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At least you don’t back half the field like I do! Still sweet on Dayia, especially now she’s got a good draw. Less weight than last year. Needs a bit of give in the ground which I think she’ll get. Also like Deauville Flyer and Aaim to Prosper.
Boy oh boy! All my picks get a duff draw.
I spent ages studying this last night and came up with a new shortlist of three;
Swingkeel
Deauville Flyer
Universal TruthIn the end I passed over Swingkeel because he is just too slow and ran poorly last year in this same race, albeit from a poor draw. He’ll stay alright but I can’t see him winning.
Universal Truth – well the value has gone, he’s inexperienced and I’m not certain he;s guaranteed to stay. However, if there is one horse who could run away with this race it is him.
In the end I backed Deauville Flyer at 20’s with Billys. Was strongly fancied in the Northumberland Plate but didn’t get the run of the race. Been rested for this and King Kieran is on board.
Will do a small stakes tricast and forecast cover bets just in case.
You watch, my original picks will probably dominate the race!
I quite like the look of Sentry Duty for this race.
Distance wont be a problem, will go on the ground, has a decent draw and seemingly goes well fresh.
Good jockey on board and 9/1 looks like a decent bet.
The other one in the field that i like is Dayia.
2lbs less than when finishing 4th in the race last season, has a decent draw this season and looks a good value EW bet at 16/1,
They are my 2 against the field.
Sentry Duty – who has a lot more class and ability than a lot of the field, and know he will stay.
Dayia – 2lbs off from last year and hoping he can improve on his 4th last season.
Famous last words, but I think Dayia is a bomb proof ew bet and wouldn’t swap her with any of the others. Keep going round in circles and coming back to her. Also backed Palomar today, although my notes say ‘will not stay’.Soon find out, I suppose[annoyingly missed the 50/1 on offer and ended up with 40’s]. 5 and 6 year olds have a good record of placing in the race. For once nearly all of my ante post bets have got a good draw. Bet I don’t get one in the first 4 after a week of studying it. Even started working out the times that some of them had won at over 2 miles before I started to question my own sanity.I rather fancied Swingkeel but don’t think he likes Newmarket. He’s had a bit of a break, though [the magic 40 day one] so could surprise me.
Gaz, can’t agree with you about the distance being no problem for Sentry Duty. I think the distance will be his biggest problem.
You may point to him winning a 3 mile hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, but that would be very misleading. I was there that day and believe me they went a snail’s pace for the vast majority of the race. If you don’t believe me then watch a reply, if you’ve got the patience! He only had two rivals that day.
Looking through the rest of his form leads me to believe that the trip will find him out.
I rather thought that Ghimaar was going to be Henderson’s main contender; pity he had a problem.
How about Palomar, Your Majesty? I’ve noticed he’s rather well-handicapped and has an ace draw.
I remember his mother running a blinder in the Cmbridgeshire! I certainly wouldn"t put you off him but not for me!
Deauville Flyer for me.
25/1 and 11/4 last time when I think he got outpaced. This longer trip and fierce gallop will be more up his street and any rain would be music to his ears.
Good luck!
Zip
Very tentative selections in Dayia who I backed along with Mith Hill in her only win this year at Haydock. Aaim to Prosper is one I have backed but have never seen win money out of. Hopefully that will change tomorrow.
Both stay the trip although Aim To Prosper is touch and go.
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Deauville Flyer for me.
25/1 and 11/4 last time when I think he got outpaced. This longer trip and fierce gallop will be more up his street and any rain would be music to his ears.
Good luck!
Zip
Agree completely. Zip.
Won a fast run 2m at York, then unlucky in the Plate (should surely have finished close up), he then ran an Ebor trial which proved not enough of a test. Sent back up to 2m, he was thwarted by the stop/go pace and, with a good pace, good draw and an excellent jockey, should be hard to keep out of the frame.Hello,
If, and a big if, everything drops right, SWINGKEEL must have a sporting chance. The form is there…
regards,
doyley
Could put half of them down, but narrowed it down to Aaim To Prosper, Kayf Aramis, and Sentry Duty.
Couldn’t make my mind up, so had a few quid on Simonside @ 90’s and 100’s. You never know! Ha!
Very tentative selections in Dayia who I backed along with Mith Hill in her only win this year at Haydock.
Aaim to Prosper is one I have backed but have never seen win money out of. Hopefully that will change tomorrow.
Both stay the trip although Aim To Prosper is touch and go.
He owes me nothing!
Well done Nulty and others who backed the winner.
Here,here, never even looked at it!
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