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Thrown an early dart in this.
Ballyalton 16-1 ew
He’s 11 but the ability seems to be still there and will get in off 138.
Not convinced of the wisdom of The National in Mid-April, never mind this race, but my love/hate affair with it goes on, and I’ve had an early go.
Despite my concerns, it’s still a race I throw a few quid at, and I’ve went mob handed with four selections at the moment for half my stake, in the hope I can lay off some nearer the time, in order to add a couple after final decs.
Just the seventy nine to chew over, and I’ll try and keep it down, as the weights aren’t framed yet.
Art Mauresque – A horse who’s always flattered to deceive a little, but his second behind Waiting Patiently at Kempton, followed by a decent run next time there, behind Master Dee, at least give him place potential here. Certainly not my idea of the winner, but could see him bang there. 20’s
Ballyalton – A horse I’ve got so much time for, and but for injury, he would surely have proved to be much better than what he’s actually achieved. Seems a long time ago that he was runner up behind Faugheen in The Neptune, but he at least got his big win in The Close Brothers two years back. I was with him that day, and bar his run over an unsuitable trip at Kempton in January, I’ve been with him ever since. He’s just a very decent animal, and he gave me a proper run for my money on three occasions at Cheltenham this term, doing me proud in The Brown Advisory Plate. Crucially, the ground was against him on all those occasions, and with the prospect of spring ground here, and a mark that doesn’t even come close to doing him justice, then 16’s just has to be taken. A serious player here. 16’s
Bigbadjohn – Since winning a very weak Reynoldstown, this horse went backwards pretty quickly, and seemed to be another casualty of the drastic downturn in fortunes at the Rebecca Curtis yard. A stable switch to NTD, had the desired affect, and he won on his stable debut. He’s still on a nice enough mark, and he was kept away from The Kim Muir, which at the time I thought was a strange decision. Spared a hard race there, and he’s got to be given respect, even with the chance that this just might be on the sharp side. I’d love to see him swerve this, as I think he’s a horse worth a second look in The Scottish National. 25’s
Blazer – I was a big fan of this horse over timber, but he’s not been seen since Punchestown, and we’ve not had a proper chance to see how he progresses over fences. He showed plenty of promise though when we did though, and assuming his layoff hasn’t been caused by a serious setback, then he looks, considering connections, one to be wary of. The Ryanair Gold Cup is also on the horizon for him, not to mention an entry at Clonmel this week, so maybe not one to dive in on just now, however I’ll be watching the market closely, as he’s very tempting price. 33’s
Bouvreuil – Things haven’t really went his way this year, and he’s not had the chance to buil on his excellent third to Road To Respect at The Festival last year. He ran well enough in my opinion in this last year, and a few pounds lower this time around, should surely see him in the shake up as they head for home. Not in the best of form, but hard to rule out with any confidence, especially if no ill-effects from being brought down in The Grand Annual. 16’s
Captain Redbeard – Would give him a real chance here, but the yard will surely let him take his chance in the big one. 33’s
Clarcam – He was my main bet in this last year, and as much as I try to forget, I had a good few quid on him. He didn’t look interested though, and was never sighted. I really didn’t want to see him in here again, as I still think his run in this last year was a “blip”. Already got a G2 to his name this term, and he’s got a potential run at Dundalk this week to blow the cobwebs away. If he gets a nice mark here, as much as it pains me, I’d give him a live chance to make amends, and I may have to make him a saver nearer the time. Or now even, he’s a big price for an Elliot/Giggs horse. 40’s
Devils Bride – Another Giggs candidate, and another I know very well. Kept a close eye on him last summer, where he had a busy campaign, as I’ve always thought him a spring horse. He did well, without getting his head in front, and his last run was here in The Old Roan, where he was pretty disappointing. Plenty of questions to answer, but he did have his moments last spring, and he’s no stranger to running after a long layoff. 40’s
Double Treasure – Interesting that this boy missed out on Cheltenham, and quite possible this is something of a long term plan for him. Started the season in tremendous form, and he can easily be forgiven his slightly disappointing showing in The BetVictor, as the ground was completely against him. Every chance he’ll get his ground here, and he is no 33-1 shot. 33’s
