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I’m not a subscriber so I can’t comment on their whole service but judging by their comments on racecards on the attheraces website it looks as though I won’t be subscribing any time soon. Some of the rubbish written is fairly poor. Today lord Windermere’s write up says “Not added to his 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup win but not disgraced in this race in April, only one of 2 to land any sort of blow from rear (finished seventh). No sure thing to build on that, however.”
Not disgraced in this race in April? Becher chase ran in April last year was it?
Last week or the week before they described kilcarry bridge as a bad jumper. This Horse has never fallen and its his jumping that won him his races.
Is it a service worth paying for?
get your tin hat on GT will be along shortly.
I wont go over old ground but I was a big fan, but last few years it has gone gradually down hill, with silly symbols etc, plus write ups are now not as good. All in my opinion others (GT) disagree, which is fair enough.
So yeah wexford I agree with you
Are you going to judge Timeform on one person copying the information down wrong when doing the Betfair free write up, TWM? “This race” should’ve read the “Grand National”, no big deal surely? Meaning of the comment is the same. Stuff subscribers pay for had no mistake.
As for Kilcarry Bridge, you’re making the same mistake as a lot of punters. Horses don’t need to “fall” to jump badly. Lots of horses lose their winning chance by making mistakes – including Kilcarry Bridge. When he wins he jumps better than he usually does. I suggest you look at his chase starts and you’ll see what I mean.
Yes, it’s worth paying for. Couldn’t have given up work without it.
Value Is EverythingIts not just those two examples, there are more. They are just ones I can remember exactly. I’ll post more questionable ones when they appear as I’m looking at cards in future.
not worth paying for(once at one time) and I gave up work as well, but I’ve always been lazy
Have to agree with you twm.
A long time ago they were worth their money but I can never get my head round how they select horses that are not top rated . I know gt will say thats because of ground past performances etc but surely their ratings sgould take into account all that and so should their write ups.
Sadly the best by far was Superform from years gone by who I subscribed to and were head and shoulders above Timeform however the internet killed them off sadly.
I know use my own judgement. We are only human after all and I beleive my judgement is as good as the next man.Oh Droffats,
If you were using Timeform like that then am not surprised you think that way.
Value Is EverythingI stick mainly with the 50 to follow mainly because I’m less intensive than most punters. The write ups are superb. Readable and genuinely insightful. I’m far from one to follow these signposts religiously but it’s certainly highlighted some decent winners this year too
GT, i have always dabbled with subscribing to see what its about more than anything….
Would you recommend it and in as many words as you like (few or many) whats good about it?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I don’t know how good your racing knowledge is at the moment, Jack.
I wouldn’t recommend it to a newcomer to racing. But I’d recommend Timeform Race Pases to anyone who’s got a good understanding of the different aspects of form and importance of value… And willing to put in the necessary time studying.
People wrongly tend to judge Timeform on the “top rated”; there’s far more to it than that. I like Race Passses because: It’s easy to work out the probable leader, who’ll race prominently, track pace, race mid-div, be held up or dropped out – ie who’s likely to be suited by how a race will be run. Easier to make judgements on temperament – often a horse may have the best form but temperament means it’s highly unlikely to show that form. I can see if a horse is best fresh or likely to need the run. A good or poor jumper. A poor jumper is not necessarily just one that falls a lot; it’s more one that makes too many mistakes that more often than not compromise its chance. Similarly, a good jumper is not necessarily one that doesn’t fall – it’s often one that usually makes lengths at its fences. If there was valid excuses or ran better than its finishing position suggests last time out. If it’s likely to improve or is on the downgrade. What sort of form the trainer is in and/or whether he/she is usually in good or poor form this time of year or a good/poor record at the track. Every performance of every horse has a Performance Rating, so I can make a decision if each horse is likely to be suited by the going and/or the speed/stamina test at the trip.
The problem with how a lot of punters use Timeform is they want it to come up with one horse as a definite bet. That’s all wrong – because the odds may well be too short. Above all, Race Passes enables me to evaluate form in to chance in order to come to a conclusion which horse/s are value (good) bets. Value bets can be the 100/1 rank outsider, or a 20/1 shot or 10/1, 7/2 or even the odds-on favourite.
Hope that helps Jack.
Let me know if you do decide to take the plunge, can give you more pointers on how to use Timeform for profit.
