- This topic has 52 replies, 23 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 8 months ago by
.
- Posts
Shock horror. Despite the Frankie hype last seasons Arc heroine was narrowly defeated by the old warrior Cirrus Des Aigles. She’s out to 5/1 for the Arc now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The drift feels like a major over-reaction as the fittest horse won and Cirrus Des Aigles won’t be there in the Arc. Frankie probably came off worse than his mount, as he looked incredibly weak in the final two furlongs.
Oh dear.
Flat racing’s superstar blown away before the end of April. Never looked as if she had much in hand and that is always a worry with Frankie as pushing and shoving isn’t really his game.
Still we can look forward to the greatest horse Aidan has ever trained. Is he favourite for the Arc now?
The drift feels like a major over-reaction as the fittest horse won and Cirrus Des Aigles won’t be there in the Arc. Frankie probably came off worse than his mount, as he looked incredibly weak in the final two furlongs.
You can always nail the 5/1 heavily if you feel it’s good value now.
ATR presenters were largely full of excuses afterwards but all we heard in the build to this was how good Treve was. I have to ask if those same presenters, who are making the excuses in hindsight, backed Cirrus Des Aigles, knowing that all the reasons they are trotting out now were available as common knowledge before the race and therefore pointed to Cirrus Des Aigles being better value?
Last year’s Arc was billed as the best since Dancing Brave’s year. I didn’t buy into that at the time and stated so here. I am even less likely to believe it now. Treve wouldn’t be the first Filly not to recapture her glory days at four, I recall Oaks winner Ramruma failing to win a race at four, even being beaten in listed company. It’s too soon to write her off yet but Cirrus is a fair age now and today has to be a big disappointment for Treve fans.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The drift feels like a major over-reaction as the fittest horse won and Cirrus Des Aigles won’t be there in the Arc. Frankie probably came off worse than his mount, as he looked incredibly weak in the final two furlongs.
You can always nail the 5/1 heavily if you feel it’s good value now.
ATR presenters were largely full of excuses afterwards but all we heard in the build to this was how good Treve was. I have to ask if those same presenters, who are making the excuses in hindsight, backed Cirrus Des Aigles, knowing that all the reasons they are trotting out now were available as common knowledge before the race and therefore pointed to Cirrus Des Aigles being better value?
Kevin Blake has made numerous appearances on ATR. Absolutely brilliant at seeing every angle possible without criticising anything at all. I suppose that in a nutshell is racing journalism.
He actually thought that performance confirmed that she had retained all her ability. Really? From one of the most impressive Arc winners to getting beaten in receipt of 5lbs from one of racing’s old age pensioners.
Very early days to be writing Treve off. Her season will be geared with October wholly in mind.
I think it’s just a question of ground. Today Cirrus had everything for him: favorite ground, favorite track, favorite distance plus he took part in his third race of the season. He was fitter than Treve, and that may have made all the difference. The best form horse won on the day.
She’s not a specialist of this kind of ground as Cirrus is. She needs faster surface.
I’m absolutely not worried for the rest of the season.
Was the fact Treve was beaten disappointing? Yes
Was Treve well below form? Yes
But horses are not machines.Before today I’d have thought Treve had a 1 in 3 chance of winning this season’s Arc.
Now 1 in 4, but that still gives her (imo) a fair 3/1 chance.
But she’s
5/1 with Laddies!
Of course there’s a chance she isn’t going to be as good this year and will need to improve quite a bit on today’s race. But strange as it may seem, you don’t have to think Treve is going to win the Arc to back her for the Arc. Just ask yourself what are the chances she’s going to improve on that effort and get back to last season’s form? Has she got a better or worse than
16.7%
(5/1) chance of winning the 2014 Arc?
5/1 is 8.3% better than my estimate; a bet with a big "B".
Value Is EverythingI think it’s just a question of ground. Today Cirrus had everything for him: favorite ground, favorite track, favorite distance plus he took part in his third race of the season. He was fitter than Treve, and that may have made all the difference. The best form horse won on the day.
She’s not a specialist of this kind of ground as Cirrus is. She needs faster surface.
I’m absolutely not worried for the rest of the season.
Treve won five races last season. The ground was good, good, good to soft, soft and soft. By far her most impressive performance was on soft ground in The Arc. I can’t agree that today’s performance can be blamed on the ground.
Why is that people weren’t all over Cirrus Des Aigles today if so much was in his favour and so little in Treve’s?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Was the fact Treve was beaten disappointing? Yes
Was Treve well below form? Yes
But horses are not machines.Before today I’d have thought Treve had a 1 in 3 chance of winning this season’s Arc.
Now 1 in 4, but that still gives her (imo) a fair 3/1 chance.
But she’s
5/1 with Laddies!
Of course there’s a chance she isn’t going to be as good this year and will need to improve quite a bit on today’s race. But strange as it may seem, you don’t have to think Treve is going to win the Arc to back her for the Arc. Just ask yourself what are the chances she’s going to improve on that effort and get back to last season’s form? Has she got a better or worse than
16.7%
(5/1) chance of winning the 2014 Arc?
5/1 is 8.3% better than my estimate; a bet with a big "B".
I dare say that Ladbrokes have looked and seen that it’s a long time since any horse won two Arc’s on the trot (Alleged 1977-1978) and have decided to lay their stall out. There is little on the horizon that I could strongly put up against her though and 5/1 may look good in retrospect.
I see the wonder horse Australia has been cut 4pts to a general 16/1 and we will see on Saturday if there is any validity in that move.
Of more recent concern would be how Treve will cope if going for the Prince Of Wales at Royal Ascot. After today’s show I think 6/4 may be a ropey bet and I doubt the best price of 2/1 looks much value for a filly who has just met with her first defeat and whom has never travelled abroad thus far.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’d back Treve at 5/1 over Australia at 16/1 for the 2014 Arc all day, every day. (And all night too!)
Given the normal risks associated with ante-post betting (in this case injury and/or not training on as a 4yo) I wouldn’t be rushing in at 5/1.
5/1 for a race over five months away doesn’t scream value to me. A lot can happen between now and early October. I’d rather take say 2/1 on the day knowing the full facts AND with the guarantee my stake is refunded if something untoward were to happen.
The risks of AP betting I guess….hence why my AP bets are few and far between.
Why is that people weren’t all over Cirrus Des Aigles today if so much was in his favour and so little in Treve’s?
Simply because Treve is one of the most impressive Arc-winner of the last ten years.
Cirrus is eight years old now, he’s quite an old boy. I think he was underestimated in this race.Why is that people weren’t all over Cirrus Des Aigles today if so much was in his favour and so little in Treve’s?
Simply because Treve is one of the most impressive Arc-winner of the last ten years.
Cirrus is eight years old now, he’s quite an old boy. I think he was underestimated in this race.At most this might go some way to proving she is not the greatest filly ever (for those that believe that) but finishing second to such a good horse as this on a reappearance doesn’t make defeat in this years arc much more likely.
Here is something for you french speakers.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SojXKz8sjsSHL
Why is that people weren’t all over Cirrus Des Aigles today if so much was in his favour and so little in Treve’s?
Simply because Treve is one of the most impressive Arc-winner of the last ten years.
Cirrus is eight years old now, he’s quite an old boy. I think he was underestimated in this race.It is true that Cirrus was probably a little underrated today but the greater factor was that Treve had been
overrated
on her seasonal debut.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.