Traders Corner….

[MrE]

Gingertipster….. now THAT was an enjoyable post, well worded, concise and to the point…. and not at all arrogant, thank you.
Well as I might disagree with you on certain aspects, at least your argument was backed up by a sound reasons and logic, that I cannot have any complaints about and it’s far better coming with your reasons as to why or why not, than to just jump in with both feet…. dicussions taken place like that are beneficial to all.
OK, I would agree with the others, that we try to keep this thread for Trading discussions and give roulette a wide berth. On your specific points on trading, I cannot agree with you… I listen to you and absorb it, but at this juncture I believe that you are wrong. I may be proved wrong over the coming weeks/months, but I really cannot see where a knowledge of the sport that your trading on has any relevance to following or opposing the market…. I am not following a horse or a footy team or a tennis player, I only have eyes for market movement. I strike a bet, the market moves one way or the other and I green up…. it might only be 10p in the green, but it’s a green, the fact that I’m backing Frankel or Desert Orchid NEVER enters the equation.
I had 6 trades today and I never looked at the horses name once, just the graphs…. in the second race, the fav had been shortening all day whilst the 2nd and 3rd favs were levelling out and drifting….. at 8 minutes before the "off" both the 2nd and 3rd favs were dropping like a stone, I read that if the money was going for those two, then the fav must be under pressure and I layed the fav there and then and came out with a £5 profit because the fav did drift. Now, was I right or was I wrong to play this way???…. these are reasons why I wanted discussions on the thread…. but most importantly Ginger, was I had no knowledge of any of the horses and nor can I even remember what race it was…. for this reason I have to disagree with you about needing knowledge of that particular sport.
It could be that I was just a lucky old git, but this is where you come in….. give reasons why you require to know the correct odds of a pair of horses to make the perfect trade, I honestly can’t see that it’s required because we are not betting horses, we are betting market movements and they are two entirely separate entities…..
At long last this may turn into a sensible thread…. I live in hope….

MrE

[Gingertipster]

Gingertipster,

If you want to discuss "Roulette" in more depth then, please start a new thread.

Regards

Thought my last post made it clear I do not want to talk about "R" in any thread.

Value Is Everything

[Matron]

Just, in case you decided to resurrect it again.

[Gingertipster]

Thought I had already answered your question MrE.

Unless a punter knows the sport and has an opinion on the fair odds for the bet – there is no knowing when the market will turn.

If a punter knows the sport well (and knows the Mathematics of Betting) he/she can identify horses who are under and over-bet. Being able to back a selection @ 13/2 knowing the price under-estimates its chance and knowing (or at least having an excellent idea) the market will shorten it up. Even having a good idea how short the selection will go, so can trade out. If you look at my betting thread you’ll see I backed Astaire for the Gimcrack @ 13/2, believing Paddy Power to have made a rick. "Knowing" that its form entitled it to start @ much shorter (if I was someone who likes Trading) I could have just backed Astaire and waited for the market to change, then laid it back as it got close to my idea of its true chance of winning.

Also, if you look at my write up for the Judmonte International Stakes, you can see that when final decs were made I identified Declaration Of War @ 16/1 and Trading Leather @ 7.8/1 as much bigger than they should be. Pretty quickly the 16/1 disappeared. Would you have traded out @ 14/1 MrE? Because he remained that price for a long time, before shortening right up to 7/1 SP. Trading Leather actually lengthened to 9/1 . Now If you’d backed Trading Leather using your "trade out" system MrE, you’d have laid Trading Leather back at a loss (having gone out from 7.8/1 to 9/1). But me knowing the form, 9/1 looked an unbelievably good price and worth backing again! Trading Leather then shortened up to 5/1 SP (ok Pricewise might have had something to do with it, but great minds think alike ).

It is easy to say that all a punter needs to do is to "follow the market", it may look as though all a market does is go:

Up, up, up, up, up, up, up, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down up, up up, up, up, up, down, down down.