Value Is EverythingI’ve pulled their ratings apart lately.
If anyone wants a spreadsheet with strike rates for all the ranks and pounds behind the top rated divided by handicaps and non handicaps, for all UK racing going back to late 2013, pm me and I’ll email it to you.
For example the strike rate for Timeform second rated horses in handicaps, 1 pound behind the top rated is 14.79%. That kind of thing. Could be a solid fundamental starting point for your tissue prices, then adjust for your own context and detail.
Wouldn’t argue with Ginger on the data contained within Race Passes, but I certainly wouldn’t be paying 75 quid a month for their ratings alone. Much of a muchness with the other collateral form ratings providers imo.
No Cav, there is no way a statistic like that can be a “fundamental starting point for tissue prices”. It means nothing to any individual race’s tissue. There is so much more that can affect a price, “context and detail” means the correct tissue price of such a horse could be odds-on, 20/1+ outsider or anything in between.
Got to have an overall view of a horse – and every other horse in the race – before even thinking of a tissue price.
Value Is EverythingOkay Ginger, thanks for that. Personally I think starting with each runners current ability rating, ascribing that rating a general percentage chance, then making adjustments to that general percentage chance for EVERYTHING else, isn’t a bad way to go, but your the Timeform expert around here.
Anyway now that over 6000 TRF subscribers have PM’ed wishing to avail of my exclusive Christmas offer, I hope you wont be having any sleepless nights over it.
Tried to edit that post but couldn’t due to “maintainance”, Cav. Sorry it was too dismissive.
What I missed out/meant to say was:A horse’s “current ability rating” is useless if it doesn’t act on the ground or stay or is in any other way not likely to run anywhere near that rating, so it may be four times less than that “general percentage” figure – which bears no relation to it.
I find it best not to have any arbitary amount to start.
My first job is to go through all runners rating each trainer for “trainer in form”. Then see how every runner likes to be ridden, front runner, races prominently, tracks pace, held up or drops out. Is there a particular runner/s likely to get the race run to suit? Then go through all the relevent form of each horse individually (top rated would be a good place to start). Sometimes need to just go back a couple of runs, sometimes a lot further. Paying particular attention to not only going but will it have the requisite speed or stamina at the trip on that particular going? eg Had it not been very stamina testing ground at Aintree I’d have severe doubts whether Gas Line Boy would’ve had enough speed for the Grand Sefton. But on heavy it’s fine/suited him. Also taking account of things like temperament and consistency – how likely a horse is of showing its form. After going through the second horse will probably know which one I believe has the better chance… same thing after the third horse, fourth etc. After doing the whole field noting them down from best chance (1) down to worst (however many in the race). For big fields sometimes innitially break the race up in to two. Bringging them back together to ask which number 1 has the best chance etc.
Then, there’s often a percentage to start it all off that shouts at me. eg I might think the horse with the best chance has just as good a chance as the others put together – ie a 50% Evens chance. Or may be I think just short of 50% say, 44% 5/4. Or may be two horses together (the best and second best I think have a 50% chance combined, with one having a touch better than the other – 28% tissue 5/2 and 22% tissue 7/2. Or any three horses adding up to 50%. Or split the race in to three, with one horse slightly more than a third (36% 7/4) one slightly worse than a third (31% 9/4) and the Field as one third (33% 2/1) 36 + 31 + 33 = 100%, then split that 33% “The Field” down further. Another race might be easier to start with the outsiders, one might have a very poor chance 1% 100/1. The next worst having treble that one’s chance – 3% 33/1, the next having 1 1/2 times that one 4.5% 22/1, the next those two combined (3 + 4.5 = 7.5%) 12/1… and so on. When the numbers add up to less or more than 100% alter those figures until it looks right and you’ve got a 100% book. I then check the odds by asking myself if Horse D and F together really do have a better chance than B etc.
Value Is EverythingGT- Thank you for the great reply!
I understand what you mean regarding the problems people have with Timeform- i think a lot of people have the “tipster” attitude in that they expect winning tips from the service, rather than an indepth service providing you with as much information as possible to allow you to make an informed decision yourself.
Just had a flick around the Timeform Race Pass freebie for today, being the Peterborough Chase. I can certainly see the very good indepth information they provide you with. I am going to maybe take a pass out for the weekend and see what i think!
Cheers again, and if i have anything i hope you don’t mind if i PM you!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
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