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TOTE JACKPOT rollover

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  • #353
    horsestatshorsestats
    Member
    • Total Posts 52

    Delighted to see that today’s rollover has been sent to Sedgefield and not another impossible all-weather meeting.

    Has anybody got any useful systems to try and set about winning this (apart from monster luck) and upstage no doubt the numerous professional syndicates which will be wading in today.

    I don’t do the jackpot normally but did win it several years ago like this after it had rolled on after the Cheltenham Festival. I might throw a few quid at it – lets see some sytems guys and gals !

    #29521
    DannyDanny
    Member
    • Total Posts 790

    Race 1 – Wise Owl (Mccoy rides david pipe trains)<br>Race 2 – Le Rouge Fatal (top weight won last time out)<br>Race 3 – Akilak (useful hurdler now chasing)<br>Race 4 – Top Cloud (favourite)<br>Race 5 – Silver Chancellor (good weight unfancied)<br>Race 6 – Nile Moon (Tom Greenalls A class amateur rider)

    thats my system to winning the jackpot

    #29522
    Jim JTSJim JTS
    Member
    • Total Posts 841

    I’d rather attempt Southwell than Sedgefield’s crap :(

    Although I won’t be backing the jackpot here’s my attempt, I’d rather try a straight line with first mentioned if I was playing.

    <br>1.50 Wise Owl<br>2.20 Wolds Way / Lockstockandbarrel / Le Rouge Fatal<br>2.50 King Of Confusion / Akilak / Euro American<br>3.20 Crackleando / Top Cloud<br>3.50 Nevada Red / It’s Definite <br>4.20 Kyper Disco / Preston Brook

    ps. I’ll be happy with 3 winners at the meeting…:)

    #29523
    non vintagenon vintage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1268

    I had a go yesterday with a 3x2x1x2x1x1 perm (12 bets) which I did each-way (i.e. the placepot as well) and actually managed to get 4 winners including the 50/1 shot.

    I went down in the third leg when Nikki Bea failed to hold on, and then (thankfully in a silly way) also in the last when King Of Knights could only dead-heat for second. I did get 50p of the placepot, which was a decent enough return, but sadly I never backed Hatherden by itself.

    As for today at Sedgefield, I have a slightly bigger perm (24 bets, 3x1x1x4x1x2) again done each-way. I would expect it to be won today, but there are enough big fields for it to be a big payout and/or rollover again.

    R1(1:50) – I don’t fancy Wise Owl and think it will be a very popular selection so have left it out of the first race. John Forbes (well supported this morning) has bits of decent form and will need to win if he is going to have any chance of making the cut in either of the Cheltenham handicaps he is entered up for. The Easterbys often have a horse run well in this particular race, so the unexposed Bernix is also of interest, whilst the Ford yard has been going so well that the once raced Last Pioneer is an unlikely-but-possible looking longshot.

    R2(2:20) – This is a nasty little race with nothing solid either in terms of form or early betting. I would have expected the Haslam horse to be shorter with McCoy up if it was any good, so Royal Melbourne is the most likely winner for me and the gently drifting price is not overly concerning given that this is a 7yo who ‘only’ finished 5th last time and hails from a smaller, lower-profile stable.

    R3(2:50) – Akilak looks to have issues at present, whilst King Of Confusion doesn’t seem like a definite stayer on this ground even if treatment on his wind has worked. Euro American fell last time which is a slight concern, but otherwise looks to have outstanding claims here.

    R4(3:20) – Over this trip on this ground, a low weight should be a massive advantage (although an in-form General Duroc did hump a hefty weight to victory in this last year), so I’ve concentrated on the horses towards the foot of the handicap. Crackleando has nothing to hide from anyone but ought to be thereabouts if his inexperienced jockey can put in an adequate ride. At bigger prices and for different reasons, Our Joycey, Panama At Once and Westmorland all make some appeal and have less exposed profiles.

    R5(3:50) – Once again, a lower weight should be hugely beneficial. With the McCain yard flying (as it does in bursts throughout the year), Nevada Red has to be of interest, but my feeling is that firstly everyone else has realised this and secondly that he really doesn’t look to finish off his races very strongly and this trip will be plenty far enough. Go Nomadic is almost always thereabouts around here (five places from seven runs), has a featherweight and both acts on the ground and stays the trip. On the flipside, he doesn’t win that often and is now 13, but I haven’t seen too many tips for him flying around.

