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You hardly have to be a devotee of ‘Trends’ to be considering a horse’s last time out performance. If a horse has finished 1st or 2nd lto most ‘form students’ will notice. And as cormack points out there is unlikely to be any ‘value’ attached to it. I am a devotee of the historical/statistical angle but I would be more interested in something a little less obvious than that.
I absolutely agree with Sloochie. Although I can’t bring myself to pay as much attention to the statistics as I would like (until after the event, when it’s likely to be too late), I believe bookies generally operate on the basis of trends, and the real shrewdies, such as Seagull (I believe it’s Seagull, the bloke who’s written a book on trends) seem to have it down to a fine art.
The closest I come to it, is usually looking at the tables of respectively the leading trainers and leading jockeys on the RP racecard. I also sometimes remember to look at the record of the favourite, which some papers give.
I think you need to grow up synthesing these kinds of factors at the outset of your winner-finding (in however ancillary a manner)  – which probably means having your father’s guidance at the outset.
I should add that the slavish adherence of many to trends can work to your advantage. This is particularly noticeable with regard to the betting. I absolutely do not assume that because a price goes out at a rate of knots, it is necessarily a reflection  of its chance or its connections confidence.
I haven’t perfected it by any means, but seldom does a day go by when I don’t see price shorten or started short in the betting, in what I consider a significant context, and the horse wins. More commonly though, and admittedly more speculatively, since the very price ranges tend to start and finish much higher, the last thing I want is for more than one tipster to mention an outsider I fancy. ÂÂÂ
Of course, there are all sorts of trends, some potentially more significant than others, and the point I suppose is not to be too slavish about heeding any of them, but at least considering them in proportion.
(Edited by Grimes at 11:46 pm on Feb. 20, 2006)<br>
(Edited by Grimes at 11:48 pm on Feb. 20, 2006)
I think maybe the most attractive aspects of betting to most of us is to see our judgment vindicated. (Unfortunately, the corollary also holds true of course…!).
So I suppose it is hardly surprising if we favour this, over having the satisfaction of saying to ourselves, "Well, over the year I made so much money, so astutely did I read the prevailing trends, and defer to them as the general basis for my bets".  Hence the existence of bookmakers who do precisely that, with awesome success.
In case you international punters haven’t seen this… (Don’t read the blurb first. Read it after you’ve seen it. Just click on "Click here to view the spot):
http://www.shots.net/news.asp?id=2971
(Edited by Grimes at 12:37 am on Feb. 21, 2006)
Apologies for putting you away on Bregawn UN. I was thinking of Burroughill Lad. A young’un like me can be expected to make the odd mistake from such bygone days!:biggrin:
Quote: from clivex on 7:11 pm on Feb. 20, 2006[br]Nixer is a serious prat…as ever
:angry: <br>
Quote: from Slooch Arm on 11:48 am on Feb. 17, 2006[br]<br>I’m still waiting for the Irish backlash on this thread, but doesn’t look like its gonna materialise.<br>
He then goes on to set up another thread under the dubious title of "trends" . Apparently he is only able to point to four horses that trends show can’t win. All four horses are Irish. He then refers to the first contributer to his thread as "jackass". Maybe he is a genuine poster. Maybe this thread is about trends.
Whatever.
(Edited by Nixer at 7:30 am on Feb. 22, 2006)
Although it is difficult for me to refrain from throwing personal insults, I shall.
It isn’t my fault if 4 prominent horses that fall into the trends are trained in Ireland.
The reason I referred to an Irish backlash is because the general opinion I have is that the Irish tend to get a little over sensitive regarding their horses and this is reflected sometimes (I suspect) in their punting.
FYI – a jackass is a bird and nothing more siniter than that. An apology was made if any offence was caused.
Stop looking for controversy where there is none. I’m not anti Irish at all. Sometimes their over zealous attitude to their horses benefits me (coz I may get better prices on non Irish opponents) and sometimes it hinders me for the opposite reasons. So what?
