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In 50 years time they will still be talking and posting about Toronado on this very forum. Well at least I will be……..
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
On Wednesday Toronado looked a different horse to the one who turned out for the 2000 Guineas in May he has matured, put on weight and is getting better with each race he runs.
Dawn Approach on the other hand turned out for the Guineas looking a picture of health and fitness as he has done all season. Putting a bad run in the Derby behind him he came back triumphant at Royal Ascot in the St James’s Palace and ran the race of his life.
Wednesday at Goodwood his old rival finally got the better of him, it was a good clean race, if anything Dawn Approach went too soon and was fighting off Declaration War, having done that I think he thought he had done enough and continued on one paced. Toronado came storming down the outside and the rest is history. No excuses, the best horse won on the day. I was sad to see Dawn Approach beaten but pleased for Toronado because he ran such a great race.
Not sure when they will meet up again but hope it is sometime soon.Well done to Nathan who has had so much confidence in Toronado since the 2000 Guineas which has now paid off.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Dawn Approach 2
Toronado 1
Dawn Approach harder campaign come back straight away from a HARD Derby run..
i cant take it DA is at his peak his dad and mother didn’t race beyond 3yo it going to be interesting if DA stays in training now and as a 4yo i very much doubt it tho
JMO
Let’s say Toronado did not run yesterday JMO. Just rub the Hannon horse out of the picture…
Had Dawn Approach
won
the race, beating the Queen Anne winner and Eclipse second Declaration Of War by 2 1/2 lengths; with daylight (5 lengths) back to the "third" Trade Storm…
Declaration Of War was a shorter distance (only 2 lengths) behind Al Kazeem in the Eclipse… So Dawn Approach still put up a better performance yesterday than treble 2013 Group 1 winner Al Kazeem… And that is even without taking in to account distances are worth more in lbs at 1m than 1m2f. Declaration Of War would’ve also been an easier winner of the Queen Anne had he got through sooner.
A 2 1/2 length beating of DEC is surely at least as good (if not better) a performance than a 5 length win over Glory Awaits (2000 Guineas)? Indeed, isn’t a 2 1/2 length beating of DEC a better performance than beating Mars 3 lengths (St James’s Palace)?
Make no mistake, had Toronado not been in the Sussex – everyone would be talking about Dawn Approach’s
2 1/2 length "victory"
as his
best
performance yet.
Hopefully that answers Hammy’s question too.
Dawn Approach is consistent at 1m and with a great attitude. If they both go to the Breeders Cup it may well be he handles it better than Toronado. But measuring both horses at their BEST – Toronado is the better horse.
Value Is EverythingTimeform:
Wise Dan 134
Toronado 133
Dawn Approach 132
Farrh 132
Novellist 132Dawn Approach may be the more "consistent", but at their "best" Toronado is the "better" and as Nathan says still "improving". He settles well these days and so can show it. This was the best mile performance of 2013, possibly THE best 2013 performance FULL STOP. Had Toronado not been in the race you’d have expected Dawn Approach to beat Declaration Of War by around 2 1/2 lengths, exactly what happened. The right distances back to 4th, 5th etc too.
Therefore (imo) there is no reason why Toronado should not be rated higher than Dawn Approach. I myself would have T 2 lbs in front of DA.but at their "best" Toronado
I always wondered that actually meant though. Pick entirely different racing conditions (within reason) and you might end up with a different result. Its the obvious flaw of the once off rating system which Im sure others have debated ad nauseam. Maybe they should hand out rating numbers based on every 3 runs. It might seem strange but there’s a certain logic in it.
Obviously SHL, when measuring which horse is "best" (as we are here) you compare each horse at their
best
. But in this case both DA and T are
fully effective
at a truly run mile on either a soft or firm surface – which makes it easier to compare.
When giving a
Master Rating
any organisation needs to produce a rating the horse is capable of given the horse’s
optimum
conditions. After that, for any race in future the punter can look through each individual run and consider what rating every runner is capable of given
prevailing
conditions.
If ratings were given "every 3 runs" they’d miss improving horses, so it would not be an accurate guide. One horse could be 2 stones better by then.
Value Is EverythingThe rivalry between Dawn Approach and Toronado is reminiscent of two other top class milers from 1981 – namely, To-Agori-Mou and King’s Lake.
