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.
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I’m definitely not cut out for this game. According to your figures Paco Boy is superior to Canford Cliffs and I could have swore Hughsie said he wasn’t in the same county let alone the same leugue.
Please educate me. None of that makes even the remotest bit of sense to me. What am I missing?
The problem handicappers have is that they have to assess what actually happened, rather than what the jockey thinks.
Cheers, Fist and well spotted. For some reason the BC Classic wasn’t outputted in my last database export. I gave Blame a 129 for that, still inferior to Lookin At Lucky. The ratings are weight adjusted so you will at times have a runner up getting a better rating than a winner based on weight conceded and they are calculated devoid of any human subjective opinion (purely weights and lengths).
I gave Lookin At Lucky a 130 for beating Preakness runner up First Dude 4 lengths (conceded 4 lbs) and Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver 5 lengths in the Heskell. Blames BC win is slightly anchored by Zenyatta ironically enough I suppose, but I couldn’t have given her a big rating pre BC 2010 based on her form against inferior filles last year. Quality Road got a 129 for going down just a head in the Whitney Handicap to Blame where he gave 5lbs to the winner and gave Preakness third Musket Man almost a 2 length beating, conceding 9lbs to him in the process.
As for Paco Boy and Canford Cliffs, I still rate Paco Boy going down narrowly to as good as ever Goldikova in the Queen Anne conceding 3lbs in the process as slightly superior to Canford Cliffs victory against an exposed and slighty in decline Rip Van Winkle in the Sussex. That said Canford Cliffs appeared to be the more progressive animal as 2010 wore on and will probably have more to offer this year.
But its all about opinions of course and sometimes there isnt a huge amount of previous ratings to work with, particularly when it comes to US racing.
The updated list containing the Breeders Cup Classic is…
Harbinger 138
Nakayama Festa 135
Workforce 134
Cape Blanco 133
Makfi 132
Lookin At Lucky 130
Quality Road 129
Paco Boy 129
Blame 129
Behkabad 128
Canford Cliffs 128
Rip Van Winkle 127
Sarafina 127
Goldikova 127
Fame And Glory 127
Twice Over 126
Zenyatta 126
Poet’s Voice 126
Marinous 126
Lord Chaparral 126
Dick Turpin 126
Red Jazz 125
Quijano 125
Rose Kingdom 125
Victoire Pisa 125
Gio Ponti 125
Night Magic 125
Irian 125
Dangerous Midge 125
Americain 125
Byword 125http://www.horseracingintfed.com/resour … nkings.asp
I’ll recover by tomorrow……
I see Hooray is rated 117 whereas Dream Ahead is 128 on the international ratings and I believe most handicappers have a similar gap. But they ran almost identical times over the same day and distance at Newmarket when Dream Ahead won the Middle Park and Hooray won the Cheveley. So why the gap in the rating?
Shame this thread has turned into another ‘Look at Me’ thread courtesy of your majesty.
Shame that you have to use the forum to advertise Timeform DJ! Do you think the exaggerated rating of
Frankel
will help sell this years Annual? Timeform thrives on those who cant think for themselves and the amount of mug punters that still think there is a mystique about Timeforms top rated is comical! Your Majesty promotes Foresight,Timeform sells hindsight!
Completely out of order TAPK – David contacted me before posting anything and I was only too happy to have the Timeform ratings and discussion thereof appear on the forum.
Plenty of thoughtful and profitable punters (well able to think for themselves) use Timeform extensively to augment their own views.
Can I ask you to curb your enthusiasm – your tips are on here, people can all see for ourselves whether you are any good, you don’t need to repeatedly point them out, it’s becoming extremely tiresome.
If this was a football forum TAPK would be called a WUM. Pinch of salt gentlemen.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Here here Corm.
I for one am very interested in Timeform’s excellent ratings. And use most of their products. But I do have my own ideas as well.
Thanks David, enlightening stuff.
Value Is EverythingYoumzain put in three consistent performances before the Arc. His Ascot run put him 3.5 lengths behind Cape Blanco over 12 furlongs. His Epsom race put him 3.5 lengths behind Fame and Glory. The neck between Youmzain and Daryakana at both Ascot and Saint Cloud showed him running to the same level of form. At that level of form, Harbinger would have beaten Fame and Glory by about 10 lengths. He deserves the high rating.
A you might guess with a name like Timeform, they would only confirm a high form rating if the time justified it. I don’t know how Timeform measure their time or calculate their figures, but the official time for the race was exceptional. Other than Harbinger’s race, the fastest of the day was in a £70,000 very competitive 21-runner handicap over 7 furlongs where the time was faster than standard by 0.007 seconds per furlong. Harbinger’s time was faster than standard by 0.285 seconds per furlong. Timeform are right in arguing that Harbinger’s performance on that day was exceptional. You are right in that Sea The Stars demonstrated he was a much “better” racehorse because he put up several exceptional performances over different courses and distances.
Good reasoning there MV.
Thumbs up.
Value Is Everything
- Total Posts 17716
Don’t have the figs to hand and am at home now, but 128 would have been enough to see Dream Ahead Champion juvenile in any of the previous 5 years.
Must have been a poor lot of juvenilles then IMVHO.
He can’t be far in front of Blue Conselaltion if his form is to be believed. Italy must be catching up with the UK.
Wonder where he will fit in when the european 2yo’s are assessed.
Can I ask you to curb your enthusiasm –
I am what i am
I am my own special creation
,
So come take a look
Give me the formbook
and then the ovation,
Its my world
that i want to have
a little pride in
my world
and its not a place
i have to hide in
lifes not worth a dam
till i can say
I am what i am!I am what i am
I"ll take the praise
i dont want pityI bang my own drum
some think its noise
i think its pretty
and so what if i love each winner
and each bangle
why not see things from
TAPK"s different angle
your life is a sham
till you can shout out
i am what i am!and i"m one in a million
!!
