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108p steve
Thanks very much for that. The Racing Post have him on 105 and that seemed a little cautious by their standard. I would have Woottom with a big P myself, as he seemed pretty clueless first time and was hardly fully extended next time.
I would expect that Wootton may take in the Prix Djebel or Fontainebleau as a trial in April. Despite two wins at a mile at two, he seems to have the pace to drop to the 7F of the Djebel if required.
Having already won at a mile he has no question mark on trip but he’s obviously not as hardened as some. On the plus side he’s probably the least exposed and he’s not far from the leaders, who may have 7-10 lbs as their limit for improvement next year.
I will be making Wootton my first serious bet on the race sometime next spring and will move whenever it seems that the 16/1 may dry up.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
thanks for clearing that up GT thought,just a slip by you (I am sure) Laurens won the fillies mile not cheveley park
Oops. What comes of an old boy subconciously not associating the Fillies Mile with Newmarket. Glad you knew what I meant, nwalton.
Value Is EverythingWootton is 8/1 for French 2000G with Paddy Power
Thanks for that Sunspangled. I couldn’t see him quoted on Oddschecker. The page that came up there only quoted 3 horses for the race and one of them is a Filly!
I feel that he’s more likely to go to the Newmarket race though, because I don’t see Godolphin having a strong candidate for the race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Territories, who was trained by Andre Fabre for Godolphin, would point to this. He was their only representative in the 2000G, having won the Prix Fontainebleau, and he ran second to Gleneagles. Lacking a candidate themselves again, they surely purchased Wootton with a view to the 2000G (there doesn’t appear to be any other horse in the betting that they can purchase over the winter).
Shouldn’t they all come with a p
unless they don’t think they will train on, grow over the winterGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Shouldn’t they all come with a p
unless they don’t think they will train on, grow over the winterUS Navy Flag surely lacks the scope of others. Not just that he ran so often, but on 122 he doesn’t have far to go to reach the “Glass Ceiling” created by the average rating for a top class horse at 3YO.
A horse could improve 3 stones from two to three but not when they start that second season already rated 122. It would amount to a final rating of 164 if they did. As they said on Little Britain, “Computer Says No”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Shouldn’t they all come with a p
unless they don’t think they will train on, grow over the winterRatings account for the natural progression of horses, Nathan.
ie Horses need to effectively make around 7 lbs of natural progression just to stay at their two year old rating. Or to put it another way, if not making that 7lb progression their rating will go down. “p” horses are those likely to make more than natural progression/improve their rating.Value Is EverythingI was checking the ratings for European 2YOs while I was looking for information on Wootton. The Alex Pantall twitter site had stated that only six French horses had made the Top 30 and Wootton is in there on 112.
The List doesn’t seem that different to the Timeform one on my quick glance and the one thing I did see that stood out for me was a German trained horse rated 112.
The horse is a colt trained by Markus Klug and he is called Erasmus. Erasmus is in good company on 112, along with Wootton, Masar, Elarqam, Nelson, September, Seahenge, Sacred Life and September.
Trying to find more about Erasmus was tough. He’s by Reliable Man, a sire who has a modest enough stud fee of six thousand Euros, considering that he won the French Derby the year that Roderic O’Connor represented Aidan O’Brien.
Reliable Man’s form started with four wins from his 1st five starts but he would only win once from his next nine starts, a sequence that included a 23rd of 24 in the Arc.
The Racing Post show only one start for Erasmus, the Group 3 Pries Des Winterfavoriten at Cologne in October they did not give the horse a rating though. From further research it seems that Erasmus was third on his debut before winning on his second start. The Group win appears to have been his third start.
The race was over 1 mile and on soft ground. In what looked testing conditions Erasmus just kept galloping on strongly to draw right away and win by 8 lengths.
Obviously the mud and late season can exaggerate winning margins and conditions made it look like the closing stages of a bumper but it might be worth seeing Erasmus again. He clearly stays well.
Video:-
Erasmus is in the yellow sleeves with a red hat and the jockey is vigorous from the start to get him near the head of affairs. It seems a clear case that it’s stamina that is his forte and he wouldn’t get within hailing distance of Wootton at a mile on good ground. His future looks to be at 12F
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
September rated lower than Masar is just ridiculous
Why?
Would you rate Happily behind September? If so, why?
I wouldn’t.
But I’d have her above Masar.
Always liked what I have seen from September.
Likewise. As everyone would know by now, I’ve said since her debut she is an Oaks filly.
That run on the dog track in the states last time after her run on the correct ground at Newmarket does nothing but further my view that she wins at Epsom.
September rated lower than Masar is just ridiculous
Why?
Would you rate Happily behind September? If so, why?
I wouldn’t.
But I’d have her above Masar.
Timeform have Masar 1 lb below Happily.
They have Masar 1 lb above September.
Happily 116p, Masar 115, September 114p.So when you’re rating Happily better than September, MOM; how many pounds would you rate Masar below Happily?
Happily beat Masar 1 1/4 lengths and a short neck with the colt giving the filly 3 lbs.
How is it “ridiculous” to rate Masar above September when Masar finished so close to Happily in the Lagadere giving her weight?
I wouldn’t have any problem with anyone interpating the form as Happily 1 lb in front of September and Happily 2 lbs in front of Masar (September 1 lb in front of Masar). But that is in effect calling the difference of opinion of 1 lb “ridiculous”… which is in itself ridiculous.
Value Is EverythingI think you could argue that September could be rated higher than happily on fillies mile form(where she got her ground)
This is where at times,you can go against OR,RPR and Timeform and maybe get a better price,then all you have to do is back the winner lolI think you could argue that September could be rated higher than happily on fillies mile form(where she got her ground)
This is where at times,you can go against OR,RPR and Timeform and maybe get a better price,then all you have to do is back the winner lolWere it not for the Godolphin factor, it would be very easy to argue that Magic Lily is the one to take from the Fillies Mile. Having just her second start and going from Novice company straight into Group 1, she has only been beaten 3/4 of a length.
By a Derby winner, out of an Oaks winner, she has had four fewer runs than September, yet is double the odds of September at 20/1 for the Oaks.
I reckon that was a cracking effort on only her second career start and when you consider that Gosden’s Highgarden is only five points bigger for winning a Novice race, you have to believe that some people feel the trainer can find another Enable every season.
Magic Lily looks a bigger filly with time on her side. Maybe just a bit weak for now, because she looked to be coming to mow Laurens down at one stage, before weakening slightly as September was staying on.
This was Magic Lily’s debut and it shouted Oaks to me at the time:-
http://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/video/20170923/2716249/16277571
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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