There wasn’t much between the Guy Harwood and Vincent O’Brien trained colts, and there appears to be little that separates the current best milers. I suspect, just as in 1981, the race outcome will be decided on tactics and who has most luck on the day.
If I remember rightly, wasn’t the "outcome" of T-A-M Vs KL settled in the law courts H?
Value Is EverythingTrust me if I ever feel I need to ask your permission to post on a thread I’ll be sure to ask.
As usual you seem to be suffering from small goat syndrome.
You are free to post as much as you want. Alas, it likely won’t exclude the inevitably of a reply that points out clear faults.
Let me know when you are ready to commence a friendship and we can wine and dine ourselves into even more stupidity.
Probably best if you keep your inevitably arrogant and barbed comments to yourself, or post them towards someone who values your opinion. I don’t.
Dawn Approach 2
Toronado 1
Dawn Approach harder campaign come back straight away from a HARD Derby run..
i cant take it DA is at his peak his dad and mother didn’t race beyond 3yo it going to be interesting if DA stays in training now and as a 4yo i very much doubt it tho
JMO
Let’s say Toronado did not run yesterday JMO. Just rub the Hannon horse out of the picture…
Had Dawn Approach
won
the race, beating the Queen Anne winner and Eclipse second Declaration Of War by 2 1/2 lengths; with daylight (5 lengths) back to the "third" Trade Storm…
Declaration Of War was a shorter distance (only 2 lengths) behind Al Kazeem in the Eclipse… So Dawn Approach still put up a better performance yesterday than treble 2013 Group 1 winner Al Kazeem… And that is even without taking in to account distances are worth more in lbs at 1m than 1m2f. Declaration Of War would’ve also been an easier winner of the Queen Anne had he got through sooner.
A 2 1/2 length beating of DEC is surely at least as good (if not better) a performance than a 5 length win over Glory Awaits (2000 Guineas)? Indeed, isn’t a 2 1/2 length beating of DEC a better performance than beating Mars 3 lengths (St James’s Palace)?
Make no mistake, had Toronado not been in the Sussex – everyone would be talking about Dawn Approach’s
2 1/2 length "victory"
as his
best
performance yet.
Hopefully that answers Hammy’s question too.
Dawn Approach is consistent at 1m and with a great attitude. If they both go to the Breeders Cup it may well be he handles it better than Toronado. But measuring both horses at their BEST – Toronado is the better horse.
Not really Ginge, as I said, the complexities of ratings etc are beyond my limited intelligence. All I know is that one horse has beaten the other twice and picked up a classic. On that evidence alone I have the horse as the better of the two.
Regarding the Sussex stakes: I think Tryptych has summed it up perfectly with this line:
"…if anything Dawn Approach went too soon and was fighting off Declaration War, having done that I think he thought he had done enough and continued on one paced."
That’s pretty much my interpretation of what I saw too. I thought Manning demonstrated a bit of panic in both of DA’s last two races. In the Sussex I think he made too much use of his horse early on. Watching the final furlong Dawn Approach looked to be half asleep when Toronado passed him I thought Hughes won the race, not Toronado. They are clearly two brilliant horses and there isn’t a great deal between them, but I’ll confidently back DA to reverse that result should they meet again.
Not really Ginge, as I said, the complexities of ratings etc are beyond my limited intelligence. All I know is that one horse has beaten the other twice and
picked up a classic
. On that evidence alone I have the horse as the better of the two.
Hammy,
In a "Classic" horse A beats… horse B by 1 length, with the over all distance back to horse C being 2 lengths, horse D 3 lengths and horse E 4 lengths…Horse A then goes on to run in a Group 1 and beat horse E by only 1/2 a length. Yet horse A beats horses B, C and D by exactly the same distances as the "Classic"…
And then they meet again in another Group 1 and this time horse E beats horse A by 2 lengths. With horse A ONCE AGAIN beating all the other horses by exactly the same distances as the "Classic"…
The form shown by horse A is exactly the same in all 3 races, horse A beats horse E in 2 of the 3 races. But horse E has shown improvement to first finish 1/2 a length behind horse A, and then show better form by beating him in the last race.
Rating horses is done by rating one horse against the next. It does not matter if it is a "Classic" or Group 1 or whatever.
