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Usual big entry for this, and it doesn’t look easy, which is hardly a shock…..
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/32/aintree/2019-04-05/724113
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/topham-handicap-chase/winner
Few catching the eye……
Ballyhill – He’s been pretty consistent this year, and in his last 2 appearances, chasing home Siruh Du Lac & Janika at Cheltenham, and not being totally disgraced at Ascot behind Clan Des Obeaux & Terrefort, is nothing to be ashamed of. He’s actually down in the weights since, and I just think he’s primed for a big run here off of 142. He just has to be on the shortlist, and the price looks mad 25’s
Bellow Mome – Willie Mullins horse, who has a relatively low profile after a long absence, but he’s came back in good heart. Very tidy reappearance in The Thyestes, and nothing wrong next time in The Leinster National, behind Pairofbrowneyes, who is a solid yardstick. He’ll have other options, but is interesting nonetheless 25’s
Cadmium – Another Mullins possible, and I could see the owners wanting a horse over the big fences. He’s had a rock solid prep for this in my eyes, keeping very good company all year, and his beating of the very decent Darasso last time, couldn’t read stronger. Live chance 25’s
Call It Magic – He keeps knocking on the door, and sooner or later he’s going to land a big one, I’m sure of that. His run in The Becher was excellent, and he just looks guaranteed, not only to go here, but also to be there at the business end at the very least. Solid claims 20’s
Commis D’Office – Two years off of the track, and he didn’t impress when finally seen at Sandown. Shoots of recovery in his last two runs though, and for a trainer who really targets this race, I think he’s a very interesting outsider. He’s got time on his side, and maybe one for next year, but I just can’t write him off here, for all he’ll be doing well just to get in 66’s
Doitforthevillage – Big fan of this horse, who’s got a great attitude. He’s already had a great season, and I thought he ran another decent race in The Brown Advisory Plate last week. He must have a realistic chance of making the frame here 33’s
Gold Present – He ran no sort of race at Ascot last time, and he’s probably high enough in the weights, but the yard love to lay one out for this, and although they look to have stronger claims, he’s the one that’s really jumping out at me, and I think this might just be the plan. The price is seriously tempting. Nicky Henderson loves this race, and this boy ticks a few boxes for me. Massive price as well 25’s
Janika – Favourite, and probably deservedly so. Nothing wrong at all from his last two runs, in fact they’re rock solid. One of those ones who’ll win, and will look so bloody obvious. Very hard to find a negative, though I suppose his mark is high enough 12’s
Mercian Prince – Burst into the picture for this with his impressive win at Kempton at the turn of the year. Not so good last time, but the handicapper has relented immediately, trimming him 3 lbs. Has to do more, but given a chance, and the Kempton run would put him bang there 33’s
Peregrine Run – The less rain the better for this lad, and he’s a smashing sort. Looks to have been kept fresh for a spring campaign, and he’s one of the most eyecatching entries. I’ve always rated him, and this race looks a perfect fit. Weather dependable though, and he would be risky at this stage. Still, that 20’s is tempting if you could find a long term forecast that suits 20’s
Polidam – He’s been a frsutrating import for Mullins, and he’ll certainly have other options in the coming weeks, but owners do like a try at this, and although he looks to have a quiet season, the way he was tanking at the end of The Thyestes, is worth a second look. He’ll bounce back one day, pretty sure of that, but just not 100% convinced that he’ll trap here. Big big price if he does 25’s
Shanahans Turn – I’m not at all interested in the season that he’s had, I’m more interested as to whether or not the seasons been geared around a repeat bid in this. I’d suspect that it has, and the mark of 126, is 8lbs lower than when runner up last year. It looks too low a mark to get in, but it would have been enough last year, and if he gets balloted out, money back. He’s 50’s, so it looks a no brainer, and that could be worth a small risk each way 50’s
Splash of Ginge – He’s had a disappointing season in the whole, but the ability was still there over timber at Newbury in the Autumn, and he’s just not a horse I want to be writing off quickly. He’s ran badly here before, but he’s certainly sprang a shock or two in the past, so not discounted 33’s
Theatre Territory – The one horse I wanted to see in here, and I wasn’t disappointed. I’m guilty of overrating her in the past, but I’m not buying one or two of her runs this season, and I reckon Greatrex will have had her season built around this race. Third in this last year off of 132, and coming here on 130, she surely makes the frame. She hasn’t won over fences yet, but that doesn’t concern me. I think she’s cast iron place material, and I reckon she could take it. I took the 25’s, but the current price is just as generous looking 20’s
Touch Kick – Any Nicholls/Hemmings horse is worth a second look in something like this, and I thought he shaped extremely well for a long way in The Kim Muir, eventually emptying late on. Progressive enough, and this trip looks perfect. Looks very fairly treated, and given plenty of respect 25’s
Ultragold – Hardly needs an introduction, going for a three timer in this. Reading between the lines, I reckon they favour this over The National, and coming here only 5lbs higher this time around, puts him bang there. Major player, and the price looks completely wrong 14’s
Valseur Lido – Widely considered to be a light of yesteryear, but his run in last years National suggests otherwise. Life in the old dog yet, and his run behind Rathvinden at Fairyhouse, certainly hinted at that. Never asked a question in The Plate at Cheltenham, and that was enough for me. He’s in The National, but I could see them giving this serious consideration, and after that run at Cheltenham, there’s just the suspicion that they started giving this serious consideration a fair while back 33’s
Voix D’eau – He’s got loads to find, but he had a fair time of it last season. He’s done nothing for the switch to Lucinda Russell, but as a consequence, he’s absolutely plummeted in the weights. She does like to target this, and she does do well at Aintree, not just over the National Fences either. Hard to be overly confident about, but wouldn’t surprise me if this was the long term plan 66’s
Warriors Tale – Another Nicholls/Hemmings contender, who had his finest hour round here, in this seasons Grand Sefton. He’s hardly been hammered for that, and has to come into the picture here. A very obvious contender 25’s
Theatre Territory for me then, but I could easily see a repeat of the 1, 2, 3 of last year. Ultragold looks a very generous price, while Shanahans Turn just has to be an early backup at the 50’s.
