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A good card at Punchestown tomorrow with decent novices on show over hurdles and fences. One of the more under the radar novice chasers this season, who could make an impact in Grade 1’s later in the coming months in my opinion, is The Storyteller. His jumping on debut was excellent, very fast over his fences, and I could see him gaining lengths on favourite Invitation Only who has been a little bit unconvincing, though he was impressive in beating the talented Any Second Now last time out.
The form of the Storyteller’s victory has worked out well, with Livelovelaugh and Sutton Manor both winning next time, and he readily put them to the sword. There are plenty of dangers here, so much depth in this Grade 3, and I was hoping to get The Storyteller at a little bigger than 7/2, but that price will do for me. It will be disappointing if he can’t at least go close.
In the 13.35, a 3m handicap chase, Clontarf catches the eye at 14/1. He was backed into favouritism at Fairyhouse two weeks ago in a similar contest but could only manage to plug on for sixth. However, he made a very bad mistake about a mile from home and had to expend quite a lot of effort to regain his place. H’es worth a small play tomorrow at 14/1.
In the maiden hurdle I’m surprised Warlike Intent has opened up at 7/2. He was very impressive bumper winner at Clonmel and his main rivals here have questions to answer. Impact Factor has been trimmed from a first show of 5/2 into 13/8 and at that price I’m happy to leave him. He’s ran behind some very useful sorts and may bum into another tomorrow. Kesselring makes his debut for Mullins, having been rated 70 odd for John Gosden on the flat. I think at the prices, Warlike Intent is much the most solid bet here.
Selections:
Punchestown 13:00 – The Storyteller 1 pt win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair SB)
Punchestown 13:35 – Clontarf 0.5 pt win @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes)
Punchestown 14:45 – Warlike Intent 1 pt win @ 7/2 (B365)+7
Will keep this short as am posting via phone. One NR from last post returns 1 pt.
Mossback appeals at 4/1 in the G3 nov chase at Naas tomorrow. He ran a fine race when fourth behind three useful horses in Invitation Only, Koshari and The Storyteller at Punchestown last time. I’d expect him to improve tomorrow as 3m at Naas should be more his thing than 2m 4f around Punchestown where he was obviously struggling for pace to go with the front three but was not dusgraced. I rate him a better horse than Moulin A Vent and Livelovelaugh while Jury Duty will struggle to givs him 8 lbs.
Selection
2.20 Naas – Mossback 1 pt win 4/1 (B365)
+7
Mossback fell at the last when holding every chance. Moving on…
Spider Web appeals in today’s National trial at Punchestown. He’s effectively up a stone from his Leopardstown win as he races from a pound out of the handicap, but there was a lot to like about the win. He raced very wide into the straight giving away quite a bit of ground yet still readily pulled away under pressure over the 2m 4f trip, doing his best work close homd. This is a significant step up in trip but he gave the impression he will improve for further. He’s in off 9-10 today and at 12/1 is worth betting on his stamina.
Selection
4.20 Naas – Spider Web 0.5 pts e/w 12/1 (BV & WH)
+6
Spider Web jumped and traveled well but didn’t see out the trip. I think he’ll be capable of winning again off his current mark over 2m 4f – 3m.
Four horses of major interest today at Fairyhouse. I’ve dipped in and out here with this thread when time has allowed this season and going for broke today with a whopping 1 pt e/w on all four selections…
15:15 – Miles To Memphis 1 pt e/w 22/1 (Ladbrokes, 1/5 odds 5 places)
I think this horse is well overpriced. Since placing on the flat in the Irish Cesarewich last year he has run in four handicap hurdles. Having placed in the first two he then went to the ultra competitive €100k Coral Hurdle at Leopardstown where he was a staying on 6th of 24. His latest effort was when 5th in the Punchestown Pertemps Qualifier, where he was checked at the third last which caused him to lose a lot of momentum. He stuck go his task well enough after that to suggest there’s a decent pot in him and today’s race is not as competitive as those events.
15:50 – Forge Meadow 1 pt e/w 12/1 (generally)
Latest effort at Gowran she gave Identity Thief weight and a beating. She now receives weight from that rival yet is over twice the price of him. Her previous effort when just touched off by Sandsend looks good now also with that horse being in the process of running a big race in the County Hurdld before suffering a fatal injury. She should love today’s conditions and again the price is much too big for me.
16:25 – Coney Island e/w 11/2 (generally)
Pulled up last time when obviously amiss, connections decided to swerve Cheltenham and they can be rewarded today. Un De Sceaux had a hard race at Cheltenham while Doctor Phoenix has been very busy of late. This course and distance was the scene of Coney Island’s biggest success in the Drinmore last season and he can notch another big win today.
17:00 – Folsom Blue e/w 10/1 (B365, 1/4 odds, 5 places)
The Irish Grand National is going to be a hell of a slog with forecast heavy ground, but that will hold no fears of connections of Folsom Blue. Since joining Gordon Elliott at the start of the season, this 11 year old has had a very good season, most recently winning the Punchestown National Trial. He’s one you can be sure will handle conditions and stay the trip.
-2
Good luck all!
Evening THM………very good analysis,pleasure to read.
Folsom Blue…..Thats the sort of luck we can all do without,desperately unlucky not to get up.
Not the first bit of misfortune reading through,I can see that changing in the near future,it always does.
A question if I may….Augusta Kate…..couple recent schooling sessions,both on the track,any Idea what the plan might be for this one,get the feeling she is being laid out for something ?
Stick with it.
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