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Don’t get me wrong, I think Harchibald should, and probably will, win his respective race. At least I hope he does.
But I am absolutely staggered, that out of the three (KS, Denman & Harchibald), some of you think that Harchibald is the ‘bigger certainty’.
How can you rate Harchibal more likely a winner than KS? Harchibald is a horse that has more 2 & 3’s in his form line than he does 1’s. He has a reputation (rightly or wrongly) for not going through with his effort. The race could be a 5 or 6 runner affair with a slow pace (which I wouldn’t have thought will suit) etc etc.
Kauto Star on the other hand is a horse who does win, and often wins with a lot of authority in the highest possible grade. Conditions should be absolutely perfect for him – he has the form in the bag and the beating of all his rivals. I just don’t see any chinks in his armour for this race, whereas Harchibald sill has questions to answer in my opinion.
Like I say, I think Harchibald will win and I think KS will win, but I’m just surprised that some think Harchibald is the bigger certainty of the "certainties" – that’s not to say I am disrespecting anyone’s opinions in any way.
Incidentally, if I were pricing up the three "certainties" in a book that said, "Out of the three, if any were to lose, which horse is it most likely to be", then I would go;
8/11 Harchibald
2/1 Kauto Star
5/2 DenmanAny takers
Mike
- Total Posts 17716
MM
As the only one who isn’t proven in the circumstances he faces, I’ll take all the 5/2 Denman you’ll lay.
anything wrong with Kauto or Denman ?
apparently Ladbrookes have been offering evens on Kauto today and the Betfair xmas double market of Kauto+Denman has been suspended
MM
As the only one who isn’t proven in the circumstances he faces, I’ll take all the 5/2 Denman you’ll lay.
No probs, how much do you want on?
Out of the three, I think he faces the easier task, though I know where your coming from regarding conditions. Consider your bet struck
.Mike
What absolutely amazes me is out of the three Kauto is the best price at the moment.
He is apparently in the best condition of his life.
if Exotic Dancer wins the way Jonjo’s are running it would be near on a miracle.
The Pipes have sprung more than a few surprises in there time. This would be the biggest of all time if Old Vic won. However I do think he is the one the bookies are hoping for.
MWDS wouldn’t blow wind up Kauto’s ass I am surprised they have even bothered leaving him in.
Taranis is there for one reason only to ensure Kauto has a lead into the home straight he should be a 50/1 shot.
This to me looks an absolute cake walk for Kauto and unless he blunders his way to disaster I can’t see any danger to him.
Without exaggeration I think he’s the bet of the year and should be 4/11
Harchibald could do with a few more runners as if the pace is very slow it could could see him beaten. However, don’t forget he has won more than a few races like this in his time……he is easy to settle and that’s a big plus…….his price is about right.
Denman could have the most difficult task of the three he has no choice but set of in front. To be honest I haven’t looked at the ground in Ireland but if it comes up heavy don’t think for one minute it will be anything like the ground he encountered at Newbury in the Hennessy. The ground was very slurpy, according to the jockeys, and very easy to go through as it was raining at the time…….if it is Irish heavy it’s like a bog and anything could happen….more experienced horses than him have been found wanting in Ireland when the ground is really bad and they will race on anything over there…….I think he could be the joker in the pack and wouldn’t be counting my cash if the other 2 win until he’s over the last and well clear.
I would make him a 4/6 shot if the ground is bad.
The Pipes have sprung more than a few surprises in there time. This would be the biggest of all time if Old Vic won.
Wouldn’t it just! From a trend analysis point of view the horse has plenty to surmount, not least the failure of any seasonal debutant to land the prize for over 20 years now. Further, since Edredon Bleu’s 2003 win, horses aged nine or over have had a thin time of it in the race, and it strikes me ever more as one best left to six and seven year-olds, albeit those with the requisite levels of runs and wins in similar / same race conditions.
Exotic Dancer as a place lay is where I’m heading in this race, plus Racing Demon to beat My Way De Solzen and / or Taranis in a match bet.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Im just a couple of miles from Kempton and it tipped down through the night and up to mid afternoon. As well as it drains there, its bound to be softish…surely
If there is to be a suprise in these three races, it must come from MWDS i believe. Hes such a tidy jumper that those three quick fences in the straight could be to his advantage
The Pipes have sprung more than a few surprises in there time. This would be the biggest of all time if Old Vic won.
… understatement of the century, I’d say!
you’re not chuffing kidding.
On a serious note i’m sitting on a £20 e/w (1/4 ods 1,2,3) bet on Our Vic at 50/1 that i placed a month ago at SportingBet. Placed a same size bet on Afsoun for the champion hurdle at the same time (25/1), so evidently my crystal ball was getting interference problems at the time.
I’m going to sit on the Our Vic bet unless he goes below 10’s but am about to supplement it with a sizable lump on kauto star at 5/6 with laddies. I’ll be crossing my fingers for the first bet but i really can’t see him beating the favourite and i have him as 8/11 on my tissue. Theres no way i can see him going off bigger.
I basically have RD and MWDS as doubtful stayers and are far too short at the moment for what they’ve done but may nibble at ED if i can get better than 17/2, which i doubt i will.
If jonjo’s horses are under weather, it’s hard yo see any of the others lowering the Kauto colors and if a clear round is in the offing it’s ll over
So why is Kauto so big, have the layers had a tad to much sherry ???
As good as Kauto Star is i think hes always one fence away from taking a bad fall and hes probably worth a small lay(infact i was going to wait till january to start my part time career on Betfair but ill have a go tomorrow!!!!)
He actually jumped better for Sam Thomas at Aintree.
So im going to LAY Kauto Star (£25)
My idea of the winner would be My Way De Solzen.
Denman looks like a steering job and again i love watching Harchibald but you couldnt bet with any confidence.
- Total Posts 17716
Im just a couple of miles from Kempton and it tipped down through the night and up to mid afternoon. As well as it drains there, its bound to be softish…surely
Turftrax report the going as g/s, sft in a couple of places.
Going stick reading on the chase course is 5.2, hdls 5.0; readings at 1.30 pm, 25th Dec.http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing … j-has.html
I have one reservation about Kauto Star – mentioned previously – but that is about his stamina, not his ability, and his stamina is unlikely to be tested severely in a small field, on a flat track, at a bare three miles and with the ground only just on the soft side of good. The second and third from 12 months ago, Exotic Dancer and Racing Demon, will do well to get closer under such circumstances.
Agree with Mr Rowlands statement above also. This race should play into Kauto’s hands, so why are the enemy offering what look generous odds on one of the best chasers in recent times???
Yours sincerely
Confused
Whilst the old saying ‘the only thing about certainties are that there are’nt any,never have been or never will’ always applies I think that owners Paul Beck and Freddie Flintoff will be collecting today with Naxox at Wincanton.
Sluiced in the other day and out again with a low weight before the handicapper can take a look.Love to get the tissue price of evens thats inthe RP.
My view;
Kauto Star-wins bar a fall. MWDS wins if KS DNF.
Denman-wins if he travels over OK.
Harchibald-wins unless Straw Bear has a going day AND Carberry messes up delivering the challenge.
Best Bet
Kauto Star/MWDS forecast.
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