Dec 14, 2017 at 15:22 #1331955
Tried to edit that post but couldn’t due to “maintainance”, Cav. Sorry it was too dismissive.
What I missed out/meant to say was:
A horse’s “current ability rating” is useless if it doesn’t act on the ground or stay or is in any other way not likely to run anywhere near that rating, so it may be four times less than that “general percentage” figure – which bears no relation to it.
I find it best not to have any arbitary amount to start.
My first job is to go through all runners rating each trainer for “trainer in form”. Then see how every runner likes to be ridden, front runner, races prominently, tracks pace, held up or drops out. Is there a particular runner/s likely to get the race run to suit? Then go through all the relevent form of each horse individually (top rated would be a good place to start). Sometimes need to just go back a couple of runs, sometimes a lot further. Paying particular attention to not only going but will it have the requisite speed or stamina at the trip on that particular going? eg Had it not been very stamina testing ground at Aintree I’d have severe doubts whether Gas Line Boy would’ve had enough speed for the Grand Sefton. But on heavy it’s fine/suited him. Also taking account of things like temperament and consistency – how likely a horse is of showing its form. After going through the second horse will probably know which one I believe has the better chance… same thing after the third horse, fourth etc. After doing the whole field noting them down from best chance (1) down to worst (however many in the race). For big fields sometimes innitially break the race up in to two. Bringging them back together to ask which number 1 has the best chance etc.
Then, there’s often a percentage to start it all off that shouts at me. eg I might think the horse with the best chance has just as good a chance as the others put together – ie a 50% Evens chance. Or may be I think just short of 50% say, 44% 5/4. Or may be two horses together (the best and second best I think have a 50% chance combined, with one having a touch better than the other – 28% tissue 5/2 and 22% tissue 7/2. Or any three horses adding up to 50%. Or split the race in to three, with one horse slightly more than a third (36% 7/4) one slightly worse than a third (31% 9/4) and the Field as one third (33% 2/1) 36 + 31 + 33 = 100%, then split that 33% “The Field” down further. Another race might be easier to start with the outsiders, one might have a very poor chance 1% 100/1. The next worst having treble that one’s chance – 3% 33/1, the next having 1 1/2 times that one 4.5% 22/1, the next those two combined (3 + 4.5 = 7.5%) 12/1… and so on. When the numbers add up to less or more than 100% alter those figures until it looks right and you’ve got a 100% book. I then check the odds by asking myself if Horse D and F together really do have a better chance than B etc.value is everythingDec 14, 2017 at 17:29 #1331977
- Total Posts 1051
GT- Thank you for the great reply!
I understand what you mean regarding the problems people have with Timeform- i think a lot of people have the “tipster” attitude in that they expect winning tips from the service, rather than an indepth service providing you with as much information as possible to allow you to make an informed decision yourself.
Just had a flick around the Timeform Race Pass freebie for today, being the Peterborough Chase. I can certainly see the very good indepth information they provide you with. I am going to maybe take a pass out for the weekend and see what i think!
Cheers again, and if i have anything i hope you don’t mind if i PM you!
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Dec 14, 2017 at 17:59 #1331984
And good luck (not that there is such a thing).value is everythingDec 14, 2017 at 19:04 #1331991
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Ginge, if a stable is going through a lean spell for about 2 or 3 weeks and they are like 0 for 25 in that span, does Timeform consider this? I mean no matter how good the horse is, do you get any comments from them suggesting to be cautious about the stable form?Dec 14, 2017 at 19:07 #1331992
they show an icicle symbol next to the trainers name to warn you(in their racecards)Dec 14, 2017 at 19:10 #1331994
- Total Posts 1031
And what do they show during the summer months?Dec 14, 2017 at 19:11 #1331995
a bigger oneDec 14, 2017 at 19:40 #1331997
Spot on nwalton. Although “trainer form” is something I prefer to do my own workings out for. Organisations tend to work to an exact time span. I find it’s sometimes best to have a shorter timespan. eg If a trainer has had only two winners and two placed in the last few weeks it doesn’t look good at all. But if both wins and both placed efforts came in the last few days – all at good or reasonable prices – gives a better impression and that the stable are probably back in form. With my trainer form trainers tend to be what I call “in form” sooner and for less time and I sometimes rate a trainer as being in poor form far sooner than Timeform and/or other organisations.
I have 10 symbols and to my mind being in or out of form is a matter of degrees. Four symbols *** (best, although rarely seen), **, * and */ are all in form, then there’s //, /’ average and probably average, then /, -/, X/ and X (worst) varied degrees of below form… Where as Timeform have just the one symbol for both in and out of form.value is everythingDec 14, 2017 at 21:03 #1332006
- Total Posts 484
Timeform Top Rated:
155 7. SUMMERVILLE BOY Tom George Noel Fehily
142p 4. LALOR Richard Woollacott Davy Russell
138p 2. WESTERN RYDER Warren Greatrex Richard Johnson
Summerville Boy really upped his game when runner-up in a Grade 2 contest here last month and should have more in the locker after only a couple of starts over timber. He is taken to land what looks a competitive affair. Lalor and Western Ryder head the list of dangers.
12.45 Horse Comes First Novices’ Chase (2) 3m1f56y
Timeform Top Rated:
164 3. SIZING TENNESSEE Colin Tizzard B. J. Cooper
156 2. DUEL AT DAWN Alex Hales Kielan Woods
154+ 4. TINTERN THEATRE Nigel Twiston-Davies Tom Bellamy
Duel At Dawn is a very likeable type, and though these are the stiffest fences he has encountered, he’s made a good start to his chasing career and looks sure to win more races. Jumping concerns certainly surround Sizing Tennessee at present but he is probably the most talented of these.
It will be interesting to see how these go tomorrow. Summerville Boy is 13lb ahead which should make it the days banker. Let’s see.Jan 13, 2018 at 21:31 #1337391
Looking at the Dan Moore handicap over 2 miles tomorrow at fairyhouse and in the timeform appraisal they give Cause of Causes 3 stars? If they reckon that a horse who has come second in the grand national and first in the 4 miler at Cheltenham is worthy of a 3 star rating in a 2 mile chase then I’d love to hear the reasons whyJan 13, 2018 at 23:07 #1337397
Where has C of C got 3 stars?value is everythingJan 13, 2018 at 23:44 #1337400
Not sure how to attach an image from my gallery, maybe it can’t be done here.Jan 14, 2018 at 00:44 #1337402
Where has C of C got 3 stars, TWM?
Can’t see it anywhere.value is everythingJan 14, 2018 at 08:25 #1337414
i am not 100% but think the wexfordman is talking about timeform on the RUK/ATR sites.Jan 14, 2018 at 10:06 #1337423
Yes, your correct, ATR site, I tried to post a link but I made a mess of that
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