But in practice the ups are usually penetrated by one or two downs and vice versa. So if a punter does not know the subject it is a lot more difficult to know when to trade and trade out. With a few opposites thrown in to the above:

Up, up, up, down, down, up, up, up, up, down, up, down, down, down, up, up, down, down, down, up, down, up, up, down, up, down, up, up, up, down, down, up, down.

..And of course knowing where to trade and trade out might seem easy when looking back at past sequences (ie knowing what comes next). In practice, punters do not know what price is coming next; however, it is easier (NB not easy but "easier") to predict the market if having an educated opinion of the selection. ie A punter may watch the market to "help", but by studying the subject (and knowing the Mathematics of Betting) – a punter has a really good idea of the right price to back/lay in the first place. Relying on "market only" is in my opinion asking for trouble MrE.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

…I suppose the "Mathematics Of Betting" will now be the next subject to be exiled from the thread.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

I think you’d get a better response to a "Trading" thread in the Horse Racing section MrE.

Value Is Everything

[MrE]

.I suppose the "Mathematics Of Betting" will now be the next subject to be exiled from the thread.

I’m sure that wont be the case Ginge, not when you put it over in such an eloquent and charming manner…
I started this in the "systems" section because I thought that there might just be a systematic approach…. something like, "only Lay up to 4.5" or "always place the back bet first"… there might even be a fixed drop in price that would constitute a "steamer".
I still remain unconvinced by your argument about odds that constitute a good trade, surely, ANY bet that drops (or raises) 5 ticks represents a good trade, and that can happen from any price, it doesn’t have to be at a price that you calculate as being value…. I think…. but even if you are correct, and I don’t doubt that you could be, but how would I go about finding a source for these "tissues"… I’m certainly not going to pay for private tissues, so I suppose I would have to use the tissue readily available from the racing press, these boys are supposed to be the best in the game, so one would assume that their view on prices must be better than average. Even if following these prices is helpful, it doesn’t tell me which horses are going to drift and which are going to "steam", only the moving market can give that information…. I still remain confused.
Are you perhaps confusing normal betting of backing perceived value, against what is required for trading, I see these as having no comparison, maybe that’s me being thick again, but I cannot see how your value price of 9/2 is going to help me when your horse actually opens up at 9/2…. that tells me that I’ve got a good price, it does not tell me which way the market is going, it doesn’t even give me a pointer as to which way the market will go…. you see, as good as your pricing is, you could be way out, but the market never can be…. if it’s going down, it’s going down, I’ve just gotta jump on at the right time…. still not convinced, but turning out to be a good discussion….

MrE

[MrE]

Matron…. yes mate, I’m using Geeks Toy and finding their graphs pretty helpful. The biggest single help that is doing me proud is hitting the resistance, but the Betfair graph tells it’s own story too. I’m getting there, and more importantly, I’m enjoying it…. I suppose happiness comes in many forms, but having a £5 profit no matter which horse wins is a pretty good happiness factor…
I have found it pretty profitable so far, but I would also urge caution. About two weeks ago I had £50 layed on at 4/1 and then Betfair went down…. there was panic stations for a couple of minutes and the adrenaline was running down my legs…. I managed to pull up Betdaq and save the day, but it was a big warning. Betdaq saved me then, but it could have been MY connection that dropped out and that would have done for me and I’d have risked losing £200. The selection lost anyway, so I was in no danger, but the point is, I could have been…. so it’s a warning that things can and do go wrong and this is best played to smaller stakes until there are other safeguards in place….

MrE

[Nathan Hughes]

MrE, I won a book in a competition on here called ‘Winning it Back’ an autobiography by the fat bloke of the telly Gary Wiltshire, I’ll have to look it up tomorrow or over the weekend it’s a fair few years old but he was saying that this trading is the future of betting and the serious players pay for the faster pictures and gadgets and know next to nothing about the sport but are betting the odds movement like what you were saying, one lad went from working in a supermarket to owning his own house and flash car within a year.

[DELETED]

My best friend at school had ginger hair.
My favourite biscuit is the ginger nut.
I even had a ginger cat called ginger when I was younger.

http://i44.tinypic.com/ea5yrt.jpg

Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

[Gingertipster]

.I suppose the "Mathematics Of Betting" will now be the next subject to be exiled from the thread.

