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pricewise had 26 selections over royal ascot with one winner collection,only had one winner myself festivale,but i am not paid to give tips why do bookies continually shorten up his selections it is really anoying when you pick a horse he has tipped am i the only one who thinks this
Welcome to The Racing Forum, endevour.
The only motives bookmakers have for doing anything, is to maximise their profits, in my experience.
Colin
It’s easy to just bank the short-priced selections and Pricewise could’ve had a nice strikerate, but you’re after some selections and winners at value and attract an audience for their variety – considering that Yeats, Duke, Henry, Harada, Michita were all straight out winners, it would’ve been difficult.
There’s something just a little illogical about your post. If he gives so few winners( which he does) why worry if they shorten up your coinciding selections surely the percentage play is not to back them
what i am saying is on the odd time you pick the same horse as him it is frustrating toknow you will not get the price you want although i think over the years its better to wait for sp anyway,just put it down to getting old and grumpy it comes to us all
I think you have a valid point, admittedly not a particularly new one but valid nonetheless.
Without analysing his success rate, the constant shortening of his selections is annoying.
Considering that a fair percentage of people who are buying the RP have more than a minimal knowledge of racing I find it hard to believe that you would get as many ‘blind followers’ as you would of Templegate in the Sun, for example.
There is no doubt (in my mind at least) that these runners offer an excuse for shortening the horse without negating the book adjustment elsewhere.
I don’t mind bookies maximizing their profits as it’s a business at the end of the day and if they can get away with it why not. It’s surely up to the punters to show their displeasure through switching to another bookie or using the exchanges.
What I object to is the blatent disregard for the average punters intelligence.
Lee
This of course begs a couple of interesting question.
Given that, if your picking at longish prices your strike rate is going to be low, and your P&L may be a touch volatile, over what period should we assess the performance of Pricewise?
Should we just take the view that if you are making selections based on value and that value is likely to disappear quite quickly once your selections are in the public domain are there other ways we should be using Pricewise selections. It may be that by the time the majority of us get to know the Pricewise selections the prices still available may actually represent excessively poor value and, as a result, other possible selections may now represent value.
Do you lay the Pricewise, do you look for new value selections now that Pricewise has distorted the market, or probably both?
Chris
One way (which of course already happens) is readers getting extremely early copies of the paper and then backing to lay on the exchanges.
This of course has the domino effect of seeing the horses price shorten. Factor this with the general hordes reading the article, seeing the horses price come in and hearing Tanya confirm the news etc, etc.
It’s no different to speculation on the stock market causing swings in prices and has been around for years.
In general, people tend to panic and get caught up in the euphoria of anything where they feel they are missing out – just look at the petrol pump scare.
Lee
They shorten the price as they know they will (rightly or wrongly) see money for the horse.
Considering that a fair percentage of people who are buying the RP have more than a minimal knowledge of racing I find it hard to believe that you would get as many ‘blind followers’ as you would of Templegate in the Sun, for example.
Does anyone remember when Templegate put up Pukka in the 2004 derby at about 200-1 and he started about 8-1 or something stupid? I couldnt believe it, on all form the horse looked to have no chance.
When Pricewise done his 10 straight saturdays in 2005, it was actually a really easy time to pick horses IMO, I personally have never been able to pick horses like I was in summer 2005 and neither has pricewise. And coincidently on his eleventh saturday 3rd September I had my best day of that entire year. He put up proclamation @ 3-1 in the sprint cup and he started at 6/4. He also put up Glistening (who at the time was with Stoute and looked a good horse) who through the towel in about two furlongs out.
Probably the best thing Pricewise done in that time was to unearth Sgt Cecil at 25-1 and back him on every start of his Handicap treble. Also remember one saturday he put up three horses and two (one of whom was blue monday) won at 10-1. The bloke can tip horses, around a given style of picking, and sometimes his style of picking will work and sometimes not (I do find he ignores a hell of a lot of horses with chances). I do think the bookies over react to him though and due to his big support are just playing a numbers game so that they make more off his beaten horses than they lose on his winners (or so the plan would appear).
