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If bookmakers can get money in the satchel at short odds so be it. To complain about them shortening the price when you are not obliged to have a bet does sound a bit petulant. The bookies’ value is that there are more losing punters than winning punters.
If bookmakers shouldn’t shorten his price when he wins races comfortably, when should they shorten them?
If bookmakers can get money in the satchel at short odds so be it. To complain about them shortening the price when you are not obliged to have a bet does sound a bit petulant. The bookies’ value is that there are more losing punters than winning punters.
Who’s complaining EF?
Of course bookies can price it up how they like. For every "poor" price there is a good price to be had with another horse.
Just saying I wouldn’t take that short a price on what we know about Sizing Europe.
Value Is EverythingIf bookmakers shouldn’t shorten his price when he wins races comfortably, when should they shorten them?
Got no problem with them shortening SE, just seems to me an over-reaction to shorten him up quite so much.
Some bookies halved his price 5/1 to 5/2.
100/30 is bad enough.However, his poor price means Big Zeb is a good one (imo).
Value Is EverythingZip
Wishfull Thinking was reported to be "thick in his wind" after the Paddy Power, but that’s common enough in horses returning from a break.
Clearly has a problem but, given the way he was ridden today, stable can’t have believed it was with his breathing.Thanks for educating me there, Reet.
What does "thick in the wind" mean then?
Sounds breathy
Zip
Just saying I wouldn’t take that short a price on what we know about Sizing Europe.
What do we know about Sizing Europe that would put people off backing him at a short price?
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Zip
It would seem to be ‘breathy’
:
He was always going a stride too quickly in the Paddy Power Chase, but trainer Philip Hobbs believes that run has made all the difference – he is a thick-winded horse who has already had two breathing operations and isn’t easy to get fit at home.
but I can’t believe he would go off like a lunatic if they’d thought it was still a problem?Ginger
SE travelled comfortably throughout and only did what he had to, so measuring against lengths others were beaten is a pretty pointless exercise.
For mine, he ran the race of his life lto, is possibly still improving, and Big Zeb looks the only possible threat to his title, with scant likelihood of anything superior emerging from the woodwork..I said SE didn’t "
need
" to improve Reet. He’s undoubtedly as good as ever. Agree, there’s still a possibility of improvement to come. But he didn’t show any better form there than he’s shown before (imo)- Therefore, I see no reason for bookmakers to slash his price by so much. All we learnt (for the future) is he’s equally effective on soft ground.
Agree, Big Zeb is the biggest threat, despite his age. Unless Finian’s Rainbow can progress.
So what you are predicting is Big Zeb will be the biggest danger
unless
Finian’s Rainbow is.
Geez your a talented guy
As it stands the biggest danger to Sizing Europe is not being 100% on the day. He is 3 from 3 in the UK over fences and thrives at Cheltenham, Admittedly he is unlikely to shorten up much between now and the beginning of March so having a bet now is pointless, as is trying to find value in something that might give him a race till nearer the day.
So what you are predicting is Big Zeb will be the biggest danger
unless
Finian’s Rainbow is.
Geez your a talented guy
Touche H.What I mean is: In my opinion Big Zeb is the strongest challenger to Sizing Europe for the Champion Chase. ie. If making a book for the race right now, I’d make Big Zeb second favourite with Finian’s Rainbow behind him. The latter’s position depends on how much improvement you believe is in him. Right now I doubt if it is enough to see him start second favourite, particularly with him failing to turn up yesterday. But it’s possible he could prove me wrong. Hence my ambiguous post.
Value Is EverythingJust saying I wouldn’t take that short a price on what we know about Sizing Europe.
What do we know about Sizing Europe that would put people off backing him at a short price?
Zark,
Take a look at last season’s form:
Sizing Europe and Big Zeb met on Jan 30th. Latter coming out on top by 7 lengths. However, they duelled from some way out which allowed the flattered Golden Silver to come from well back to beat them both. Not form to base opinions on and Sizing Europe had not shown his full potential anyway.
Sizing Europe won the Champion Chase, beating Big Zeb 5 lengths, with the consistent Captain Cee Bee another 4 lengths back in third. Golden Silver 1 1/2 lengths further behind in fourth. I felt Big Zeb was a bit disappointing on the day.
