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GC I wasn’t aware of that quote(poor research). I must say that it would have made no difference whatsoever to my evaluation had I seen it. Very often trainers are wrong about the requirements of the horses they place. However, I can accept that he thought he should try the trip, last year he thought precisely the same thing (fast enough for the Supreme Novices but that 21 was an ideal trip). Significantly, in my view, he didn’t run in it. If he ran it over 3m he could have a good horse on his hands, furthermore, I am not 100% convinced that he even likes Chasers.
Carvillshill well done on your selection I hope you got some fives.
Would you like to have seen Tidal Bay tried over 3m as well earlier in the season, rather than be set three consecutive 2m4f-2m5f assignments? There was enough time to try this 2m experiment, but I can’t imagine we’ll see him gain before Cheltenham now, and there are easier races in which to find out whether a horse stays 3m than the SunAlliance…
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
gc,
We obviously look at a horse, a trainer and its races in different ways. The lack of a run over 3m would not preclude its inclusion into my analysis for a 3m race at Cheltenham in the Sun Alliance or any 3m race at any racecourse.
Howard-Johnson, in the very same article, acknowledged that TB’s jumping was "novicey" and that he "needed practice".
In my opinion, which would not stand up in a court of law, Tidal Bay ran today over the wrong trip. I did not include the quotes he made in my pre race thoughts so that will prevent me from including them, as a further negative compounded by the trip today , in this discussion.
Good post Grays.
Those that say Tidal Bay is now no good because of today’s defeat are way off the mark imo.
Chelt is a very diff kettle of fish.
As there is a choice between 2m & 3m for novices at Chelt I would probably opt for the R & SAlliance at this stage.
However, simply put: Noland V Tidal Bay in the Arkle…
TIDAL BAY WINS. (and prob the race to boot!)
Noland has it all to prove and Tidal Bay, though a bit sticky at his jumping looks more powerful and speedy. I think he will jumpy brilliantly in a fast paced race.
Zip
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Imo, he ran over 2m today to see if he could jump at speed – the horse showed he can’t.
It won’t have done him any harm educationaly, but I’d doubt he’d even run in the Arkle, let alone get round.Good post Grays.
Those that say Tidal Bay is now no good because of today’s defeat are way off the mark imo.
Chelt is a very diff kettle of fish.
As there is a choice between 2m & 3m for novices at Chelt I would probably opt for the R & SAlliance at this stage.
However, simply put: Noland V Tidal Bay in the Arkle…
TIDAL BAY WINS. (and prob the race to boot!)
Noland has it all to prove and Tidal Bay, though a bit sticky at his jumping looks more powerful and speedy. I think he will jumpy brilliantly in a fast paced race.
Zip
I think you are a bit over the top with regards to Noland I know which I would rather be on if they had been jumping the last 3 at Donnie yesterday and I am damn sure Tidal Bay wouldn’t have been 1/4 had Noland been in the race.
That aside we are talking about a horse who wins more times thatn he gets beaten and he is obviously more than useful.
I am wondering just how much he was hating the ground yesterday and how much it had to do with the bluders he made. Certainly would have helped.
As far as the trip is concerned he would have to be getting 2 1/2 miles he is going to win the Arkle and that doesn’t concern me. If he happened to put in a clear round at Cheltenham he would obviously still have a big chance. He’s too consitant a performer to be writing off because of one bad run on bad ground.
Think this time the bookies could have it wrong but it’s a big risk backing a novice at Cheltenham who is prone to blunders, but many will as 12/1 is very tempting. Would I back him? probaly not but, I wouldn’t leave him out of my jackpot/placepot if I was doing one that’s for sure
Footenote: I wonder how many of us would be touting Celstial Halo as a good thing for the Triumph if sentry duty hadn’t turned out yesterday, without him in the race he would have been a15 length winner.A sharp reminder of how far off the mark we can be when trying to judge these 4yo hurdlers.
Well, obviously Tidal Bay would not be 1/4 against Noland in a match.
I just feel TB is superior over either trip.
As for Celestial Halo, well, difficult to get excited about.
Sentry Duty was impressive though and was very useful on the flat.
I believe better ground could improve him further?
Zip
Good post Grays.
Those that say Tidal Bay is now no good because of today’s defeat are way off the mark imo.
Chelt is a very diff kettle of fish.
As there is a choice between 2m & 3m for novices at Chelt I would probably opt for the R & SAlliance at this stage.
However, simply put: Noland V Tidal Bay in the Arkle…
TIDAL BAY WINS. (and prob the race to boot!)
Noland has it all to prove and Tidal Bay, though a bit sticky at his jumping looks more powerful and speedy. I think he will jumpy brilliantly in a fast paced race.
Zip
I think you are a bit over the top with regards to Noland I know which I would rather be on if they had been jumping the last 3 at Donnie yesterday and I am damn sure Tidal Bay wouldn’t have been 1/4 had Noland been in the race.
That aside we are talking about a horse who wins more times thatn he gets beaten and he is obviously more than useful.