I’m sure that wont be the case Ginge, not when you put it over in such an eloquent and charming manner…

I started this in the "systems" section because I thought that there might just be a systematic approach…. something like, "only Lay up to 4.5" or "always place the back bet first"… there might even be a fixed drop in price that would constitute a "steamer".
I still remain unconvinced by your argument about odds that constitute a good trade, surely, ANY bet that drops (or raises) 5 ticks represents a good trade, and that can happen from any price, it doesn’t have to be at a price that you calculate as being value….

correct

, "ANY bet that drops (or raises) 5 ticks represents a good trade". What I am saying is: It is far easier to identify that "correct" time to get involved – if the punter knows the subject and understands odds.

I think…. but even if you are correct, and I don’t doubt that you could be, but how would I go about finding a source for these "tissues"… I’m certainly not going to pay for private tissues, so I suppose I would have to use the tissue readily available from the racing press, these boys are supposed to be the best in the game, so one would assume that their view on prices must be better than average. Even if following these prices is helpful, it doesn’t tell me which horses are going to drift and which are going to "steam", only the moving market can give that information…. I still remain confused.

There is however, no need for anyone to make a "tissue". By "understanding odds", I mean a punter should know the Mathematics Of Betting; that 9/2 = 18.2%, 5/1 = 16.7%, 11/2 = 15.4% etc. ie Knowledgeable punters see 9/2 against any name and immediately knows not to back it unless believing it a better than 18% chance of winning.

You may (like most punters) think it impossible for a punter to have a reliable idea of what is and what is not roughly an 18% (or any %) chance. But if he/she knows the subject well MrE, I assure you it is possible.

Are you perhaps confusing normal betting of backing perceived value, against what is required for trading, I see these as having no comparison, maybe that’s me being thick again, but I cannot see how your value price of 9/2 is going to help me when your horse actually opens up at 9/2…. that tells me that I’ve got a good price, it does not tell me which way the market is going, it doesn’t even give me a pointer as to which way the market will go…. you see, as good as your pricing is, you could be way out, but the market never can be…. if it’s going down, it’s going down, I’ve just gotta jump on at the right time…. still not convinced, but turning out to be a good discussion….

MrE

tell

"which horses are going to drift and which are going to "steam"", but it does give a

very good idea

of when a selection is likely to "drift" or "steam". It’s all about probability. Any individual odd may or may not be correctly assessed, but in most markets someone who knows what he/she is doing will have a good idea of the fair price. So if believing the right price is 9/2 and 6/1 is available… why wouldn’t the punter back it @ 6/1? If he/she does not back it – then there are (in all probability) going to be other knowledgeable punters who identify 6/1 as good value and take it, forcing the price to shorten.

Knowledgeable punters "know" (or at least have a very good idea) when a selection is value; much easier than those with no knowledge of the sport. It is also knowledgeable punters that dominate the market. So it is possible for them to predict (or at least have an excellent idea) when something is going to "steam" or "drift".

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

You are gingerphobic Nathan

Rubbish, Mark!!

My best friend at school had ginger hair.
My favourite biscuit is the ginger nut.
I even had a ginger cat called ginger when I was younger.

Please can you tell me where you took that quote from Nathan, because I do not recognise it as coming from me.

It seems to me you have manufactured the quote Nathan, as I said no such thing!

Value Is Everything

[MrE]

