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I’ve never been a committed ante-post bettor, if only for the fact that assessing a race takes an absolute age. But my outlook has changed somewhat this season and whilst I haven’t been investing heavily, I’ve certainly been keeping a closer on eye on particular horses with a view to future commitments.
Cotillion is one such horse, who came to my attention when finishing well under a ‘subdued’ Tom Eaves at Haydock two weeks ago. A five-length victory at the Liverpool venue in July was undeniably impressive and he followed that with an arguably improved performance when stepped up to two miles at Newmarket next time out. He looks ideally suited to the demands of the Cesarewitch, will relish the likely easy October ground and is almost assured a reasonable pace.
I’ve taken the 33/1 ahead of his run at Yarmouth this afternoon; I’ll be interested to see how he fares against Red Cadeaux.
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Tough race to win and I wish you luck with that but I think you should look again. Tom Eaves coudn’t have hit him harder with a baseball bat giving him 5 of the hardest cracks I’ve seen in along time.
Horse has been in good form which leads me to believe he has little chance of beating My Arch at Newmarket. Ian Williams is a perfectionist, runs his horses on merit and leaves nothing to chance when they go racing. He’s also a fully exposed animal IMO and if he doesn’t beat Red Cadeaux getting 10lbs he would look very badly in at Newmarket being 2lbs worse off at the alloted weights.
Granted he looks like he could stay for ever but whether he has the pace to keep himslef in contention in the Ces is another matter.
Horse I like for this is Hawk Mountain who funnily enough was ridden by Tom Eaves at York before winning at the same course next time out. This horse is a bit of a charachter and when beaten by Deauville Flyer, although eased by Tom Eaves when beaten you wouldn’t have had 10p on him to win a seller next time out.
However John Quinn’s horses wern’t exactly running well and on his return to York 2 months later he landed a nice few bets and looked a totally different animal.
He may have looked like he had a hard race but as I said he looks a real charatchter and you can se in the last few yards he had loads left in the tank.
I don’t know who rides him yet but hopefully Jamie Spencer will be available or someone with a good pair of hands that can kid this horse through the race. If he’s in contention I wouldn’t back anything at the weights to beat him.
Unfortunately he’s not straightforward which makes him a dodgy bet but he lacks nothing in ability.
Taking a step backwards Tim Easterby is an Easterby and you wouldn’t know what the man is thinking. When Deauville Flyer hacked up at York it was one of the best staying handicap performances of the season.
He won that easily you can be certain from there on in the Cesarewitch was more on his mind than the race Hawk Mountain won at York.
He’s more straight foreward than Hawk Mountain and is probably the safer bet.
Deauville Flyer for me but I’m having agood ew bet on Hawk Mountain as well.
tesport Cesarewitch – 16/10/2010
I’ve taken the 33/1 ahead of his run at Yarmouth this afternoon; I’ll be interested to see how he fares against Red Cadeaux.
I wish you the best of luck with that one, he doesn’t strike me like the horse for this race. With a low win rate and even his seconds at no more than 1m4f I find it hard to believe he’ll manage, also Fist mentioned My Arch that will defiantly outrun him. I hope he runs well this afternoon, either way I’m sure you’ll have your insights for the upcoming Ces.
I’ve been looking at Hawk Mountain and Deauville Flyer and they both seem to me as having the same chances, but Deauville Flyer Proved himself at york over 2m and I agree he looks a bit more straightforward and moreover he has this ratio pattern of 3 bad races against a win and if he is not due to race before the 16th of Oct, perhaps this mysterious pattern is something to look at.
For me, I go with Admiral Barry, his last 4 months were phenomenal, and testify over his improvement due to a different training system. He seems to me as one that will get either of three places, hopefully the win one.
For me, I go with Admiral Barry, his last 4 months were phenomenal, and testify over his improvement due to a different training system. He seems to me as one that will get either of three places, hopefully the win one.
He’s got to be the one to beat on current form but Mount Helicon is likely to have a big pull in the weights compared with Galway where he looked to stay on well but was done for toe by the winner.