The first three then met again in another Grade 1 on May 3rd at Punchestown. Big Zeb beat Sizing Europe by 3/4 length. there was a general consensus that Sizing Europe was below form this day, but he beat Captain Cee Bee by exactly the same 9 lengths as in March. Golden Silver well below form, 26 lengths behind Captain Cee Bee.
If any punter wants to believe Sizing Europe was/is the best horse… It might be both Sizing Europe and Captain Cee Bee were both exactly the same amount below form on the day.
It’s true Big Zeb is going to be 11 years old (Sizing Europe is only a year younger) come March and might be on the downgrade by then. But the way he won on reappearance, although didn’t have to be at his best, suggests he hasn’t gone downwards quite yet. Big Zeb isn’t as consistent at Cheltenham as Sizing Europe, but has won the Champion himself two years ago. I would not say he has as good a chance of winning as Sizing Europe but does not need to be, to be a good bet.
Sorry Reet,
Sizing Europe is top price 100/30. To be worth a bet at that price a punter needs to believe he has better than a 23% chance of winning. Where as Big Zeb is 7/1, a punter needs to believe he has a better than 12.5% chance. There is the age thing, but does Sizing Europe really have almost double the chance of Big Zeb? A couple that on form are of very similar ability. And in my opinion Big Zeb has a better than 12.5% chance. At this stage I’d estimate Sizing Europe at around 20% and Big Zeb 16%.Value Is EverythingThere’s not a lot of strength in depth in the 2-mile division, and I feel that old age very rarely shows until the Spring Festivals.
Baracouda won his 1st 2 races of his final season, Hardy Eustace was victorious on his NH seasonal debuts as a 9, 10 and 11yo & did nothing the rest of the seasons, Well Chief was victorious against Master Minded in November a couple of years back & flopped on his other 4 starts, Beef or Salmon won Grade 1s in his 9/10yo season before flopping at Punchestown (and Cheltenham, obviously), etc.
And it makes sense too. They have the summer to freshen up and come back as fit horses in good form, but their fitness doesn’t extend to the entire season as it used to when they had younger legs and struggle to keep up with those with greater fitness levels.
Or on the other hand, perhaps the trainers recognise that they won’t be able to remain competitive for the entirety of the season and train them hard in the summer to make sure they’re at 100% for November and December, and perhaps even January & February. I very much doubt this is the case with Colm Murphy and Big Zeb, whereas I expect this is exactly the case with Paul Nicholls and Kauto Star.
I don’t think for a second that Sizing Europe ran below form at Punchestown, I just think that he needs more of a galloping track and is obviously very much at home at Cheltenham.
Indeed, I think Big Zeb is a horse who excels around Punchestown, although I’m not sure his record there conclusively proves that. A fall behind Mansony when cruising, the narrow defeat to Golden Silver in January, the defeat by a nose to Master Minded when BZ ploughed through the last and finishing 2nd to Sizing Europe over hurdles 2 starts before SE won the Greatwood Hurdle.
Did he have excuses at Cheltenham in March? Not that I can see. He came hard on the bridle turning into the straight, came off the bridle around the same moment as SE, and I believe only got as close as he did between the 2nd last and last because SE got in very close to the 2nd last. After the last Big Zeb just couldn’t keep up with him, and as Henry De Bromhead says, Sizing Europe has no turn of foot, he just keeps galloping, so rather disappointing that a horse like Big Zeb with such a strong turn of foot couldn’t keep up.
Couple that with the fact that Sizing Europe is 4/5 at Cheltenham (and let’s face it, we all know that 1st number would be different were it not for injury) and I really don’t know how Big Zeb can reverse the form with him, at least at Cheltenham.
At 7/1 though, I do think Big Zeb is a decent punt in the event that Sizing Europe gets injured, but I’m not sure you have a chance of collecting otherwise.
There’s not a lot of strength in depth in the 2-mile division, and I feel that old age very rarely shows until the Spring Festivals.
I agree, there is little "strength in depth in the 2-mile division. Which is why we should consider backing an 11 year old.
Baracouda won his 1st 2 races of his final season, Hardy Eustace was victorious on his NH seasonal debuts as a 9, 10 and 11yo & did nothing the rest of the seasons, Well Chief was victorious against Master Minded in November a couple of years back & flopped on his other 4 starts, Beef or Salmon won Grade 1s in his 9/10yo season before flopping at Punchestown (and Cheltenham, obviously), etc.
The one you missed out is Moscow Flyer, the last victorious Champion Chase 11 year old in 2005. What about 10 year olds (Sizing Europe’s)? The last 10 year old to win it was One Man back in 1998. They said 5 year olds couldn’t win it before Master Minded.
