna, beaten over 7 lengths?
Other than Treve, only other horse to run in both races was Joshua Tree. Beaten 7 lengths today, yet beaten around 14 1/2 lengths in the Arc.Although I would not personally use Joshua Tree as a guide; but
imo Cirrus Des Aigles did not need to run up to the form of his 2nd in the Champion Stakes, because Treve was below form.Value Is EverythingJust goes to show you.The best horse in the world got beaten today!No such thing as a certainty!
Maybe cirrus was underestimated but it just goes to show how much st Nicholas abbey is missed in the older horse division. Was in the form of his life when he had his injury. On fast ground he always took some beating.
Being the legendary ruler of Ante-Post betting and King of foresight,or is it King of Ante-Post betting,legendary ruler of foresight,whatever.The best thing that could have happened for those
Treve
fans was for her to get beat on her seasonal debut.As so often is the case Ladbrokes take a stand on interpreting the form as literal whereas anyone who understands Horseracing knows there is only one race connections want to win with her and thats a repeat Arc victory.She could go for the Prince of wales (2/1 she’d be odds -on if she runs) and then an Arc Trial but thats it,her season is geared quite simply towards Longchamp in October so 5/1 about her is big.I’m quite surprised at the ‘Over-rated’ comments on here about her,surely you guys can see the wood from the Trees? Write her off at your peril.Like Cormack says I’d take 5/1 about her allday over ‘Australia’ at 16/1 anyday.
If I were Criquette Head I would be wanting Thierry Jarnet back in the saddle for the season. The filly goes well for him and he seems much better suited to Treve and her style of running as she always takes a keen hold and needs settling before being pushed to lead and quicken.
That is probably what should happen but of course it won’t. No doubt people will be thinking similar thoughts without committing them to print.
Frankie has now ridden her twice. On the first occasion he made what seemed a relatively straightforward task look difficult and at no stage in yesterday’s race was she travelling as if she was going to win as the market and her previous races suggested. It is not that hard to believe that she just goes better for Jarnet.
The alternative argument is that she was either sent out half-baked or she is simply not as good as last year.
Another defeat and connections might easily decide that will be enough. Personally, I wouldn’t want to take 5/1 about her running in the Arc. At the moment it is impossible to know the make-up of the field.
I wonder what we would have been saying had she won by a short neck, not much difference other then she is the unbeaten wondermare.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I wonder what we would have been saying had she won by a short neck, not much difference other then she is the unbeaten wondermare.
I wouldn’t have thought it would have made much difference other than making it a little easier for those intent on digging out positives.
Was it such a bad run though? Trip, going, fitness were all in Cirrus favour and over the same distance and near ground got Frankel off the bridle albeit Frankel was slow out the gate. Treve was hardly going to be trained to the minute as Cormack has already alluded to that there is big fish in the pond to catch in October they still would have been confident of winning and it must have come as a setback but not exactly end of the world performance on her reappearance or is it that the horse lost? Would Frankel not be the best of all time had Zoffany stayed on to beat him at Royal Ascot?
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I wouldn’t hold much store by the result. It is early in the season, and Treve can quite easily reverse that form with Cirrus Des Aigles next time they meet. However, a note of caution – history tells you that fillies who have had a highly successful 3 year old career, who then continue racing as 4 year olds, invariably find the going that much tougher than before.
Added to the fact that The Arc is notoriously difficult to win back to back, then it is easy to see why many who backed Treve to win the race as a 3 year old ( Me !
), will now be opposing her as a 4 year old to repeat that feat.Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
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Get a double on Treve in the Arc and The New One in the Champion Hurdle, add in City to win the title (evens) and you’re laughing, that’d pay about 50/1!!!
Maybe cirrus was underestimated but it just goes to show how much st Nicholas abbey is missed in the older horse division. Was in the form of his life when he had his injury. On fast ground he always took some beating.
Not missed around Longchamp Edinahib. St Nich never produced his best going right handed.
Value Is EverythingThis kind of early season result is what makes the game fascinating but all hype aside getting narrowly beat by Cirrus Des Aigles is no disgrace for ANY horse.
Seperate point: Who on earth was doing the commentary on the Ganay on Sunday……..was it Tanya’s posh long lost brother ……..was I alone in thinking the Mrs Bouquet attempts at French pronounciations sounded absolutely terrible as did the failure of the commentary to progress and climax with the race. Poor,amateurish and detracted badly from what should have been an early season highlight.
Another defeat and connections might easily decide that will be enough. Personally, I wouldn’t want to take 5/1 about her running in the Arc. At the moment it is impossible to know the make-up of the field.
Although
"it is impossible to know the make-up of the field"
Stilvi, we can judge whether a price is value by an
average
field… And we know Treve (at her best) was a well above average Arc winner in 2013.
If
Treve puts up a performance in this year’s race she’d win 9 out of 10 Arcs.
There’s a chance her disappointing reappearance was something to do with an as yet undiagnosed injury. There’s a chance she will be retired after another defeat and/or never be good enough to reproduce that wonder moment. But…
There’s a chance (like a lot of fillies) she’s better later on in the season. There’s a chance ground was softer than she wants. Times on that October card suggest the Arc was
not
as soft as the official "soft". Yesterday’s "Very soft" ground is usually against horses who’s biggest asset is speed. Treve on reappearance racing against a race fit top notcher, a soft ground specialist with a near perfect record at Longchamp when the ground is on the soft side.
You don’t get 5/1 shots (even tremendous value 5/1 shots) without some negatives. With the Ganay conditions and it being her reappearance – is around 9 lbs much to make up in 5 months? She probably won’t win, but in my opinion has a far greater than 16.7% chance of another Arc victory, even allowing for the chance of injury/not running.
Value Is Everything
), will now be opposing her as a 4 year old to repeat that feat.
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