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Have a €20 Freebet with Paddy Power, put it on Minsk @ 11/2 for the Triumph.
Missed the boat with a couple of horses I fancy for Cheltenham lately. MONKSLAND will play a big part in the Neptune but has been snipped in price during the week. He’s as short as 7/1 now but a local bookmakers still has him priced at 12s, if that price is still available in the morning I’ll be investing.
MOUNT BENBULBEN has also shortened in the past couple of days. He was 12/1 not long ago but is generally 8/1 now. At this stage I think I’ll wait until NRNB before a bet. He’s the main danger to my SEA OF THUNDER in the Albert Bartlett.
My big handicap fancy for the week is MOON DICE. He was 20/1 at the start of the week but is 14/1 generally now. He was desperately unlucky in the Greatwood and with any sort of luck in running he’ll win the County Hurdle. I’m a bit sour about missing the bigger price but he won’t be 14/1 come the day, he’ll be in single figures and most likely favorite imo.
€10 e/w Moon Dice @ 14/1 County Hurdle (Paddy Power)
I feel MINELLA CLASS would have beaten Cue Card and For Non Stop last time out, was tanking when he fell. The Paul Nicholls-trained Crystal Bonus is favorite tomorrow but Minella Class’s form has far more substance and I’m surprised he’s not shorter than 9/4. As a backer of Sir Des Champs for the Jewson this is the horse I fear most.
€20 win Minella Class @ 9/4
Big market moves every day, exciting times.
Cheltenham Ante-Post:
SUPREME: Dylan Ross, €5 e/w @ 25/1 (Boylesports shop)
Big price on Betfair recently so hopefully that doesn’t mean he’ll be bypassing the festival. If he lines up there’s no other horse I’d rather be on as he’ll travel into the race better than anything else. For this reason alone I can’t have him out of the frame if he runs.
ARKLE: Peddlers Cross, €20 win @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes online)
Sprinter Sacre is going to be hard to beat, he looks a real superstar. The main dangers to the favorite are Peddlers Cross and Bog Warrior imo, but he could well stay at home for the Powers Gold Cup. Happy with the price on this one but think I’ll have to have a saver on Sprinter Sacre on the day.
NEPTUNE: Mount Benbulben, €5 win @ 20/1 (Paddy Power online)
Looks like a NR, going for the Albert Bartlett. Not much harm done though.
RSA: First Lieutenant, €10 e/w @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes online)
Very happy with this bet. Grands Crus has looked good but I think Bobs Worth has a great chance of reversing the form with that one. First Lieutenant will eat the hill and has been aimed at this all year. Few rumours around that Sir Des Champs may run here and First Lieutenant in the Jewson, but hopefully that is all they are.
JEWSON: Sir Des Champs, €10 e/w @ 12/1 (Boylesports shop)
Another bet I’m reasonably happy with. Always the fear in the back of my mind that he’ll run in the RSA though. If he runs here he wins.
WORLD HURDLE: Thousand Stars, €10 e/w @ 8/1 (Paddy Power online)
Hopefully Willie Mullins will let him take his chance, would be the main danger to Big Bucks imo, but hard to see him beating him.
WORLD HURDLE: Big Bucks, €50 win @ 4/5 NRNB (Ladbrokes online)
He’ll face his toughest challenge yet of Thousand Stars runs and I’ll be happy to see the two of them jump the last together. If he turns up in the same form as previous years it’s very hard to see him beaten.
COUNTY HURDLE: Moon Dice, €10 e/w @ 14/1 (Paddy Power online)
The money continues to come for this fella, he’ll be one of the gambles of the week I’d say. He was desperately unlucky in the Greatwood and hopefully justice will be done this time around.
ALBERT BARTLETT: Sea Of Thunder, €10 e/w @ 16/1 (Paddy Power online)
Mount Benbulben frightens me big time and I’m convinced the winner will come from those two. I’d forget about Sea Of ‘run behind Boston Bob, ground and trip were all wrong. We’ll see a different horse come March.
GOLD CUP: Quito De La Roque, €10 win @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes online)
Non runner, I think Colm Murphy has really messed this horse up this season.
He rushed him for Down Royal where he was an unbelievably fortunate winner. He ran no race in the Lexus and now is probably out for the year. This year was his big chance and the 3 mile chasing division could look a lot stronger next year, particularly in Ireland.GRAND ANNUAL: De Boitron, €10 e/w @ 25/1 (Paddy Power online)
Happy with this. The money has been steady in the past couple of weeks and is generally 12/1 now.
I’m still hoping Realt Dubh will make it KF, hopefully he’ll be out soon enough. The Ryaniar trip should be perfect and he’s closely matched to Medermit on form
Realt Dubh is entered at Leopardstown on Sunday
I feel compelled to have €10 win on next year’s Gold Cup winner Sir Des Champs in the RSA @ 5/1.
Also €5 e/w Fruity O’Rooney @ 33/1 in the Festival Handicap Chase.