I did have to laugh at him at chester though when he started his column with "When you think of chester you think of one man- Barry Hills" he then went into some really long spiel about Michael Jarvis’s horse Royalist @ 4/1 or something, who was his only tip of the day. Royalist was turned over (at 9/4) by barry hill’s horse Huzzah at 15/2. Pricewise he should have just stopped at the first line. None of us are perfect though.
dont get me wrong i am old and wise enough to know what this game is like you are only as good as your last winner andover the years i have backed many winners and many losers as well but surely the job of pricewise is to pick winners we all know a two to one winner is better than an eight to one shot that does run to form it may have shown a few races back it,you will end up in the poorhouse backing them,but good luck to people who follow him
Does anyone remember when Templegate put up Pukka in the 2004 derby at about 200-1 and he started about 8-1 or something stupid? I couldnt believe it, on all form the horse looked to have no chance.
Even more so I remember about 15 years ago a friend who hadn’t been into the horses long was following the Nick Fox Templegate when he went on a similar run to that of Pricewise a couple of years back.
He had winner after winner and the only one I remember backing was One Man in a hurdle race that I can’t quite recall.
Anyhow, it came to the Saturday of the Tote gold trophy and my friend phoned me up early doors (I was young and didn’t appreciate it at that time of a weekend) excitedly claiming that Templegate had gone for a headline 33/1 shot and he was having his nads on it.
I laughed him off the phone.
The inevitable phone call came later that afternoon as King Credo did indeed appear to read the Sun.
Lee
That is always the way of it Wilsonl.
I knew a girl who did nothing but hit winners at cheltenham last year, and evrytime one of them one she was putting a bit of the winnings on Silverbirch at big prices for the national. Everytime she would be telling me to get on Silverbirch, I would say, "yeah, I think he’s got a good enough chance but Im sticking with my old mate Eurotrek"….d’oh.
Ive never been one for following the tipsters but one of the lads in work religiously backs "The Squirrel" from the Sun when doing saturday placepots. He only does generally small stakes but he got up an absolute fortune a few months back, but reckoned he went against the squirrel in one of the races, but he would have had all winners if he’d just stuck with the squirrel. Apparently, or so he reckons, the squirrel guessed the scoop 6 correctly three times last year.
On the subject of Tom Segal, I was somewhat nonplussed to see in his Weekender column this week the following: "Redford was incredibly impressive in the Britannia, despite finishing well beaten in the end. Jamie Spencer could not hold him and he was cantering with two to run. He must be a sprinter of the highest class."
I could have accepted: "Redford ran like a non-stayer at a mile, will be suited by a drop in trip and could take high rank at sprint distances" but "must be a sprinter of the highest class" (my emphasis) is ridiculous given that the horse was running off 93 at Ascot.
Is Pricewise really having an effect on the market ? I would suggest not.
There’s a few chancers (probably Carvellino Rampante and Glenn judging by 99.99% of their posts on here) who get the Pricewise selection and trade it early for arbing purposes, but generally they end up at the same price at post time anyway.
welcome .i agree with you 100% .its anoying to go through the formbook .think you found a good one .and find that its already been picked out .and price gone before you can place the bet.
There’s a few chancers (probably Carvellino Rampante and Glenn judging by 99.99% of their posts on here) who get the Pricewise selection and trade it early
Believe it or not. There are some on here that understand Pricewise to be the ‘system’ it is. I would suggest both CR, Glenn and others know the Pricewise selections before Segal does.
(Not me btw – I’ve never read or indeed seen it and wouldn’t know where to start)
If memory serves correct. Interestingly, despite a large amount of interest and posters signing up to give it a go. Last years TRF’s Pricewise Challenge lasted about three weeks. Perhaps Segel et al just make it look easy.
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