Eastlake – The sensible route to take with him is that he is on the downgrade, but if you go back and watch The Grand Annual, he travelled beautifully, and was not knocked about by the trainers son. A previous winner of this, and though getting on a bit, it wouldn’t be the first surprise he’s sprung. On that Grand Annual run I just have to have him on my side, at a very nice price. 40’s
Full Glass – What I don’t know about French Racing could be written on the back of a stamp. A very big stamp. I have no idea about this boy, but being a Munir/Souede horse, and having made the recent switch to Alan King, it’s worth giving him a second glance in the market. As much as this would be a huge ask for any horse making there debut on these shores, the owners are no stranger to success in this race 33’s
Gas Line Boy – Love this horse to bits, and he fair saved my bacon in The Grand Sefton. He really has got better with age, and was great to see him land that race, as a late fall cost him here in October, when he had the race sewn up. He’s never been the safest conveyance, but he’s certainly better than he was, and his run in The National last year was outstanding. He’s in The National field, but I just have the suspicion they’ll give this race serious consideration, and why not? 16’s
Gentleman Jon – From last years winning yard, and though he’s went off the boil this winter, he does have his moments, and not totally written off here. He’ll love anticipated better ground. 40’s
Go Conquer – As I’ve said ad nauseum this term, I really like this horse. His win at Ascot in October was ultra impressive, and for a horse that had more or less passed me by, I thought we had a horse who cut it in Graded Company. That hasn’t been the case really, though I still think he would have won The Sodexo Silver Cup, but for a juddering error. Not so good at Kempton last time either, and he’s been pulled from a fair amount of races too. I’ve bet him for The National, but he’s friendless for that on the exchanges at the moment, and despite The Rooneys having the favourite for this, I just wonder if the decision has been made to head here. Despite that National bet of mine, I do have stamina concerns for him, and this target does make a lot of sense. Had no luck in running in it last year, and deserves a change of fortune. Massive price if he does head here. 25’s
Henri Parry Morgan – How many chances do you give a horse. I’ve given him a few, but after getting stuck in the mud all winter, and looking on the downgrade, I just can’t bring myself to write him off. He ran well in The Scottish National last spring, and considering the trainers record in this, no surprise, to me anyway, if he can reproduce that second to Native River here two years back. His jumping has never been the best, but he hasn’t half went down the weights too, and I give him a sporting chance here. 40’s
Imjoeking – Would surely have went close in this last year, falling late on when leading the field a merry dance. He had jumped superbly up until then, and I think the ground just did him here in The Grand Sefton. Even before the success of One For Arthur, I’ve always paid attention to Russells runners here, and that run in this last term, really is worth a look. He is just far too big. 33’s
Katachenko – Very much like Imjoeking, he was running a blinder in this last year, before the fences got in the way. This is surely his season target, and considering connections, I can see him getting a lot of interest in the market, as the race approaches. At 33’s, he does provide a real opportunity for a decent trade here. 33’s
Kilcrea Vale – Very promising as a Novice Chaser, and he ran very well in The JLT last year. He’s looked out of sorts this term, but considering the trainers record in this, no surprise to see a sudden return to form here, and I’d be confident he’s, at the very least, got a few lbs up his cuff. I thought he looked a real dark horse for The Plate, but he got balloted out, and I think he’s hard to rule out here. 25’s
Kylemore Lough – Very capable type, but he’d surely want the heavens to open, and there may be other alternatives at the meeting for him. Interesting if he does choose this route though. 20’s
Lord Windermere – Interesting that he’s in this, but he’ll surely look to repeat his big run in last years National. 50’s
Lovely Job – like the fav, nother Fergal O’Brien/Rooney horse. Clearly on the up, and from what I’ve seen of him, he’ll surely be better than 138 before too long. Kept fresh for something, so why not this. Proper dark horse this one. 25’s
Mall Dini – Massive fan of this horse, and just about over him getting pipped in The Kim Muir. I’d be a little surprised if he headed here, but utmost respect for him if he did. 16’s
Marracudja – Has to be respected from the Nicholls yard, although this would be miles away from what he’s used to. Nice enough winner in The Scottish Champion Chase at Musselburgh, but if he were mine, he’d be getting sent to Ayr, and I think that that just might be where we’ll see him. 25’s
