Timeform Racehorses of 2010 – Top Ratings

[davidjohnson]

The stayers ratings are certainly all open to scrutiny, as I said in the blog, it wasn’t a year that a genuine top horse did it throughout the year. We took a high view of the Yorkshire Cup at the time, and Manifest was 127p going into the Gold Cup. Given what happened there, with him pulling hard, possibly not staying or not letting himself down on the firmish ground, I was inclined to put a line through it.

I don’t think a strong pace is essential to Purple Moon, remember he won a messy listed race at Goodwood prior to his Ebor. The Gold Cup is a unique test and I agree that comparing that form with other efforts isn’t the easiest. The Yorkshire Cup form could be rated lower, and time may show it needs to be, but I didn’t think there was compelling enough evidence to pull it down on the back of subsequent 2010 runs of the first 3.

Anyway, Wajir boosted it at Meydan this afternoon!

Hopefully Rite of Passage and Manifest can meet in 2011 and we’ll get some answers.

[Gingertipster]

Fair enough David.

Must be very tricky rating horses like Manifest.

Sadly, this term Manifest has to get over whatever kept him off the course after Ascot. And Rite Of Passage will be 7 years old and possibly past his best. So whatever happens in 2011 won’t prove how good they were in 2010.

Good luck.

Value Is Everything

[Anonymous]

reet hard – For the record, contrary to your post, Timeform rated Cape Blanco’s King George run 10lb below his Irish Champion rating and 3lb below his Irish Derby rating.

Brevity
And for the record, and contrary to your post, I never mentioned the Irish Champion.
Phil Smith most certainly did rate the KG around Cape Blanco, and without actually knowing Timeform and other ratings, I assumed they had done much the same – obviously not – but if he’s rated on time, (can’t believe he’s rated around Youmzain) maybe someone could avail us of Yashrid’s rating on the day, for the same c/d?

Jonibake
6 off the 8 races on Irish Derby day were run under standard: the one after Cape Blanco’s, over the same c/d and won by the 87 rated Bay Willow, only 1.25secs slower.
I’m not suggesting the race was slowly run, just not at the stamina sapping pace of the KG.

[The Ante-Post King]

Anyway, Wajir boosted it at Meydan this afternoon!

And

Claremont

devalued it at the same time! Wajir has done nothing to confirm the Yorkshire cup form since the race itself and

Manifest

being a difficult horse to assess Ginge?

[Jonibake]

[Jonibake
6 off the 8 races on Irish Derby day were run under standard: the one after Cape Blanco’s, over the same c/d and won by the 87 rated Bay Willow, only 1.25secs slower.
I’m not suggesting the race was slowly run, just not at the stamina sapping pace of the KG.

Is that the same handicap snip Bay Willow that ran off 8st 4 and is now rated 102?

I give up. Harbinger was a dog. The day he won the KG cruising past a stellar field at the 2 pole, Cape Blanco didnt stay (even 10f), Youmzain was past it and Daryakana had a migraine.

"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

[Anonymous]

Is that the same handicap snip Bay Willow that ran off 8st 4 and is now rated 102?
I give up.

Maybe you should?
Even his current 101 (gained after his subsequent beating off 93, and not allowing for improvement in the interim) suggests the Irish Derby was run at no more than listed pace.

[Jonibake]

Is that the same handicap snip Bay Willow that ran off 8st 4 and is now rated 102?
I give up.

Maybe you should?
Even his current 101 (gained after his subsequent beating off 93, and not allowing for improvement in the interim) suggests the Irish Derby was run at no more than listed pace.

Oh come on reet – listed pace? Be serious! Just watch the race again and tell me honestly that it wasnt a truly run race won by a horse that stayed the trip well. They were strung out like washing before the straight! It was the 3rd fastest time in the last 20 years!

Cape Blanco may well be better at 10f but he was no mug over 12f either and whatever your opinion there is no doubting the ease in which Harbinger cruised past the whole field 2 furlongs out long before stamina became an issue.

"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

[The Ante-Post King]

Oh come on reet – listed pace? Be serious!

Jonibake dont let reet wind you up! I used to think he was having a laugh when he would constantly slate the genuine Group 1 performer

Fame and Glory

!! Turned out he was deadly serious! He"s doing just the same with

Cape Blanco

! reet and his ratings concern me!

[Jonibake]

Oh come on reet – listed pace? Be serious!

Jonibake dont let reet wind you up! I used to think he was having a laugh when he would constantly slate the genuine Group 1 performer

Fame and Glory

!! Turned out he was deadly serious! He"s doing just the same with

Cape Blanco

! reet and his ratings concern me!

Thanks TAPK. I am biting my lip

"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

[Anonymous]

Aye, Fame And Glory’s another that was overrated for his Irish Derby win and a 10f win against a non-stayer – a mark he never got near again in 8 subsequent races.

[Cav]

Cheers Chiswickian,

Regarding the weight for age allowances… the official allowances differ by country. The official UK scale uses 7lbs for 3yo’s over 12f in the latter half of October. Looking at the weights in the Premio Del Jockey Club, the wfa allowance used by the Italians appears to be 5lbs. So using the UK scale, Lord Chaparral has conceded 2lbs to the winner for a short head defeat and thus gets the bigger rating (124 for the winner, 126 for the runner up, using 1.5lbs per length over 12f). The official UK wfa scale is listed here…

http://www.allaboutbetting.co.uk/horser … orage.html

I take all your opinions on board. As mentioned I have calculated my ratings purely mathematically, subjective opinions such as pace, fitness, suitability of track/distance etc… are not factored. Its purely pounds and lengths and the ratings the beaten horses have run to in previous races, then worked out, using the Raceform scale.

Anyway, I have a years worth now and I look forward to doing them as the 2011 season progresses. I’ll post them in "Trends and Research" and hopefully we can generate some discussion, in amongst all the regal self congratulation in that section of the forum.

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