I am wondering just how much he was hating the ground yesterday and how much it had to do with the bluders he made. Certainly would have helped.
As far as the trip is concerned he would have to be getting 2 1/2 miles he is going to win the Arkle and that doesn’t concern me. If he happened to put in a clear round at Cheltenham he would obviously still have a big chance. He’s too consitant a performer to be writing off because of one bad run on bad ground.
Think this time the bookies could have it wrong but it’s a big risk backing a novice at Cheltenham who is prone to blunders, but many will as 12/1 is very tempting. Would I back him? probaly not but, I wouldn’t leave him out of my jackpot/placepot if I was doing one that’s for sure
Footenote: I wonder how many of us would be touting Celstial Halo as a good thing for the Triumph if sentry duty hadn’t turned out yesterday, without him in the race he would have been a15 length winner.A sharp reminder of how far off the mark we can be when trying to judge these 4yo hurdlers.
He wouldn’t have been 1/4 FOF but looking at Noland’s debut and comparing the two over fences I doubt that Noland would have been upsides jumping the last – he’d be 3 or 4 or so lengths down on Tidal Bay.
Also something mentioned earlier in the thread, it’s not really that fair to compare the prices of Dani California and Tidal Bay in running since the former regularly trades at less than 1.2 in running only to get beat. Not being biased as she’s one of my favourite horses and I’ve been really lookign forward to seeing her over hurdles.
Geez now your just being silly. The Arkle fav couldn’t lie up with him. If John’s horse could in his condition I am damn sure Noland would have had.
Is this the Arkle fav we are talking about or is there some other Noland you’re not telling me about?
I’m with you there Fists.
Think it’s a great shame that we didn’t get to see Noland fulfil his potential over hurdles last season. If we had, his Cheltenham target this year may have been rather different.
Tidal Bay’s novice form is solid – by far the strongest of the Arkle entries.
Albertas Run, Mr Strachan and Duc De Regniere have all won since being comprehensively beaten by him. He’s also defeated a smart performer in Gold Medallist and would have beaten another one on Saturday, Leslingtaylor, had he not made two horrific mistakes.
TBs mistake at the last was due to a combination of factors – he was actually going too well. Ruby should have steadied the horse and just popped him over, instead he allowed the horse to guess at the fence.
His performance was proof that he does have sufficient speed to contest an Arkle. He proved to have far too much speed for a former Swinton Hurdle winner – it would be an incredible error of judgement by his connections to run him in the SunAlliance.
The mistakes he made during the race would have floored most other horses – it’s testament to his athleticism that he stayed on his feet and to show great courage in fighting back – he’s no sulker.
If he is making errors when he is only racing against 1 horse then come Cheltenham when he is surrounded by about 16 other horses he will do well to stay on his feet.
Over rated talking horse. Next please.
If he is making errors when he is only racing against 1 horse then come Cheltenham when he is surrounded by about 16 other horses he will do well to stay on his feet.
Over rated talking horse. Next please.
He’s never finished outside the first two in twelve starts and has competed in champion bumper and novice events at both Cheltenham and Aintree in the process and collected more than £100,000 in prize money despite only making his debut less than two years ago – not bad for an over-rated horse.
He’s by far the most talented novice chaser entered at The Festival.
Think it’s a great shame that we didn’t get to see Noland fulfil his potential over hurdles last season. If we had, his Cheltenham target this year may have been rather different.
Noland was never going over hurdles.. He’d already proved all he needed to.
I thought TB showed he’s got the engine to win an Arkle – I also think Noland has the engine to win an Arkle as well. So far neither of them has shown the quality of jumping to win an arkle. The problem being what is going to beat them? How moon over miami is ahead of TB in the betting is completely beyond me..
He’s by far the most talented novice chaser entered at The Festival.
After he finishes unplaced at the festival you will come to realise that he is in fact not the most talented novice chaser entered at the festival.
There’s a horse called Kauto Star who used to make the odd error he was a novice once too.
I think you could safely say Tidal Bay’s trainer HJ will have plenty more schooling planned between now and Chelteham and he has jumped round there fault free already.
His mistakes on Saturday were his worst to date but that ground wouldn’t be the best jumping ground for a novice. Racing barely made it and the chances were it was quite greasy and the horse wasn’t all that happy on it.
There is nothing to say with more experience under his belt he won’t put in a clear round and even if he did clout one there’s nothing to say it’s going to be at the last.
Right now we have no idea if Noland will even make it to Cheltenham but Tidal Bay is a certainty to run barring accidents. He must be worth the risk at 12/1 as he is without doubt the form horse and if they dosort out his jumping he will take all the beating………Noland doesn’t turn up that 12/1 is going to look even better…….could nearly fall get up and still beat half of them
Think the bookies have got this one wrong. I for one am having a bet on him at that price as I already have Noland at 16/1 and would be a mug not to bet his main danger at such good odds. First thing in the morning I’ll be on the phone and that will be me as far as Cheltenham goes……..neber had so many AP bets in 20 years Maybe Charlie Mann has one of his hats on to win a tent for his summer holidays hence his price A
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