Master Dee – Looks a worthy favourite to me at this stage. This horse is a model of consistency, he’s never far away. He built on his promising display over The Mildmay Fences in November, with a very likeable display at Kempton. Trainer has been in great form this year, and this horse doesn’t seem to have too many negatives going into this. More than capable of handling the rise in the weights, and should be more than capable of taking to this. As low as 9’s, that 12’s might not last too long. 12’s
Midnight Shot – He’s ran some smashing races since the switch to the larger obstacles, not least in The Plate at Cheltenham, where he shaped very well. I know him very well, and though I suspect that he’s high enough in the weights, that run last time offered some real encouragement, and he could really bowl then along here. Looks sure to head here too, as the owner loves a runner over the big fences. 50’s
O O Seven – More than high enough in the weights for his overall achievements, but he can at least attempt to better his fourth in this last year, off of 2lbs lower, and he’s got obvious claims for Nicky Henderson. May be significant that he was pulled from The National, and surely all systems go for this now. The blue is appearing on Oddschcecker for him too. 14’s
Pairofbrowneyes – Always liked this horse, and like so many others, a switch to WPM, had predictable results, and he won impressively in The Leinster National. Some feat that for a horse with stamina doubts. There’s surely more to come, and though I’ve bet him for The Irish National, I could hardly blame connections if they chose this route, as his mark would be fair, and he’d be tailor made for this. 20’s
Patricks Park – Like Pairofbrowneyes, he’s another to make a stable switch to Mullins, winning very impressively last time. Based on the manner of that win at Leapordstown last month, he’s more than entitled to take his chance here. I don’t know if he makes maximum appeal Ante-Post, as there could be something for him at Fairyhouse, but he’s one I’m wary of. Very wary of. 14’s
Pleasant Company – Yet another WPM entry, and a horse I’ve been banging the drum for, for a couple of years now. Risky Ante-Post with entries for both The Grand National, and the Irish Equivalent. Anyone who seen him in The National last year, will know how he took to the place, and with the suspicion that he is more of a spring horse, and with less of an emphasis on stamina here, then he could just be a surprise runner. He’s certainly friendless for The National. Interesting. 25’s
Polidam – After three Mullins horses, we might as well have another. Having been reputedly bought with The National in mind, he’s been a little bit inconsistent to say the least, and his win at Navan doesn’t read so well now. As mentioned earlier though, Munir and Souede like a runner here, and he could just be slightly ahead of his mark. There has to be a chance this is his “sighter” for the big one next year. Must improve, but not out of the question. 20’s
Portrait King – As much as I’m a huge fan, even I didn’t foresee him making the frame in this last year. One of the best runs of his career, and not the first time he’s performed well round here. The trip was a revelation, and though he’s getting on now, he ran well in The Eider, and I don’t see any reason why can’t do himself justice again. I’d love to see a big run one last time from him. 66’s
Rathlin Rose – Best known for his exploits with Capt Guy Disney, he’s decent enough in his own right, and he showed this with a tidy win in The Veterans Chase at Ascot yesterday. He wasn’t great in The Grand Sefton, but that was on heavy, and he seems like another who’ll prefer some spring ground. Hard to rule out, bearing in mind his current form, but life will be tougher after his Ascot win. Still, just a little surprised that his price is holding. 33’s
Sametegal – Runs well here, but it’s still the same old story as at other venues, he sometimes appears to find little at the business end. That’s not to say he’s out of this, that’s not the case by any means, and another who’s surely had this as the seasons goal. He doesn’t have many miles on the clock, and he’s kept some nice company in the past, and will come here below his last winning mark. He has to be given a chance, and I thought he’d be near the head of the market. 20’s
Shanahans Turn – It’s approaching three years since his big day in the sun, when he absolutely routed them in The Galway Plate. Not much has went right since though, and he’ll come here having been little since that day at Galway. Being a “Potts” horse, he made the switch to Colin Tizzard, and he ran his best race for a while at Cheltenham. Didn’t go unnoticed, he’s had a wind op, he’ll relish conditions here, and most importantly, he’s plummeted down the weights. A very interesting outsider. 40’s
