THM Goes Jumping 17-18

[thehorsesmouth]

I started a thread last season which yielded a profit but didn’t contain too many selections, as due to multiple factors I haven’t been on the forum much over the past year or so. So hopefully I’ll be on with a few selections now and again, more regularly than last season.

Last season’s thread began with an opening post that put up Oscar Knight, and he’s a selection again here. He runs in the 2.55 at Naas, a 2m 4f handicap hurdle, off a mark of 116. He’s rated 20 lbs higher over fences, and while there’s often a reason for the disparity between hurdles and chase marks (a horse just being better over one or the other), I think he probably has something in hand of that rating. He’s been plying his trade over fences for the most part recently but had a blowout over an inadequate 2m last month at Punchestown, where he ran on into 10th from a long way back. The fact they’re staying over hurdles for another run would suggest to me that they feel can take this prize, which is well worth targeting with a first prize of almost €30k. 9/1 is too big.

I’ve two other selections on the card. The 2m 3f maiden hurdle is as strong a maiden as you’ll see. Pallasator brings high class flat form to the table, while Next Destination, Someday and Paloma Blue all showed up well in bumpers last season. When I looked at the card first I expected to be putting up Paloma Blue but at the prices I think he’s short enough at 11/4. Someday at 10/1 looks the bet to me. He was well fancied for the Champion Bumper before being a late non runner, before running 5th in the Punchestown equivalent (Paloma Blue 2nd). He had a run over hurdles after Punchestown which was a disappointment but I’m willing to forgive that effort and take a chance on him tomorrow.

My final selection is less imaginative: Meri Devie in the Fishery Lane Hurdle at 7/4. I thought she ran a lot better than her finishing position suggested when fourth in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown in February, when she was very keen, on only her second hurdles start. She built on that with a solid effort when third at the Punchestown festival and I think she has more scope for improvement than favorite Ex Patriot.

Selections:

Naas 13:10 – Meri Devie 1 pt win @ 7/4 (general)
Naas 13:45 – Someday 0.5 pts e/w @ 10/1 (B365)
Naas 14:55 – Oscar Knight 1 pt win @ 9/1 (PP)

-3

[Venture to Cognac]

Good luck Tommy, be good to have you back.

Totally agree with Oscar Knight, and he’s 100% getting backed tomorrow. I went with him for The Paddy Power last year, and only a late blunder stopped him from winning. He looks to have a solid chance tomorrow.

I like that Hurdle as well, but torn between Pallasator and Paloma Blue, so will be sitting out definitely. Really looking forward to this one without a bet, and I’ll cheer on Someday for you.

[thehorsesmouth]

Thanks Bobby. Best of luck with Oscar, I know you were on him in the Paddy Power where he did remarkably well to place third considering the howler he made down the back straight. The maiden hurdle really is a cracker, I’d be disappointed if the top three or four didn’t at least take part in Grade 1 races later in the season.

[Gingertipster]

Welcome back to DLAP, THM.
I’ll be looking in to see what a good judge thinks of good Irish racing.

Value Is Everything

[thehorsesmouth]

Thanks GT

[joliff]

Good call with Oscar Knight.

[Venture to Cognac]

Happy Days Tommy, and that 9’s made the difference for me today, was badly needed.

[thehorsesmouth]

Thanks Joliff and VTC.

There was never too much worry for Oscar Knight as he traveled into the straight like the winner and although the winning margin was reduced late on, he won very snugly. They mentioned Christmas and the Thyestes as possible targets and they’ll surely want to right the wrongs of last year’s Paddy Power. He’ll definitely be on my shortlist for that.

Meri Devie was much too keen for her own good but still may have won but for some traffic problems between the last two flights. It was not Paul Townend’s best ride imo, but the winner staged on well to hold her in the finish. The market support for Duca De Thaix was notable, and though he ultimately could only finish a well beaten third, he was going very nicely into the business end of the race and there could be more to come from him.

Someday was another who was a little too keen throughout the race, but he kept on well for second in the maiden hurdle. The winning performance from Next Destination was the most impressive of the day as he went right away in the finish for a wide margin victory. The other maiden hurdle was won easily by the smart Red Jack, with the Royal Bond nominated as a potential target for him.