I really like Janika, but I’ll wait and see for the rest, but I’d be comfortable going 3, 4 handed in this. Shanahans Turn is more for the price, that can’t last, and happy with the 50’s, I might just take that, but for now my main hope is……
Theatre Territory 25’s Each Way
Another great write up VTC.
I’m hoping Ultragold comes here and not the national. I don’t think the horse is a definite stayer and obviously this race has been perfect the last two years. I’ll risk backing him now at the prices as if he is declared I imagine he’ll go off a lot shorter than the last two years.
I’m with you on Theatre Territory too, Ive backed the horse a couple times this year and been a bit disappointed with her runs but I do think this has been the plan and will be hoping she makes another appearance. Don’t think I’ll back her now but will see how the race is shaping up next week.
Again super write up VTC.
Gold Present & Activial the two that look interesting for me.
GP would like the ground to be nice & not sure Activial is going so will leave them for now.Thanks Krambust. Good luck if you side with TT. Just think she goes here unless she has any setbacks, this has to be the plan. Well worth the risk at the price.
Has to have a live chance of making the frame surely, and I agree with playing Ultragold early as well. He’s worth the risk as well.
Kev, we’re agreeing on a few just now, and good to see you fancying Gold Present, some price that.
Good luck.
I buckled, and added Shanahans Turn.
Questions to ask, and couldn’t be overly confident ahead of some of the others on the shortlist, but considering what Tizzard did with Ultragold last year, not inconceivable that he can do it with Shanahans Turn as well.
I just couldn’t leave that price alone.
Shanahans Turn 50’s Each Way
Nice preview again, VTC.
Javert for me at this stage but there are so many variables for several likely types.
I recall watching a horse earlier in the season and noting that he was jumping big, like he’d been schooled for these fences, and then smirked when the trainer mentioned Aintree; yep, I’ve forgotten the name.
Google, here I come
Like the chances of Flying Angel here. His festival run was much more the old him and he’s ridiculously well handicapped on old form. He’s gone well at Aintree before, winning the Manifesto in 2017 and then a solid enough run in this last year in tough conditions off 6lbs higher.
Big chance for me.
Thanks Mark.
Lol at the mystery horse, that could be a lot of googling. It wouldn’t be Duke Des Champs would it, I know you liked him early doors for Chepstow?
Warriors Tale is a big price at 25-1. I will definitely stay with him at that price each way.
I’m 80% sure Tizzard will send Ultragold here (National hating bugger!). It’s just a question of whether waiting for confirmation or taking the current price.
Forest Des Aigles had a good round in the Sefton before weakening. This is probably the very limit of his stamina, so I’m hoping better ground will help him see it out.
Theatre Territory off 2lbs lower than last year’s third effort obviously demands attention. That married with the best Aintree jockey in the Country makes him a must for consideration.
One I’m having second looks at is Double Shuffle. Pulled up in the National two years ago as a seven year old and has progressed into just shy of top class. Has returned to handicap company and showed he’s capable around his current mark and might well be classy enough to defy a big weight.
I will definitely side with Valtor here as I think he can be given a chance if you ignore the Cheltenham performance. He has a big weight though but if I can get 33-1 to extra places that would suit me.
I have already bet him just to win at 33-1
Warriors Tale still in The Grand National Line up. If he does run on Saturday, I doubt I would have another in this.
I’m still hopeful to see him here though.
Looks like Shanahans Turn will get balloted out here, so time to start looking for other backups.
Janika is my obvious one, but not wanting the fav in this
With Ultragold seemingly running Saturday, there’s some nice prices on offer, but I’m very reluctant to have another go as close to final decs.
The Irish challengers, Call It Magic (16’s), and Peregrine Run (20’s) both look way overpriced.
Another Irish challenger who could be a big price is Sub Lieutenant. You never know what you’re going to get. His mark of 155 looks harsh on a few of his runs, but on other runs, he looks very well treated. Who knows? I do think he’s better than a 33-1 shot, and with stablemate Valseur Lido seemingly National bound, then this guy is creeping up the shortlist, especially as he’s rarely seen in Handicap company.
Most of those mentioned on original shortlist, still there, but another starting to catch the eye, is Federici at 40’s. Maybe pushing it for win purposes, but he runs well round here, and he’d be very interesting with extra places available after final decs. Be even better if he was still 40’s.
O O Seven 20/1
Jumped and travelled incredibly well in the Ultima and just didn’t stay the last half mile coming home in his own time. Confirmed for the race and Hendo has a good record in it. Ground in his favour and a pound lower than when he was fourth in 2017.
If the blinkers work as well as they did at Cheltenham he’s got to have a great chance.I want to bet Polidam right now at 25-1, but I will wait and see if he gets declared for this. If he doesn’t get declared, I’ll be on Peregrine Run.
The other one I like is Call It Magic. I have taken a risk with him, and I have taken 16-1 on the nose.
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