Shantou Flyer – Ran as well as could be expected in The National last year, where he went, in my opinion, as one of the worst handicapped horses in training. To be be fair to him, I might just have been a bit harsh, as he’s acquitted himself well off that mark in some handicaps this term, not least in The Ultima, but he’s so much better round Cheltenham when the mud is flying, and with an entry in the big one, I’d be very surprised to see him here. One of the few who seem underpriced. 16’s
Sizing Granite – Another Potts/Tizzard runner, who after a quiet start to the season, proved his wellbeing over hurdles, albeit off of a lenient mark. The ability is certainly there, as could be seen at Punchestown last term, and although he’s high enough in the weights, and with other options in the coming weeks, he’s very hard to be too negative about. 33’s
Sizing Tennessee – Third of the Potts/Tizzard contenders. He’s not getting any younger, can’t believe he’s a ten year old, but he seems to be getting better as he gets more experienced over fences. With more time on his side, I think we would have seen in him Graded Company, and that promise was confirmed in The National Hunt Chase. If he was mine, he’d be given more time to get over that, but I can see him running at this meeting, as they’d want to take advantage of what is a very lenient looking mark. I’ve a hunch that they might target another race at the meeting with him, and longer term, I could see him being a realistic contender for The Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury, certainly off of his current mark. Nice horse. 18’s
Soneofpresenting – Another Rooney horse, in the hands of Kim Bailey, and another who’s been kept under wraps this winter. He had a fine time of it at the start of the season, and I had “Nationals” in mind for him, but his new mark seemed to halt that progress at Cheltenham. Still, he remains one with potential, and though I’m not convinced he’ll run here, with the owners having other options, he’s a horse who I’ll consider wherever he goes in the spring. Certainly one who looks perfect for Ayr. 50’s
Theatre Territory – Given his record over these fences, it always seems sensible to give maximum respect to any Waley-Cohen runner, and she is no exception. Straight into the notebook for this after her run at Cheltenham in January, and she didn’t do too much wrong at Kempton next time. Swerving Cheltenham seems like a wise move with her, and I’d be fairly certain there’s lots more to come from her, and she has to be on any shortlist. The 14’s was too big for me, and I’ve taken a chance. 14’s
Thunder and Roses – On the face of it, he wouldn’t have ideal conditions here, but for a horse I always give a good word to, I’m not convinced he’ll be too much out of his depth. Yes, his season has been uneventful, but I just can’t get away from how he lobbed round here in The National, before being brought down, and I could see him surprising a few people. Very risky Ante-Post, with The Irish National on the horizon, and a slim chance of making the line up in the big one here. 66’s
Top Gamble – Seems as good as ever, as seen in The Grand Annual, and although he doesn’t win that often, for a horse who’s kept good company in the past, his mark of 149 seems very fair. Trip shouldn’t be an issue, I don’t think he has any ground concerns. My main concern would be his win ratio. 25’s.
Ultragold – Last years winner, who’ll surely come alive on the better ground. His season has been something of a disappointment, but considering the testing conditions, he ran with credit here in The Grand Sefton. He’s obviously not been in great form, that race aside, but his win here last term was also out of the blue, and he has to be given respect, being only 5lbs higher. 25’s
Village Vic – One of my favourite horses of recent seasons, and with good reason, he was the model of consistency. His form figures recently are uninspiring though, but he did look back to something like himself at Cheltenham. Yes, it’s over two years since he got his head in front, but with a hint of his old spark last time, and having been given a proper chance by the handicapper, he should give a good account here. 40’s
Westerner Point – A decent run over timber behind Folsom Blue put him bang in my sights for The Becher, where he ran very well, before the trip seemed to find him out. I could see some money for him, as although he’s ran predominately on softer going, he has won on better ground, and looks just the type to go well here. Trip looks ideal, and he’s a fair old price. 66’s
Western Miller – Enjoyed a fine time of it at the start of the season, and looked a horse to bear in mind for this type of heat. Far from disgraced behind Yanworth and Willoughby Court at Newbury, and considering the ground was against him, he ran with credit in The Close Bros at Cheltenham. I really do think this is the race for him, and he should go well. One of the best 100-1 shots I’ve seen for a while, and I’ve had a long look at him, and not ruling out a bit of that myself. 100’s
That’s just over half of them covered, and more than conceivable that the winner hasn’t even been given a shout. It’s a particularly strong looking entry this year.
