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Had a nice couple of days in Dublin, lost money on Tuesday but got it back yesterday with regulars Last Instalment and Voler La Vedette.
Hidden Cyclone is taken to beat Shot From The Hip in the beginners chase. Shot From The Hip has looked very good at times but more times than not he’s failed to live up to the hype. Hidden Cyclone has been looked after carefully by Shark Hanlon and has a big future over fences imo.
Hidden Cyclone €20 win @ Evens
Oilily was very exciting last season and was probably over the top at Punchestown. She’ll find this easier than the Galway Hurdle, and she’ll surely be involved in the finish.
Oilily €10 e/w @ 10/1
Thousand Stars is the NAP of the day for me. He was ultra impressive last time out and looks rock solid today. The improvement he’s shown even in the last year has been phenomenal. Should be 4/7 in my book.
Thousand Stars €50 win @ 11/10
The Midnight Club is another I’ve always liked. Nationals will be in his sights later in the year and this looks a nice opportunity for him today. He goes well on good ground and let’t not forget he ran none other than Weapons Amnesty close in the Albert Bartlett
The Midnight Club €10 e/w @ 12/1
I’ve also had a €0.50 win yankee on the 4.
Just did some figures for the thread so far:
Out of 61 bets, 26 have yielded a profit, which equates as 42.6%.
I’ve placed €1,161, yielding a current profit of €499.92 (€125 also placed on ante post Cheltenham Festival bets, which I have not included for the purpose of this). That’s a profit of 43.1%.
Never totted up percentages form last year’s thread, could be something to do when I get an hour or two
Impressive percentages THM.
Keep it up.
Value Is EverythingThose percentages took a fair whack this week Ginger
Haven’t done the figures yet but I’d say there’s a little over a hundred euro lost as well as ante post Cheltenham bets taking a knock!
Your percentages THM, are good enough to withstand an inevitable losing run. Everyone has them.
I had a mixed end of year too with my ante-post bets. I don’t think we should give up on Peddlers Cross yet. It just wasn’t him. May be a sharp right handed track does not suit.
Even when my Ante-post horses do win, they win too well. Good prices about Grands Crus for the RSA, and now the owner wants to go for the Gold Cup.
I have 14/1 about Fingal Bay for the Albert Bartlett, I just bet he wins so well tomorrow they’ll go for the Neptunes!Value Is EverythingFingal Bay could well go down the Neptune route if he wins as easy as his odds suggest, but I fancy Top Of The Range to give him a real race. The horse he beat last time out, Ballyboker Boy, is one that went down in my notebook after hacking up in a winners of one at Ballingarry. I do think Fingal Bay will win, but there won’t be much in it I’d say.
In the novice chase I think Minella Class is way overpriced @ 13/2. His form over hurdles is very smart and he made a nice introduction to the chasing game last time against Peddlers Cross. If I was pricing the race up, Minella Class is the horse I’d have second favorite with For Non Stop a 5/1 shot.
€10 e/w Minella Class @ 13/2
Mikael D’Haguenet has been less than convincing lately and faces a highly talented opponent in Western Leader tomorrow. Western Leader hasn’t ran since in the process of hacking up at Aintree a couple of years ago before breaking down. They say they never come back but I think this fella’s worth backing tomorrow. He’s in receipt of over a stone if taking Brian Hayes allowance into account. If he’s ready, he’ll win this in my opinion.
€10 win Western Leader @ 4/1
These fallers are starting to pi$h me off to be honest
Was too early to say what would have happened but he looked to about to inject some real pace. Good to see he’s up alright.
I’ve somehow convinced myself that Forpady can actually win this
The way races are run in Ireland (slow gallop, sprint finish), plain and simply does not suit the horse. He’s a galloper, he doesn’t have a turn of foot. The three races over fences in England, where he’s got good ground and a fast pace, are the a 2-mile chase at Cheltenham in November 2010, the Arkle and the Champion Chase. He won the Arkle and ran a cracker to be second in the Champion Chase. In November 2010, he got involved in a duel from a long way out with Tataniano, and he fought him off. There was absolutely nothing ungenuine about the way he put Tataniano away, but he was left exhausted and a sitting duck for the fast finishing Gauvain.
Admittedly, he always finds a way to lose a race, but maybe someday, he’ll put his head infront again. I’m either brave or stupid enough to put an each way bet on him at 12/1.
€5 e/w Forpadydeplasterer @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes 1-2-3 1/5)
€10 win Our Girl Salley @ 5/2
€5 e/w Dylan Ross Supreme Novices @ 25/1
€10 e/w Sir Des Champs Jewson @ 12/1Will give reasons later, short of time now!
Our Girl Salley has some high class form here in Ireland, and has won many races in the mares division in recent years. She handles soft ground and I think the step up in trip will suit her. She was being seriously considered for the Neptune last year and has improved with every run this season. She was a comfortable winner last time and a similar performance will see her go close.
Dylan Ross reminds me a lot of Go Native. He lacks a real change of gear on soft ground, and what he needs is a strongly run race to bring the best out of him. He’ll get plenty of cover in the Supreme and will more than likely be delivered as late as possible. He’ll probably be the last one of the bridle and I think he’s a great each way bet. Today he’s favourite but it wouldn’t surprise me if he was beaten again, although he has the blinkers on now. I’d like to see him win obviously, because he’s then surely go to Chelteham, but if he’s beaten into second again it won’t be the end of the world.
I can’t stress enough how highly I rate Sir Des Champs. The ability he showed to win the Martin Pipe handicap at the festival last year was phenomenal. I was considering backing him at 16s a while ago but thought the RSA might be his target. However, if the market is anything to go by, the Jewson is his aim so now is the time to get involved. Not one of the five favourites has this race as their aim so when the bookies cop on he’ll be half the price.
Have also just backed First Lieutenant for the RSA. I think this race is between him, Last Instalment and Bobs Worth. I thought Bobs Worth was value after the Feltham when he was 12/1, but at 9/2 now I wouldn’t touch him. Last Instalment will be harder to beat imo, and he sluiced up at Leopardstown. I have doubts about whther Davy will jump ship from First Lieutenant though and that alone will see him go off single figures imo.
First Lieutenant €10 e/w @ 20/1 RSA (Ladbrokes)
Finally getting my wish for Zaarito to run in the Pierse. This fella has been so unlucky in the past but back over timber I think he can make a big impact. Took the 33/1 with Boylesports this morning and I see now that Ladbrokes are the only firm still going this price.
€5 e/w Zaarito @ 33/1
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