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Tim (tbracing) is doing some articles which we’re publishing here on TRF – He’s going to look at a few trainer angles- here’s the first of these – Sir Michael Stoute and how his runners do after a break. An interesting read.
https://theracingforum.co.uk/racing-articles/trainer-profile-sir-michael-stoute/
Tim makes good points, Trainers statistics / profiles are important to any serious punter. First and second time out, also time of year can be informative.
Value Is EverythingStats can really profile trainers, like for instance Tim Easterby is under 4% in March and April with a 100 day lay off. Certainly one to avoid early season.
Here is a taking stat and profile for James Tate. 50 to 1000 day lay offs last here he had an unbelievable strike rate. I found it when interested in his Intuitive but was coming off a 50 todd day break, so initially alarmed me. But when into stats it was a strong factor in my decision to back him.
Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place%
56 23 41.07 +14.37 34 60.71
A staggering performance.
Haha, I know. I keep some nuggets to myself lol. Most other seasons he was no more than normal and below average on that. I think last season was an exception as a one off. Be surprised if happened again.
And to be fair, a lot of good stats do not get factored in enough because the main emphasis is always on form ratings initially. I won’t reveal some others I have but there are statistics that have come good for me that have been going on a long time and are still profitable and consistent.
Statistics is only part of my make up. First and foremost I think ability is the most important factor. Whether you judge that by what you see, form ratings, speed ratings etc. When you have a good idea of ability you can marry in all the other factors.
Alignak was the first out for 2020 under this angle and kicked things off with a 5/2 win
https://www.sportinglife.com/images/news/900×506/d2f1df1c-d330-4f03-b89b-4206180f12e3.jpg
Look at Buicks smile and grin
Colosus
Thought would bump this up, not sure if anyone has followed this line this year.
So far this term in 2021 there have been 14 runners, 8 winners @57.14% to a +9.46 profit.
Last year it finished at 16 runners, 5 winners @31.25% to a small +4.25 profit.
This trend going back to 2003 that I have stats for is historically operating at 33.33% from 303 bets.
The strongest this trend has performed is at 66.67% in 2008 to a profit. It has only been below 20% twice.
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