I’ll give my reasoning later.
We’ve lost our ante-post bets on Peddlers Cross THM.
You’ve been unlucky with your book.
I’m just hoping Grands Crus does not jump ship now.
Value Is EverythingIt would be some kick in the teeth if he hacked up in the Jewson
If Sir Des Champs runs in the Jewson he’ll win imo, I think he’s a fair horse and First Lieutenant will have his work cut out to beat him in the RSA.
Fruity O’Rooney won a decent handicap at Kempton after Christmas and was unlucky last time out, although may not have won. Off the same mark at Cheltenham, he’ll have a great chance if he makes the cut. If not, money back.
Time to back Monksland in the Neptune. Boston Bob going for the Albert Bartlett apparently and the 7/1 with PP is too good to miss. He’s done nothing wrong so far bar run out in a point to point, but he’s looked quite straightforward this season, with a smooth win over the smart Lyreen Legend last time out. Is it just me or does the Neptune look the weakest novice hurdle of the meeting
€10 e/w Monksland @ 7/1 (PP, NRNB)
Just went through the Supreme again now that the five day decs are out and one horse sticks out like a sore thumb at the price.
Call me crazy but I can’t let Divapour go unbacked at 80/1 with PP. He’s unbeaten over hurdles in France, winning all three of its races well. They have been on heavy ground but he’s won on good going on the flat. I must admit I don’t know much about the French form but they’d hardly send him over for nothing. Same owner as Makfi, I doubt this is an 80/1 chance. 100/1 available elsewhere but I don’t have accounts with those bookies so 80/1 will do I suppose
€5 e/w Divapour @ 80/1, Supreme Novices, Paddy Power nrnb
Just went through the Supreme again now that the five day decs are out and one horse sticks out like a sore thumb at the price.
Call me crazy but I can’t let Divapour go unbacked at 80/1 with PP. He’s unbeaten over hurdles in France, winning all three of its races well. They have been on heavy ground but he’s won on good going on the flat. I must admit I don’t know much about the French form but they’d hardly send him over for nothing. Same owner as Makfi, I doubt this is an 80/1 chance. 100/1 available elsewhere but I don’t have accounts with those bookies so 80/1 will do I suppose
€5 e/w Divapour @ 80/1, Supreme Novices, Paddy Power nrnb
Formerly with the Aga Khan over the flat, now with Matthieu Offenstadt, unbeaten over hurdles, all at Pau, form of last win wasn’t too bad. Could be an interesting contender, the French don’t come over for nothing! (Baracouda, The Fellow!)
Someone on Betfair seems to think that Realt Dubh will be declared for the Champion Chase tomorrow. 25 nrnb wouldn’t do any harm if you’re following the horse anyway. I backed him at the same price for last years Arkle and thought he ran very well. He’d obviously run better with a bit of juice in the ground. He’s not a horse i’d back for this festival, but he definitely has a bit of quality.
CS seems to be very excited about Askanna and at the prices I can see why.
National Hunt Nov Chase:
€5 e/w Askanna @ 40/1 (Paddy Power nrnb)Thanks for that Superman. He’d have place chances in the Champion Chase but I think he’s tailor-made for the Ryanair. Hopefully that’s where he’ll go.
Interesting stuff Rich, hopefully he won’t go home empty handed!
Cheltenham Ante-Post:
SUPREME: Dylan Ross, €5 e/w @ 25/1……………….now 33/1
SUPREME: Divapour, €5 e/w @ 80/1 NRNB…………….now 66/1
ARKLE: Peddlers Cross, €20 win @ 8/1……………..NR
JLT HCAP: Fruity O’Rooney, €5 e/w @ 33/1 NRNB……..now 25/1
NEPTUNE: Mount Benbulben, €5 win @ 20/1…………..NR
NEPTUNE: Monksland, €10 e/w @ 7/1 NRNB……………now 6/1
RSA: First Lieutenant, €10 e/w @ 20/1…………….now 5/1
RSA: Sir Des Champs, €10 win @ 5/1 NRNB…………..now 9/2
JEWSON: Sir Des Champs, €10 e/w @ 12/1……………now 9/2
WORLD HURDLE: Thousand Stars, €10 e/w @ 8/1……….now 9/1
WORLD HURDLE: Big Bucks, €50 win @ 4/5 NRNB……….now 8/13
COUNTY: Moon Dice, €10 e/w @ 14/1………………..now 8/1
ALBERT BARTLETT: Sea Of Thunder, €10 e/w @ 16/1……now 7/1
GOLD CUP: Quito De La Roque, €10 win @ 25/1……….NR
GRAND ANNUAL: De Boitron, €10 e/w @ 25/1………….now 10/1
He rushed him for Down Royal where he was an unbelievably fortunate winner. He ran no race in the Lexus and now is probably out for the year. This year was his big chance and the 3 mile chasing division could look a lot stronger next year, particularly in Ireland.
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