- Total Posts 17716
Youmzain put in three consistent performances before the Arc. His Ascot run put him 3.5 lengths behind Cape Blanco over 12 furlongs. His Epsom race put him 3.5 lengths behind Fame and Glory. The neck between Youmzain and Daryakana at both Ascot and Saint Cloud showed him running to the same level of form. At that level of form, Harbinger would have beaten Fame and Glory by about 10 lengths. He deserves the high rating.
A you might guess with a name like Timeform, they would only confirm a high form rating if the time justified it. I don’t know how Timeform measure their time or calculate their figures, but the official time for the race was exceptional. Other than Harbinger’s race, the fastest of the day was in a £70,000 very competitive 21-runner handicap over 7 furlongs where the time was faster than standard by 0.007 seconds per furlong. Harbinger’s time was faster than standard by 0.285 seconds per furlong. Timeform are right in arguing that Harbinger’s performance on that day was exceptional. You are right in that Sea The Stars demonstrated he was a much “better” racehorse because he put up several exceptional performances over different courses and distances.
Youmzain had been beaten by the modest High Heeled in the Coronation, and ran a close 2nd to the more modest Plumania in France – 2 runs which saw him dropped 8lbs to 117 by the OH, prior to his run in the King George. Considering his subsequent run in the Arc, it’s no given that he ran near that mark against Harbinger.
It’s also pointless comparing straight course times at Ascot with those on the round course, they are entirely different, and have been ever since the reconstruction. With its state of the art drainage and turfing, the straight course is far less susceptible to rapid changes in the going, and on a drying day, it’s probable that the round course was significantly faster, an assumption borne out by the time of the (subsequently) 86 rated Yashrid over the same c/d, which – if Timeform’s 140 for Harbinger is to be believed – ran close to a 100.
There’s also the question of improvement in form which, even in the care of SMS, is usually quite linear. The OH shows Harbinger’s at around 4lb per race previous to the KG, RPR only a little higher, so where did the 12lbs he found in the KG (OH’s figures – I have no idea of TF’s rating for the Hardwicke) suddenly spring from?
High class horse Harbinger certainly is, best in the world, I sincerely doubt it.Shame this thread has turned into another ‘Look at Me’ thread courtesy of your majesty.
Shame that you have to use the forum to advertise Timeform DJ! Do you think the exaggerated rating of
Frankel
will help sell this years Annual? Timeform thrives on those who cant think for themselves and the amount of mug punters that still think there is a mystique about Timeforms top rated is comical! Your Majesty promotes Foresight,Timeform sells hindsight!
Actually, it’s quite interesting reading and always good to see how it compares to other peoples ratings.
Truth be known, it does get very tiring seeing you hijack threads with your "look at me I’m great" statements.
Boring, boring, boring!!
It seems to me that the handicapper are being selective in the way they rate certain horses.
Harbinger seems to have been given a rating based upon one single performance – his King George victory which was surely too good to be true? The super fast time has to be questionable as it can only be properly compared with KGs run on the "new" Ascot as opposed to all the previous 54 renewals.
What about his seasonal reappearance, beating Manifest, a flop in the Ascot GC, only 3 lengths? Is that form worthy of such a lofty end of season rating?
Is he really worthy of being rated within 1lb of Sea The Stars who swept through an unbeaten 3 year old campaign of 6 Group 1’s, including two classics?
Yes, Workforce went on to perform heroics in the Arc, thereby franking the form, but there is aboslutely no way he ran to anything like his best at Ascot – another reason to cast a long shadow over the form. As for Cape Blanco, he was let loose on the front end at Leopardstown, and whilst Murtagh and Queally watched each other, Blanco had flown.
Yes, Youmzain is a solid enough yardstick, however he has failed to run up to anywhere near his Arc perfromance of last year, and in this year’s Arc was soundly beaten by Workforce by a similar distance to that which Harbinger beat him at Ascot.
It seems as if Harbinger has captured the imagination of the handicappers in a way that Sea The Stars was unable to, which, considering Sea The Stars’ quite remarkable and unique sequence of victories, is hard to fathom.
Personally I can’t see what all this fuss is about. It was a quite scintillating performance from a horse that was very much on the upgrade and typical improvement from a Stoute horse.
Even allowing for the below par performances of some of the opposition they can’t ALL have run badly. Also a good judge would watch the
manner
of that victory. Sometimes you have to throw the form book out of the window and just watch and admire the horse.
Rubbishing him because he beat a horse that failed to stay in the Gold Cup is silly. Manifest won the Yorkshire Cup by 8 lengths and was actually rated the top stayer of 2010!
Such a shame that he didn’t get the chance to prove his brilliance.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
- Total Posts 17716
Dear Cav,
Of all the glaring "errors" or "miscalculations" in the lists provided I’m very surprised when it comes to your Dangerous Midge/Lord Chaparral/Rainbow Peak formline assesment. LC 126? Nothing there for Rainbow Peak? Please explain.I’m also inclined to agree with the World Rankings figure for Workforce ( 128 eq Makfi ) rather than what others have produced. Both he and Makfi produced sub par performances more than once ( with excuses ).
Congratulations to Cormack15 for finally taking a harder line with the world’s worst self promoter and destroyer of intelligent discussion. I’m sure if everyone sent him to Coventry he’d get the message soon enough.
Congrats also to all who have produced figures to be shot down. It takes courage to generate discussion on this contentious issue every year.
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