The trends thread was exactly that and I will be more than happy to revisit the thread when Cheltenham is done.
Just to suit you I will try and find another well fancied animal that doesn’t fit the trend that is not trained in Ireland……………. On second thoughts, no I won’t
Quote: from Slooch Arm on 12:54 pm on Feb. 22, 2006[br]FYI – a jackass is a bird and nothing more siniter than that. <br>
:notworthy:<br>
I don’t care that you called me a jackass, but we all know what context you meant it in, doesn’t matter about the meaning of the word.
You lot wanna get a grip with reality for God’s sake. Stop being pathetic and spineless. If you’ve got an opinion let’s have it – if you haven’t then don’t come on whining about posts.
This forum is to express opinions and to learn from others and if we can have a laugh along the way fine.
Reading the post about Jackane’s hard life of racings hard knocks reminded me of Angela’s Ashes and the old Hovis adverts!!!!!!! I pay for Sky all by myself, I have to save up to go blah blah blah. So what, do you think we’re all from the country set? No we’re not.
Pick your dummy up, stick it back in your trap and keep reading, you might learn something to your advantage.
You won’t learn much from this thread. What next slooch. The ground breaking statistic that you shouldn’t back chasers who carry more than 11 stone in the handicap chases.
Fine Nixer the Omniscient from now on – you may not have but there will be somebody that did.
They will also have learned that you are a plonker of the 1st water
Slooch, by getting people to TRY and turn against me will make people hate you much more. From what we have seen, you are a Yes man.
I think your sole intention on this forum is to wind people up Slooch and to look for a reaction. There have been plenty of your like that have come and gone, so get off your high horse, we’ve all seen it before. <br>Racing is of secondary importance to you on here!
Try and turn people against you? Jeeeez, what are you on? This isn’t the school yard it’s a racing forum.
If you check all my posts you will not find any that are there other than to stimulate debate about horses.
I have firm opinions whether they are agreed with or not is not of any concern to me.
There are some on here who analyse races in a different way to me and that is where I learn.
All this nonsense about winding people up is exactly that – nonsense.
If someone makes a mistake they should be ready to take the flak coz its bound to come.
I would however remind you that this started coz Nixer decided I was anti Irish!!!
Although it is difficult for me to refrain from throwing personal insults, I shall.
You contradict yourself about 3 posts down. You talk about having debates and so on. When you started this thread, i replied with a long post in complete disagreement to yours with all the relevant evidence and so on, and a post which many agreed with later on, and you start calling me a ‘jackass’? And you say you want debates???<br>I have never insulted anybody personally on here and i never will, but you are going to end up like Gigginstown Man unless you stop with all the insults. I’m not going to slag you off, but chill with the insults, and let’s get some discussions going.
Oh, and if I make a mistake, i should expect to get crushed for it??? Why?? One or two mistakes compared to about 50 or 60 good posts??? Everyone has made their point about my R&SA mistake – but yet you continue and I want to know why. You sound like the Daily Mirror. Oh, he was smoking a cigarette when he said he had quit. Let’s publish it on the front page, and tear him to shreds for all to see. You need to forgive and forget.
Quote: from ULTIMATE NIGHTMARE on 8:53 pm on Feb. 22, 2006[br]Right here i go gibberish to follow :biggrin: i’ve narrowed it down to six for the Arkle.
RD, MG, VPU, BIF, MD & COH. @ 4,10,10,16,25,40 as long as the RD loses i should make a profit. If MD or COH (or any of the Six) are likely to be over 25’s on the day they would be discounted.
So basically what you’re saying is that you are going to LAY Racing Demon in the Arkle.
Yeah, exactly – you’ve backed six horses to win the arkle???
And who are COH and MD??? I’ve only got dial-up so it will take forever for bet365’s page to load up so i can’t check.
There is surely no way BIF would win the Arkle. He’s only had the one start over fences and surely that’s not enough experience. Unless he’s run since Boxing Day???
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