Naas 13:10 – Meri Devie 1 pt win @ 7/4 (general) 2nd
Naas 13:45 – Someday 0.5 pts e/w @ 10/1 (B365) 2nd RETURNS 1.5 PTS
Naas 14:55 – Oscar Knight 1 pt win @ 9/1 (PP) 1ST RETURNS 10 PTS

+8.5

[thehorsesmouth]

One selection tomorrow, at a massive price, is Flaxen Flare in the Lismullen Hurdle. At his peak he was rated 150, which is just four shy of Apples Jade, and a run in the mid 140’s could see him competitive here. Apples Jade was below her best on her first couple of starts last season which gives me some hope, while Jers Girl and Monksland may not be capable of anything higher than a mid 140’s effort at this stage either. I’m fully aware Flaxen Flare is up against it, and he is unlikely to rediscover the form that saw him reach his peak rating, but odds of 100/1 are too big. The 100/1 is only available with Sky Bet, who I don’t use myself, and not sure how many use them, so will put up 80/1 with Bet 365 for the purposes of this thread.

Navan 13:40 – Flaxen Flare 0.5 pts win @ 80/1 (B365)

+8

[Venture to Cognac]

Wee bit disappointing today, never really looked likely, but should be good for going forward. What do you think for him? Staying over hurdles is a possibility, but I could see a Troytown entry.

Talking of The Troytown, I see General Principle entered up over hurdles at Clonmel this week. Interesting.

[thehorsesmouth]

Yeah a little underwhelming, but I suppose I was hopeful the big guns would under-perform which wasn’t the case. A Troytown entry is interesting, but there are others there I’d prefer, in particular Acapella Bourgeois off 149. He’d be likely to get his ground there and trip and track to suit. If Mullins can get half as much improvement out of his as he has Total Recall he could go off short. I see Apache Stronghold holds an entry too, would love to see him back, and off 147 you’d have to give him a chance if he went here. Loved him as a novice.

[thehorsesmouth]

One selection at Clonmel tomorrow – Champagne West in the Clonmel Oil. Even though it’s his first race of the season I’m surprised he’s not favourite as both Balko Des Flos and A Toi Phil were slightly underwhelming at Gowran just 12 days ago. Champagne West reached a very high level of form last season, winning the Thyestes before being outclassed in Grade 1 company on his latest two starts. I think soft ground is important to him and he’ll get that tomorrow.

Selection:

Clonmel 14:20 – Champagne West 1 pt win @ 11/4 (general)

+7

[Venture to Cognac]

Good luck with him Tommy, still owe that boy plenty, and he played a big part in my Gold Cup Book last year. I still have his Thyestes win as the best performance of last season, it was dynamite.

Can’t call this race, so I’ll just stick with Tiger Roll at 20’s, just in case he’s staying the graded route, and not Grand National bound. If he can’t do it, I’ll be cheering old Champagne home.

[thehorsesmouth]

Decent card at Punchestown tomorrow and the most interesting horse form a betting perspective for me is Cosmos Moon in the maiden hurdle. He ran in one of the best bumpers of last season behind Red Jack and made an encouraging hurdling debut behind Midnight Stroll at Galway. I think he will likely come on plenty for that and could be quite smart.

Selections:

Punchestown 15:25 – Cosmos Moon 1 pt win @ 3/1 (B365)

[thehorsesmouth]

Two more selections tomorrow. In the 2m Novice Chase, Calino D’Airy looks a bet at 7/2. He didn’t achieve as much as some of these over hurdles but Tombstone was a fortunate winner last time (Gilt Shadow still held every chance when coming down) and has never been the most convincing for me. Brelade is general second favorite and has ran well in defeat to the likes of Petit Mouchoir and Footpad without getting near them. It’s been a long time since he got his head in front so preference is for de Bromhead’s charge. Calino D’Airy has been professional in notching two chase wins and hopefully he can bring up the hat trick tomorrow.

In the 2m handicap hurdle, Light That could be worth a go at a price. His form figures do not read too well but he was in fine form on the flat over the summer and ran a cracker over course and distance when second to Western Boy in April. He runs off the same mark here and at 20/1 is overpriced. I also think there is some evidence he may be better going right handed.

Selections:

Punchestown 12:30 Light That 0.5 pt e/w @ 20/1 (PP, BF Sportbook)
Punchestown 13:05 Calino D’Airy 1 pt win @ 7/2 (general)

+4

[Venture to Cognac]

Tommy, I’m sorry, you’ve put up 8 horses so far, and I’m on 3 of them. I know we’re often on the same wavelength, but FFS lol

All I can say is I hope Song Light is another Oscar Knight for us lol

[thehorsesmouth]

At those sort of prices we don’t need to be right too often thankfully Bobby

Heading to Punchestown tomorrow, hoping to see Faugheen back to something like his best.

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