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I have said that he won’t win an Arkle because he’s not fast enough in my opinion to win an Arkle.
That won’t matter at all if he cannot improve his jumping.
The Cheltenham fences are a lot tougher than the ones at Doncaster today and the pace will be a lot quicker too given a stronger field in March.
Hit 2 fences very hard and was lucky to stay on his feet.
I can’t believe he went off at 1/4 Gaz, and that I took 10/3 about the winner
Sometimes, when your travelling at speed (as Tidal Bay would be in the Arkle) your jumping improves – however, on today’s evidence, it certainly has to.
Mike
On the evidence of that race Tidal Bay has 2 chances at Cheltenham.
Slim to none and slims just left town.
Personally couldn’t have had him in the first place to be honest.
That run just confirmed it.
Nice surprise for John Quinn albeit Tidal Bay would have won easily.
Amazing we now have a 6/1 Fav in Noland who has won a very bad race in his only outing over fences. Despite having backed him at long odds there must be better value in the race as he is no certainty to run…….I thought the Irish horse Thyne Again looked very useful last weekend but they have reservations about whether he is good enough. I wouldn’t be too quick to right off Tidal Bay if he sorted his jumping out….nothing else stands out…..John Quinn’s should improve but shock results in these type of races are very seldom upheld when it come to a full field going full belt in the real thing
The Irish novice chase division is very poor this year. Even at this late stage, something like Afsoun could go chasing and win the Arkle!
Surprised they never went chasing with him sooner and with 6 weeks to go I can’t see them even thinking in that way now. Definately was a weak reace in Ireland just thought he looked half decent. I wouldn’t bet anything else beecause if Noland does run I couldn’t see him not winning against what is beginning to look like a moderate bunch for an Arkle.
No doubt one or two will turn in a good performances before the race and it will end up a good race but right now I’m damned if I can see anything that fits the bill.
Like the two Mullins mares if they come over for Cheltenham – particularly J’y Vole though given her success last year they may keep her for Auteuil.
Was at Aintree in October and when he beat Alberts Run he looked more like a 2m4f plus horse rarther than a 2m horse.
Would be better bypassing the festival and going to Aintree again for the 3m1f novice chase as that would suit him a lot more.
Tidal Bay would have won had he not clouted the final fence.
Ruby and good horses clouting final fences… hmmm ? Seems a recurring theme.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Tidal Bay would have won had he not clouted the final fence.
Ruby and good horses clouting final fences… hmmm ? Seems a recurring theme.
Shhhhhhhhh!!!! you’ll be giving me nightmares
It could be worth remembering that Tiday Bay was entered to run last saturday and the saturday before but was pulled out at the declaration stage each time as obviously they didnt want him on the ground. It is hard to keep a horse at his peak for such a long period, especially at the top level, which may explain why he didnt look anywhere near as good as last time.
I wouldnt be worried about todays performance at all, I already have noland backed for the arkle, but I reckon that another bet on Tidal Bay should be the arkle fully covered as it looks to stand at present.
It could also be worth remembering that gencove marina is out and that noland hasnt taken his last race overly well, with his not eating up problem, and his next prep race should be more testing on him…
…12-1 Tidal Bay?
When you put it all into perspective there could be some value there, especially when it doesnt look to be the strongest of races this year (I will be watching for any strong Irish challengers as this is the sort of race they will be targeting for a shock winner)
The trainer beat Tidal Bay, Its last six runs have been over a minimum of 20f It was second over 21f at Cheltenham when a novice hurdler, It has won 4 of its last six races. You tell me why the bugger was dropped to 2m? No wonder the horse jumped poorly, he needs a bit more time at his fences. Thank goodness he came back in one piece.
TRB, I think Howard Johnson said after Tidal Bay’s last win that he would not be frightened to drop the gelding back down to 2m around a big course with an end-to-end gallop, and as such I saw today’s race as part of the whole fact-finding mission with him.
Donny’s a big, galloping enough track to have met one criterion, but not only was the pace not searching enough today, Tidal Bay had to do what he hadn’t in any of his previous racecourse starts and cut out the early running himself.
As such, Howard Johnson would have learned far less about the suitability of the Arkle trip for Tidal Bay today than he would have hoped, but by the same token I don’t think that it would constitute enough for the gelding to take a huge walk in the market for that race either – to all intents and purposes, he remains untried over a strongly-run, galloping 2m.
Bulwark’s point about Tidal Bay having been ready for, but deprived of, a race for the last fortnight is also worth bearing in mind, I reckon.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
In a thread where Mounty was waxing lyrical about TB some time ago I said I’s be opposing him at the Festival. I made money oppposing him today (see Lays and Plays) and I’ll be taking him on again whatever race he runs in in March- he just doesn’t jump well enough for a Championship race.
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