As mentioned, I’ve went with four of them at this stage, with Imjoeking just a saver at the moment, as his price may just hold. Theatre Territory is a proper “notebook” horse for this, and I’ve already mentioned Ballyalton as a spring horse for me this year, and this race was always on the radar with him. Finally Eastlake. I just can’t get away from that run in The Grand Annual, and I’ve had a go. That 40’s is unreal.
Of the rest, then I really do think Western Miller has to be considered, along with Shanahans Turn. They’re the two who really appeal at the prices, while the likes of Clarcam, Go Conquer, Kilcrea Vale, Katachenko, and Thunder and Roses all catch the eye at the bigger prices too. Master Dee does look a strong favourite though.
Looking at the field, there’s some proper value on show, and I’ll almost certainly change tack if there’s bit more liquidity, as it looks a race to maybe run a small book on. I’ve been extremely careful with the Ante-Posts this season, and it’s worked out well. This just might be the race to have a try at it.
Ballyalton Win 16’s
Theatre Territory Win 14’s
Eastlake EW 40’sI’ve played on Theatre Territory e/w at the moment.
Like O O Seven but he’s short enough now after being tipped up antepost on ATR. Might have a go once I see final declarations.
Ballyalton is interesting if he turns up, definitely well handicapped and will appreciate the (hopefully!) better ground. Is he confirmed?
Ballyalton’s owner believe it or not fancied the National for the horse when the weights come out but was never going to get in off his mark.
Ive assumed that if they indeed wanted to go to Aintree they would end up here now.Theatre Territory and others around her aren’t certain to get in so I’d rather wait than risk no run.
I’m not 100% convinced I’ll be able to lay off here, with the initial selections, but hoping that Theatre Territory, or Ballyalton will be popular, and added one more.
Had to put my money where my mouth is….
Western Miller 100’s EW
Sametegal looks a bit overpriced here and if betting just now i’d Probably side with him though at 33-1, Junction Fourteen is also a nice price. It looks like a race to wait with right now. I’ll try my best to wait for the 5 day stage.
Sametegal was my original pick for this but he is a fragile horse and was declared a non runner on Saturday as ‘not sound’. So would like to see him there on the day before wanting to back.
I like Sametegal too and thought he jumped quite decently in the Grand Sefton. Think I remember Nicholls saying he would prefer better ground. Will wait to see what the weather does. If it is a bog I’ll hold off.
Old friends Ultragold and Portrait King are definite bets with the ground looking like it might be testing. I’m not too worried about the former on heavy. His Sefton run gives me faith he’d be just fine. O O Seven and Eastlake are also of interest.
It’s all getting very close and very exciting now!
Peter, I’d love to see one last big run from Portrait King, he’s become pretty dependable in these big races, rarely runs a bad one.
Another in the Sametegal camp for this.I backed him in the Grand Sefton, Bowen had him a long way back for his first sight of the big fences early on, but he jumped incredibly well and seemed to enjoy it. If you watch the race again, he was still last going down the back straight and made a slight mistake. Within two fences coming to the home turn, he had made up many many lengths to sit on the tail of the leaders going best of all. Coming to two out I thought he would win, but he was careered into by a horse on his inside, dropping him back from third to sixth jumping the last. He still ran on again bravely to take third. My assessment of the race that day, was that ridden closer to the pace, and granted a touch more luck, he’d have nigh on won.
That was second run back after two years off. A massive effort on heavy ground that does not suit him the best supposedly, but he ovb copes well with. I’d say this has been the plan since then.
20-1 is a big price, Ladbrokes are boosting it to 25-1.
That’s a tremendous piece of work, Bobby. Must have taken hours. Thank you.
I like your thinking on Go Conquer.
Thanks Joe, appreciated. Yeah, takes bloody hours, I was in the process of doing every horse, and was halfway through.
When the thread got started, I thought “**** it, I’ll just stick up the main ones”……and still forgot to copy across Highland Lodge & Gentleman Jon. Still, got a few hours of my life back lol
Yeah, just a feeling Go Conquer will head here now. I sometimes wonder if they’re 100% sure of what to do with him. Some price if he does go here mind.
I will give Polidam another chance here, and I will take the 20-1 on the nose.
As an outsider, I like Portrait king as well, and I’ll join Peter with him. 66-1 each way has to be taken, on his run last year
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