Value Is EverythingYou have to put a line through Toronado’s guineas performance. It came to light about his problem after, some believed it to be excuses and that Toronado was the subject of hyperbole from Hannon and Hughes. I’m not saying Toronado would have won the guineas but he would of been involved in another tight finish since that race Toronado has grown bigger and stronger, is lightly raced compared to Dawn Approach and his breeding would suggest he will keep improving at 4. Bolger says Dawn Approach is still improving so we could be in for another battle or two in the near future.
The winner = racing.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
If I remember rightly, wasn’t the "outcome" of T-A-M Vs KL settled in the law courts H?
You know, Ginge, now that you mention it, and as memory serves, I think you’re right. It’s all coming back to me.
Those two had some fair old tussles and the Irish 2,000 Guineas is a case in point. I think a bit of needle crept in between Greville Starkey and Pat Eddery.
Ah, those were the days. The good old racing public lapped it up.
Just for the record : I backed To-Agori-Mou to win the Craven ( he was 2nd ) and then the 2,000 Guineas ( which he won ) and followed him from thereon in.
Just as I was in the Brigadier camp v Mill Reef, so too was I in the To-Agori-Mou camp v King’s Lake.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
So many imponderables to deal with. Dawn Approach was prepared for the Guineas. Suddenly he had to change plans and prepare for the Derby over a mile and a half. Terrible mistake. Then reverse gear and prepare for another mile race. No break; just back to a mile training having prepared him for a mile and a half. I bet the horse is confused. I am. So he goes ahead and wins the mile race. Now does he get a break? No way. So he runs into an ambush and gets mugged. Anyone surprised?
Although not 100% identical, I’m reminded of the Makfi / Canford Cliffs era. Makfi was obviously the best horse on 2000GS day, and was a proper G1 performer in what was a good year for 3yo milers. However, for my money CC improved to be several pounds his superior as the season played out.
Although in the latest generation, all things being equal and identical odds given I think I’d still side with DA if I had to choose. Roll on round 4 !
Dawn Approach
wasn’t a 100% right yesterday,he ran a shade flat but so did
Toronado
in the 2000gns,both horses ran to their best in the St James Palace Stakes and a Sh hd was all that seperated them.Should both horses contest a race over a 11/4m then I’d favour ‘Toronado’,as he seems to have a stronger Stamina profile but back over a mile its always going to be down to who gets the breaks.’Toronado’ deserved his moment in the sun as he’s a bloody good horse and a genuine Group 1 performer and like Nath says will make a formidable 4yo.Anyone who suggests he’s a 2lb better horse than the Bolger horse is talking through their A*se!
Dawn Approach
wasn’t a 100% right yesterday,he ran a shade flat but so did
Toronado
in the 2000gns,both horses ran to their best in the St James Palace Stakes and a Sh hd was all that seperated them.Should both horses contest a race over a 11/4m then I’d favour ‘Toronado’,as he seems to have a stronger Stamina profile but back over a mile its always going to be down to who gets the breaks.’Toronado’ deserved his moment in the sun as he’s a bloody good horse and a genuine Group 1 performer and like Nath says will make a formidable 4yo.Anyone who suggests he’s a 2lb better horse than the Bolger horse is talking through their A*se!
If you think Dawn Approach’s St James run is better Gord, then you must believe a 3 lengths beating of Mars (Short Head + 2 3/4) is "better form" than a 2 1/2 length beating of Declaration Of War?
That’s some statement.
Toronado won by 1/2 a length on Wednesday. 1/2 a length is worth around 1.5 lbs at a mile and Toronado won without Hughesie going for absolutely everything, so I’ve added just 1/2 lb more for ease of victory. Seems reasonable to me.
Value Is EverythingNot really Ginge, as I said, the complexities of ratings etc are beyond my limited intelligence. All I know is that one horse has beaten the other twice and
picked up a classic
. On that evidence alone I have the horse as the better of the two.
Hammy,
In a "Classic" horse A beats… horse B by 1 length, with the over all distance back to horse C being 2 lengths, horse D 3 lengths and horse E 4 lengths…Horse A then goes on to run in a Group 1 and beat horse E by only 1/2 a length. Yet horse A beats horses B, C and D by exactly the same distances as the "Classic"…
And then they meet again in another Group 1 and this time horse E beats horse A by 2 lengths. With horse A ONCE AGAIN beating all the other horses by exactly the same distances as the "Classic"…
The form shown by horse A is exactly the same in all 3 races, horse A beats horse E in 2 of the 3 races. But horse E has shown improvement to first finish 1/2 a length behind horse A, and then show better form by beating him in the last race.
