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I’m no expert on French form but if the French horses can give
Un De Sceaux
8 lbs tomorrow I’ll be surprised. Gemix and Lord Prestige look the main dangers, particularly the latter who beat Gemix well last time out. However, if, like me, you viewed Un De Sceaux as a Champion Hurdle contender then he is a definite bet tomorrow in receipt of over half a stone from those two horses. The only thing preventing me from having a proper cut at him is my limited French racing knowledge.
Prix Hypothese
Un De Sceaux
€25 win @ 4/5 (PP)I hope he wins but having seemingly made a complete mess of things regarding the Champion Hurdle this seems a strange race to pick in order to progress the horse. You would have thought a step up in class might have coincided with two miles on home territory. This is something of a step into the unknown and I wouldn’t be interested in the short odds with our bookmakers.
Very surprised
Activial
can be backed at 11/2, thought he’d be 4/1 or less, so I’ve taken Bet 365’s generous price. Dangers aplenty with Calipto and Guitar Pete representing the Triumph Hurdle form but I think byassing Cheltenham with Activial can pay dividends for Harry Fry.
Aintree 2.00
Activial
€15 e/w @ 11/2 (B365)Western Warhorse is favourite for the 2m 4f Novice Chase after beating Champagne Fever in the Arkle at Cheltenham (no matter how many times I watch that race I still think Champagne Fever wins from the last!). I think there’s a chance this horse will be underestimated after that shock win. In my opinion it’s possible he needs a particular set of conditions to show that sort of performance: two miles, good ground and a strong gallop. He won’t get those conditions tomorrow so I’m going to take him on with Oscar Whisky. I was against
Oscar Whisky
at Cheltenham but as it happened he fell at the first so who knows if I would have been right or wrong. He has a tremendous record at Aintree and at 5/2 he’s well worth a punt.
Aintree 4.50
Oscar Whisky
€20 win @ 5/2 (B365)I was keen on
Jetson
at Cheltenham and he ran well to place behind Fingal Bay. He runs off just a pound higher here. Last year he was second in this race off a mark of 140 to handicap blot Battle Group. He’s off 145 tomorrow but Paddy Kennedy claims five off his back so he must have every chance. I think Bet Victor have taken a bit of a chance putting him in at 10/1 – I’ll have some of that.
Aintree 5.25
Jetson
€10 e/w @ 10/1 (BV)I thought it was very likely I’d be putting up First Lieutenant for the Bowl but I had hoped for a better price than 3/1. I’ll put it this way, he was a better price last year in a weaker race and on better ground. At the current prices I prefer
Dynaste
at 2/1. I was happy to take him on with Benefficient (who unfortunately suffered a career ending injury) at Cheltenham but I’m not as keen to go against him here. He absolutely skipped around Aintree last year winning the Grade 1 three mile novice chase as he liked. I think three miles suits him better than two and a half and he’s better value at 2/1 than Silvininiaco Conti (9/4) or First Lieutenant (3/1) in my opinion.
Aintree 2.30
Dynaste
€20 win @ 2/1 (PP)Balance was
+ €416.96I think
Guitar Pete
is overpriced now that he’s drifted to 8/1. He looks the most solid of all the runners even if he lacks the potential star quality of some of the others.
Aintree 2.00
Guitar Pete
€10 e/w @ 8/1 (BV)+ €396.96
Doubling
The New One
with
Mossey Joe
. I think The New One is head and shoulders above these and even a repeat of his huge run as a novice last season should be good enough. I have reservations about Mossey Joe over these fences as he’s been known to plough a fence in the past but if he stands up he should win. Double pays 11/4.
Aintree 3.05 – The New One 4/11
Aintree 3.40 – Mossey Joe 7/4
€20 win double (PP)+ €376.96
Clonmel 5.20
Vaxalco
€10 e/w @ 11/2 (B365)Guitar Pete returned €120 so p/l now:
+ €456.96
Still have Arnaud, Oscar Whisky, Jetson and Vaxalco to run.
Thankfully Jetson puts the wheels back on the wagon with a place at 14/1 after chronic efforts from Arnaud and Vaxalco in particular. Having had an 8/1 winner and a 14/1 placed it’s a shame I’ve only had a break even day but Oscar Whisky and Dynaste went close so I’ve no real complaints.
+ €501.96
I like the two Donald McCain trained horses in the 2m 4f handicap hurdle tomorrow.
Stonebrook
has had a very productive time of things since being hammered in a bumper by Faugheen and a rating of 131 doesn’t over estimate his ability. He finds plenty for pressure and travels well, I find it hard to see him not involved in the shake up here.
Clondaw Kaempfer
ran a decent race in the Coral Cup, just weakening from before the last to be beaten 13 lengths. He had previously placed in a handicap hurdle at this track. If less use is made of him here than at Cheltenham I think he can get involved.
Aintree 4.50
Stonebrook €10 e/w @ 13/2 (BV)
Clondaw Kaempfer €7.50 e/w @ 16/1 (BV)+ €466.96
Aintree 2.00 (without Josses Hill & Sgt Reckless)
The Game Changer
€15 e/w & 15/2 (B365)+ €436.96
Aintree 2.00
The Game Changer
€5 e/w @ 22/1 (B365)Aintree 2.30
Holywell
€20 win @ 7/2 (BV)+ €406.96
Backed Ma Filleule just at the off there, they’d gone off before I could get it on here but I said it to VTC on Facebook after they jumped a fence so he can back me up! Not usually my style to have a win only bet on 9/1 shot in a 30 runner handicap chase but as VTC said I was on a bit of a roll and fancied her to give me a good run for my money given the Holywell form. I can try upload a picture from my B365 a/c if there’s any doubters but the stake was €8.75 which was the odd amount of money in the a/c!
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