    R6(4:20) – The key question for me here is whether the Brocklesby Park heat, in which Preston Brook triumphed and Vital Spark showed plenty of promise, was any good. Early money on the exchanges suggests it probably wasn’t, so although it will no doubt be irrelevant by the time we get this far, the impressive Waking Ned who won on a long journey south to Higham and is proven on heavy going does look to have a very good chance. As an alternative, Plutocrat has a course win, soft-ground form, and the ability to go well when fresh.

    <br>Good luck if you are playing. Like Jim, I’d be happy to get 3-4 winners and even happier to grab a bit of the placepot, particularly if Wise Owl blows out completely…

    ;)

    (Edited by non vintage at 1:45 pm on Feb. 20, 2007)

    #29524
    apracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3087

    <br>Total pool £1,046,450 – that’s £614k approx added to the rollover.

    Total payout will be £742979 after deductions.

    The defeat of the banker Wise Owl in the first reduced the pool to just over £161k.

    AP

    #29525
    non vintagenon vintage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1268

    AP and others,

    Doesn’t it make you wonder why the Tote don’t guarantee the Jackpot on a regular basis at a higher level than the paltry £7,100 they offer at present?

    Given that they don’t receive their deduction until the pot is won or part won, wouldn’t it be in their interest to guarantee say a £150,000 pool and desist from trying to find the most difficult card for it to apply to?

    #29526
    apracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3087

    <br>NV,

    I think your proposal would be regarded by the Tote, with some justification, as financial suicide.

    There’ll be no carry forward for tomorrow as every horse is covered in the final leg.

    AP

    #29527
    non vintagenon vintage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1268

    Only if they pitched their guaranteed level above the volume of money which would be bet into the pool.

    If the pool is sufficiently large each day, it will attract a large amount of stake. We have seen this happen when there are considerable rollovers. The question would be around what the sustainable level of bets might be on a daily basis.

    If the Tote marketed itself at international markets (where it is or could be both lawful and attractive), and built up a reputation for large pools, they would presumably be a more profitable organisation. Presumably, they also wouldn’t waste money servicing tiny Jackpot pools which aren’t won and thus don’t yield any revenue…

    #29528
    apracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3087

    <br>NV,

    It’s the carryover that makes the bet atractive on a day like today, not just the size of the pool.

    Today, there was £614k staked playing for a payout of £743k – so each £1 bet was worth approx £1.20p even before the first race was run, instead of 71p which is the case with no carryover.

    I played today, but I wouldn’t play ever day, no matter how big the guaranteed pool, because the takeout is too large.

    AP

    #29529
    non vintagenon vintage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1268

    That’s a fair point AP, and I can see that there is sound thinking behind ensuring the card chosen is challenging from a betting perspective.

    That said, it would still make sense if the Tote were to put something in place to speed up the initial stages of pool growth.

    At the moment, they generally rely on several days of unfortunate (stupid?) punters betting on ridiculously unlikely outcomes for the faint possibility of a relatively feeble return.

    #29530
    Adrian
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1041

    I agree with NV – the tote needs to start the ball rolling earlier to create the bigger jackpots.

    If you look at Tabcorp in Australia they are an example of how forward thinking totes around the world are working.

    I’ve already mentioned their Flexi Betting staking plan on another thread.  This year they have two key initiatives one of which is Seeding Jackpots – just what NV is referring to.

    The other idea is for Power Pays where they give 10 per cent bonuses on win bets on certain days.  They have already tried this in Victoria and on 5 days in January there was a 18.2 per cent increase on the previous year (although admittedly there have been increases across the board on the Tab).

    In South Africa you have their Tote people saying they are thinking of slashing take out rates so they can compete with the on line bookmakers and exchanges.

    I await similar news from our Tote – maybe after the privatisation.

    <br>

    #29531
    jonny1ph
    Member
    • Total Posts 44

    I agree with the comment on the tote not being very forward thinking. <br>I think the big rollovers when there is value are often poorly advertised. <br>I look at the pool bets after the big midweek meeting where the Trifecta race on Saturday often has a big rollover. <br>

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