Anyone fancy Dayia for this one
?
I backed her at 50’s lasy year, think she ran very poorly last time out. Its not set in stone she’ll even run next sat.
Aaim To Prosper, a h-b to Hurricane Alan, is an interesting horse for the Ces. He’s a course winner, came 7th of 32 last year, 3rd in the Ascot Stakes this year, first in his group, and had fair form over 10F in his youth, including a RPSF of 96 when beaten 10 lengths in the Group 2, Grand Criterium de St Cloud won by Passage of Time.
He’s trained by Meehan and seems to like some give in the ground. He’s carrying 2 lbs more than last year, but I get the impression he’s ben laid out for it. Like a lot of others, alas. He seems to be about 10 or 11 bs well in – nice for such a distance – though I’m no expert at such calculations.
I keep going back to
Red Cadeauxs
Chester Cup run and his latest C/D run at Newmarket against
Ajaan
,i have backed them both!
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Laying is my game. Princess, you’ve done your cash on both those muppets. Want a third go?
Laying is my game. Princess, you’ve done your cash on both those muppets. Want a third go?
Thats why you never put any winners up is it Chism?
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You’d never know because you have trouble seeing beyond your own nose. Besides, I thought it was a racing forum not a tipster only forum.
You’d never know because you have trouble seeing beyond your own nose. Besides, I thought it was a racing forum not a tipster only forum.
If i had trouble seeing beyond my nose i wouldn"t share my vast racing knowledge with the likes of you chiswiz and put up the most impressive strike rate on here! Be grateful i even bother to respond to your disrespectful remarks you make to your King as i still haven"t found a post or thread you have made that is worth a mention! I am guessing you are very new to racing and want to learn! Keep watching!
At this stage I’m homing in on Gala Evening, Majestic Concorde and Kayf Aramis.
However, I’ll hold off until the draw comes out as a low draw is a huge negative in this race.
Only 1 in 20 winners drawn in single figures and 9 of the last 10 drawn lower than 18.
My quest for the 100/1 winner has led me to back Lang Shining, who is obviously only there to give connections a day out. However, if he also gets a good draw Deauville Flyer will tick a lot of boxes, including having a break of 4 weeks. Should have got on as soon as I saw the jockey booking, but didn’t get out yesterday [don’t get out much..]. Hawk Mountain has had a break also. Right at the bottom
Regal Park is interesting. Has only won
a class 4. Has won a 2 mile race as well. But it’s all down to the draw,and I should have waited till then if I had any sense [haven’t].
Bobby Bluebell, I expect you noticed that in relation to his NH form (where he was also improving a good deal), Kayf Aramis is very well handicapped – particularly for a staying race like the Ces.
Someone on here told me, Fist, maybe, that the NH handicap figure will be 42 lbs higher than a horse’s corresponding flat h’cap mark.
Bobby Bluebell, I expect you noticed that in relation to his NH form (where he was also improving a good deal), Kayf Aramis is very well handicapped – particularly for a staying race like the Ces.
Someone on here told me, Fist, maybe, that the NH handicap figure will be 42 lbs higher than a horse’s corresponding flat h’cap mark.
Kayf Aramis would be nearer 60lb difference Grimes! Thanks to winning at the Cheltenham festival a couple of years ago! If the Cesarewich was run at York i would give him an outside chance!
How about Palomar, Your Majesty? I’ve noticed he’s rather well-handicapped and has an ace draw.
Initially, when I read up on Weld’s horse, I was very keen on it, but as time has passed I’ve lost that sense, though the fact that it’s Weld’s, and he’s sent it over for a top handicap, gives me pause. Also, it seems to be very quite strongly fancied. I expect I’ll pay for not doing it, but I’d prefer to do Sentry Duty and Palomar…. as well as the ones I’ve already done – Admiral Barry and Aaim to Prosper!!!
It’s what infuriates me about these big handicaps, I end up fancying half the field and still miss the winner.
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