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Tidal Bay – Will the Cheltenham jinx continue?

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  • #7353
    Avatar photoBosranic
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    • Total Posts 1982

    Without question, one of the most exciting novice chasers for many years. He beat a solid Arkle field in the style of a top quality horse, slamming Kruguyrova by 13L.

    However, after witnessing the defeats of other Cheltenham winners, the question is will Tidal Bay continue the trend, or put up another scintillating performance?

    He has his own unique way of jumping, but as I said after his defeat to Leslingtaylor, he’s a phenomenal athlete who always seems to find a leg.

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see him lose on Saturday after his Cheltenham exertions, but he’s uber-talented and very tough – Kruguyrova seems excellent ew value.

    #155905
    Anonymous
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    • Total Posts 17716

    Yes.

    #155921
    Avatar photoroland
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    • Total Posts 302

    you mean the jinx that 4 from 6 races on both days were won by cheltenham runners.

    in all seriousness i’m sure Howard J might be kicking himself he didnt run tidal bay in the melling chase as things have turned out, as 2 miles might just turn out to be too sharp now. i’d be very impressed if he was up to this task and kruguyrova’s 121212 profile now suggests shes due hers!

    #155928
    Fist of Fury 2k8
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    • Total Posts 2930

    No

    #155976
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 170

    I think HJ will be gutted he didn’t run him today against the big boys.

    I must admit I thought it was a very poor Arkle this year – but that TB did it very well and he could be a decent horse. Think he could be vulneable over 2 miles on a flat track tomorrow – but if he jumps as well as he did at Cheltenham I still think he will have too much for them.

    If he gets 3 miles (i think he will and can only assume they will campaign him over 2 1/2 and 3 miles next year) it could be yet another mouth watering campaign next year.

    The big race could just be the KG where Tidal Bay, VPU, and Kauto clash (as I guess Denman will still head to the Lexus). Of course, I am getting WAY ahead of myself – but hey – in 6 months the flat season will almost be over…..

    #155984
    carvillshill
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    I think he might get turned over tomorrow too. Tomorrow’s test will be similar to Doncaster, where he made 2 serious errors. I too think Kruguyrova is the each-way poke on a track that favours speed and front-running. I worry how much we’re helping TDK and others viewing these pages however….

    #155988
    Friggo
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    • Total Posts 1593

    Funnily enough I see it the same way as most, even though I’m a big Tidal Bay fan- the sharp track won’t suit him and he made a good number of mistakes last time he was here (albeit on his chasing debut), whilst Kruguyrova is at worst an each-way steal given the way prominent horses have fared this week so far.

    We can’t all be right, can we?

    #155990
    carvillshill
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    There is hope, FOF fancies yet another shortie!

    #155992
    Bulwark
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    • Total Posts 3119

    For me Tidal Bays win at cheltenham was good, but with Noland failing to live up to the hype, he won like he should have done IMO. I will be on the Nicholls horse TAKEROC who has reportedly come on leaps and bounds since joining Nicholls this season, he brings him to meet Tidal Bay, with a good record at stake and knowing what he’s up against.

    The good ground could bring improvement from a few and Perce Rock and Modicum would be my e/ws.

    Could be way off, but that is just my thoughts on it.

    #156100
    MCFC Stan
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    • Total Posts 377

    I think he’ll lose, but not because of any Cheltenham jinx but because 2m round Aintree will not be a stiff enough test for him. He won the Arkle because he over powered and outstayed the opposition and though the run from the 3rd last is quite a test, others may still have his measure, especially if they don’t go hell for leather like they have done in most of the races this week.

    #156105
    Avatar photoyeats
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    What’s the Cheltenham jinx?

    #156125
    Bulwark
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    • Total Posts 3119

    For me Tidal Bays win at cheltenham was good, but with Noland failing to live up to the hype, he won like he should have done IMO. I will be on the Nicholls horse TAKEROC who has reportedly come on leaps and bounds since joining Nicholls this season, he brings him to meet Tidal Bay, with a good record at stake and knowing what he’s up against.

    The good ground could bring improvement from a few and Perce Rock and Modicum would be my e/ws.

    Could be way off, but that is just my thoughts on it.

    That Takeroc is being really heavily supported, I was expecting to be about 7/2, looks like he’ll go off favorite, with Tidal Bay second Fav. Not really a fan of backing them thatshort, so will do a few low stakes doubles on him with afsoun and my way de solzen in the following race on the card.

    #156217
    batman
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    i thought for a while he wouldnt win but thank god he did and he did it well in the end

    #156276
    Avatar photoBosranic
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    • Total Posts 1982

    I know I’ve been going on and on about this horse since his Cheltenham victory back in December, but this big lad could be something very, very special.

    The way he travels during a race and powers clear at the end is just beautiful to watch. He’s jumped with a lot more confidence in his last two starts and the credit for this should go to Denis O’Regan. His ride on Tidal Bay at Cheltenham was sadly overlooked, but it was a ride that most jockeys could learn something from. TB was far from fluent during the early stages of the Arkle, but Denis kicked him into just about every fence from the fifth, it was as if he was saying ‘I know you can do this, stop f****** about!’ Most jockeys would have ridden the horse, who’s jumping was suspect, with a degree of caution, but Denis taught him a lesson that day and the horse has benefited from it immensely.

    Many Cheltenham winners have been beaten this week. The proximity of the respective Cheltenham and Aintree meetings is just too much for some horses and those who are battle hardened can’t cope with the vastly different tracks. By winning in such impressive fashion, this horse has demonstrated just how good he is and, equally as important, how tough he is.

    People have questioned his awkward head carriage in previous races – it’s often a sign of suspect temperament, but after his defeat to Leslingtaylor I wasn’t convinced. He belted two fences that would have brought down even the most seasoned performer. Not only did he stay on his feet, he battled back in the style of a horse that’s very genuine.

    His awkward head carriage and the the way he wandered around once he hit the front today indicates that there’s possibly more psychological improvement to come – he’s still a big baby.

    His jumping is reminiscent of a young Kauto Star. He has his own way of negotiating his obstacles, but I guarantee you he’ll always find a leg – he’s such a good athlete. His ability to win two top class races in quick succession aroung two very different tracks is an indication of just how good he is and how great he could become.

    He’ll get three miles, no problem. The Gold Cup could be a bit too far for a horse who has such an abundance of speed, but Kauto Star’s Gold Cup triumph was proof that this should not necessarily be the case.

    This horse gives NH enthusiasts something to really look forward to through the Summer. Expect him to be entered in top class events between 2 – 3 miles as connections try to find his best trip. Who knows, he could emulate Kauto Star’s brilliant Gold Cup winning campaign.

    Tidal Bay is the only novice to emerge this season who could beat the big boys next season.

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