Rating horses is done by rating one horse against the next. It does not matter if it is a "Classic" or Group 1 or whatever.
None of my posts on this thread have intended to dispute your ratings assessment Ginge. I’m sure you have the sums and conclusions correct. I wouldn’t doubt your logic for a minute.
My point was that ratings generally seem to me a questionable way of assessing horses. particularly, as in this instance, if they lead the racing follower to conclude that a horse that has won two out of three races against another horse of the same age (One being in one of the five most prestigious races in the English racing calendar.) is the inferior of the two race horses.
And of course I don’t agree with the conclusion your ratings lead you to arrive at. IMO, at least at this point, Dawn Approach is the better horse, and the more successful.
In all honesty I have never been convinced by the idea that you can quantify horse racing performances with hard and fast figures. There are just too many variables to consider. Horses are not mechanical after all. They are flesh and blood and heir to a thousand natural shocks etc. I don’t see how you can reliably apply mathematics to their evaluation. If the ratings system was in anyway a reliable way of evaluating performance then people like yourself would pretty soon all be wealthy men.
…are you a wealthy man Ginge?
Dawn Approach
wasn’t a 100% right yesterday,he ran a shade flat but so did
Toronado
in the 2000gns,both horses ran to their best in the St James Palace Stakes and a Sh hd was all that seperated them.Should both horses contest a race over a 11/4m then I’d favour ‘Toronado’,as he seems to have a stronger Stamina profile but back over a mile its always going to be down to who gets the breaks.’Toronado’ deserved his moment in the sun as he’s a bloody good horse and a genuine Group 1 performer and like Nath says will make a formidable 4yo.Anyone who suggests he’s a 2lb better horse than the Bolger horse is talking through their A*se!
If you think Dawn Approach’s St James run is better Gord, then you must believe a 3 lengths beating of Mars (Short Head + 2 3/4) is "better form" than a 2 1/2 length beating of Declaration Of War?
That’s some statement.
No big Statement at all Ginge,I’m of the opinion the St James Palace stakes was a better race,it was a battle Royal from the 2 pole and both horses were flat out fighting to the line,it went in ‘Dawn Approaches’ favour that day but it could have gone either way.The Clock tells you it was a solid gallop from start to finish and the relative distances of beaten horses confirm just how good the first two are.In contrast the Sussex stakes never developed into a battle,’Dawn approach’ committed at the furlong pole and stretched out,he maintained a good solid gallop to the line but Richard rode the perfect waiting race and pounced on him on the line,there was never a protracted battle,it was basically a Class ride from Hughesey.The clock again confirms it was a frenetic pace and the beaten horses support this.However collateral form through both ‘Mars’ and ‘Declaration of War’ suggest there’s not a pound between these pair either and to judge both on their 11/4m running in the Eclipse tells much the same story,’Mars’is a very difficult horse to assess as he’s run over all sorts of distances and had some bad luck in running but he’ll get a Champion Stakes somewhere.Thats a bigger statement Ginge!
And of course I don’t agree with the conclusion your ratings lead you to arrive at. IMO, at least at this point, Dawn Approach is the better horse, and the more successful.
In all honesty I have never been convinced by the idea that you can quantify horse racing performances with hard and fast figures. There are just too many variables to consider. Horses are not mechanical after all. They are flesh and blood and heir to a thousand natural shocks etc. I don’t see how you can reliably apply mathematics to their evaluation. If the ratings system was in anyway a reliable way of evaluating performance then people like yourself would pretty soon all be wealthy men.
…are you a wealthy man Ginge?
Good post Hammy,Ginge would be the first to admit he’s pretty clueless about assessing horses,he confides in Timeform and then tweaks the figures to try and make us think he’s come out with a rating himself,his betting formula is pretty unique and todays result where he freely admits he didn’t have a clue what horse from his half a dozen bets in the race won!
but it works so you cant slate him for making a profit from this notoriously difficult sport,however he bets a £1 a point so he’s not one for playing with the big boys!
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