Awww!!!, c’mon Nathan, give him a break…. he is behaving himself and at least he puts up a good argument in his favour…. all we can expect at this stage, but he will bend, we will change him….
Gingertipster…. that’s a mouthful, I’ve gotta shorten it to Ginge, no offence intended. I really can see what your saying, but I still cannot see how it’s relevant to trading mate… (see, that’s friendly, I’m even calling you mate)…. but I really don’t think that YOU grasp exactly what I’m trying to say…. either that, or you are too stuck in your ways to look from different perspectives… and that is NOT knocking what you profoundly believe in. It’s probably better explained by me guiding you through what is my normal race.
Ten minutes prior to the race that I’m interested in I start to evaluate…. prices do not matter at any stage (sorry)…. the Betfair charts (and others) show me market movements and what are referred to as resistance points. It is these charts/graphs that tell me to bet or not to bet, they also tell me to back or to lay, but at no point whatsoever, do I look at the PRICE, because it does not interest me until it is time to place a bet… upon reaching a position that satisfies me, then I place the bet… and still I am not at all interested in the price at that time. I am only concerned with waiting 3 or 4 ticks before "hedging" that bet and ensuring a guaranteed profit…. for all your words about finding the right price, whilst it is an admirable trait, I don’t find it at all necessary in completing a good trade….
I am not trying to be rude or denigrate you in any way…. but I think that you have got it wrong…. your rules do not apply in trading, well, not from where I sit….. I must admit that it would be an advancement if we could get a few more members to put their thoughts forward, because this looks like a battle between Ginge and MrE and that isn’t what this is about…. we all want to try and make a bit of money, to do that we have to pool ideas, but a discussion between just two people hardly warrants a discussion….
It’s a high probability that me or Ginge will never agree on anything, but that shouldn’t stop the rest from voicing their thoughts…. I think that this thread can go from strength to strength if members join in… and we’ve gone some way to house training Ginge (but still work in progress)… c’mon guys, I really do think that this is the new way of betting as Nathan says, we need to give it a try…. and it is OK for Ginger to bring us back down to earth as long as he does it nicely…. the question is…. does Ginger know the meaning of "nicely"….

Joking Ginge….

MrE

[Gingertipster]

MrE,
"Ginge" is what I’ve called myself from the start, so no problem with that.

Believing you can back or lay at any price and the market will go the way you want afterwards for "guaranteed profit" is… well, hadn’t better say. Fact is the market can go either way once you’ve had that initial bet. "Wait 3 or 4 ticks" and you’ll more than likely end up with the market going in the opposite direction you’re hoping for.

You should also remember exchanges charge commisssion. So to trade out at only fractionally better than your original price is not a good bet at all.

Value Is Everything

[MrE]

Yeah…. that’s one thing that I will definitely agree with you with???…. agree with you with???…. that sounds nonsensical…. that commission is a bit of a pig and does make you think twice about "scalping"…. but "swing" trading can be quite profitable.
And you are also correct in saying that the market can move against you just as soon as you put your money down, but you still have the ability to trade back out for a scratch trade which costs you nothing…. minimal risk (as long as you don’t pop out for a cuppa).
Whilst this is all very interesting and amenable now, it’s hardly moving forward and catching fire…. perhaps you are correct once again Ginge and this is probably not the forum to find enlightenment…. The Toy has it’s own forum, perhaps I would do better going through all those posts.

MrE

[Nathan Hughes]

It was a non ginger phobic, ginger joke. I think……

If you are doing well with your trading MrE and alot of traders I hear have no idea of the subject they are playing just betting the odds/prices than it can only be of benefit to you and give you a edge if you know the subject. The bloke who won the money in the Wiltshire book apparently had little to no knowledge of horse racing but was a good race reader when betting in-play but surely he would benefit from knowing who are the bridle horse’s that find nothing when push comes to shove and likewise which horses respond when under pressure etc.

Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

[MrE]

That’s a pretty reasonable assumption Nathan, and I would think that it’s pretty close to the mark. As with Ginge and his insistance that I need a knowledge of the odds, that too I have no doubt is correct…. but I was hoping for something a little easier, something that no longer taxes the old grey matter, as said to Ginge, I was hoping that some bright spark might just find a systematic approach. I have one that I use to spot the right race and then the right horse to concentrate my efforts on…. it does not need any prices to hinder me nor form from which to gain knowledge. It’s been lucky for me thus far, but perhaps that’s just what it was…. luck and nothing else…. but I don’t think so…. so I will just push onward in my search for that elusive little rainbow and hopefully enjoy the journey…. it’s been fun so far, but that might change if I get a string of bets go against me….

MrE

[Gingertipster]

I wish you luck MrE.

Value Is Everything

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