In last year’s Gold Cup two 11 year olds finished second and third. Does that mean age stats are significant? Well they were beaten by a six year old, they hadn’t won since Mill House in 1963.
And it makes sense too. They have the summer to freshen up and come back as fit horses in good form, but their fitness doesn’t extend to the entire season as it used to when they had younger legs and struggle to keep up with those with greater fitness levels.
Or on the other hand, perhaps the trainers recognise that they won’t be able to remain competitive for the entirety of the season and train them hard in the summer to make sure they’re at 100% for November and December, and perhaps even January & February. I very much doubt this is the case with Colm Murphy and Big Zeb, whereas I expect this is exactly the case with Paul Nicholls and Kauto Star.
I don’t see the logic in that at all Zark. It stands to reason an older horse is more likely to be capable of his form earlier in the season than when anno domini catches up with them. Nothing to do with how many runs a horse has.
Value Is EverythingSorry Reet,
Sizing Europe is top price 100/30. To be worth a bet at that price a punter needs to believe he has better than a 23% chance of winning. Where as Big Zeb is 7/1, a punter needs to believe he has a better than 12.5% chance. There is the age thing, but does Sizing Europe really have almost double the chance of Big Zeb? A couple that on form are of very similar ability. And in my opinion Big Zeb has a better than 12.5% chance. At this stage I’d estimate Sizing Europe at around 20% and Big Zeb 16%.you are guessing, surely. How you can say that big zeb has only 4 percent less chance of winning the race than sizing europe is beyond me.
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I don’t think for a second that Sizing Europe ran below form at Punchestown, I just think that he needs more of a galloping track and is obviously very much at home at Cheltenham.
God forbid you should introduce minor details like track configuration into a discussion with our resident "form expert", Zark.
Far easier for him to decide horses are going up and down in form or disappointing (in equal measure,ffs), than for him to actually figure out why.I don’t think for a second that Sizing Europe ran below form at Punchestown, I just think that he needs more of a galloping track and is obviously very much at home at Cheltenham.
Eh?
Was his performance as good at Punchestown as Cheltenham or not? If Sizing Europe is better at Cheltenham then you’re saying he was below form at Punchestown. If below form at Punchestown, then Captain Cee Bee must be equally below form at Punchestown. Is there any evidence of that?Indeed, I think Big Zeb is a horse who excels around Punchestown, although I’m not sure his record there conclusively proves that. A fall behind Mansony when cruising, the narrow defeat to Golden Silver in January, the defeat by a nose to Master Minded when BZ ploughed through the last and finishing 2nd to Sizing Europe over hurdles 2 starts before SE won the Greatwood Hurdle.
So was Big Zeb below form when winning the Champion Chase?
Did he have excuses at Cheltenham in March? Not that I can see. He came hard on the bridle turning into the straight, came off the bridle around the same moment as SE, and I believe only got as close as he did between the 2nd last and last because SE got in very close to the 2nd last. After the last Big Zeb just couldn’t keep up with him, and as Henry De Bromhead says, Sizing Europe has no turn of foot, he just keeps galloping, so rather disappointing that a horse like Big Zeb with such a strong turn of foot couldn’t keep up.
I think it’s bxxxxxxs that Sizing Europe has "no turn of foot", in fact I believe he has more pace than Big Zeb. Murphy’s charge could not quicken as well as De Bromhead’s at Cheltenham. In a comparitively slowly run race, where Sizing Europe also had the advantage of racing prominently / front running and Big Zeb made a couple of bad errors. With Finians Rainbow to take Sizing Europe on, he should not get his own way in front this time around and it should be a more truly run race.
Couple that with the fact that Sizing Europe is 4/5 at Cheltenham (and let’s face it, we all know that 1st number would be different were it not for injury) and I really don’t know how Big Zeb can reverse the form with him, at least at Cheltenham.
By having the better form.
At 7/1 though, I do think Big Zeb is a decent punt in the event that Sizing Europe gets injured, but I’m not sure you have a chance of collecting otherwise.
I do hope whoever rides Big Zeb at Cheltenham can get him jumping fluently, if so (and if age is not catching up with him by then) I think Big Zeb has a good chance of reversing form. Enough to make 7/1 look very attractive odds anyway. We shall see Zark.
Value Is Everything
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Touche H.
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