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There’s an interesting beginners chase at Cork today, the one that interests me is Gordon Elliotts Squouateur. He hasn’t been put in a race all season but will need to produce a better effort today in order to get into a handicap at Cheltenham. Early market moves can often be misleading but they would suggest he’ll be off today.
Selections:
Squouateur 1 pt 12/1 B365 (Cork 3.05)
+21.5
No look with the past three selection, hoping for better today. The big race at Punchestown is the 2.10, a novice hurdle won in recent years by the likes of Vautour and Douvan. Willie Mullins bids to maintain his winning record in the race with Crack Mome but it’s his Thurles victim, Coquine D’Aunou, that interests me. She looked to have more to give when chasing him home, and got off the mark next time out with a smooth win at Limerick. She could well outrun her odds of 25/1.
Selection:
Coquine D’Aunou 1 pt 25/1 Various (2.10 Punchestown)
+20.5
No joy with Coquine D’Aunou on Saturday but she ran quite well, outpaced as they quickened to two out, having been short of room, but stayed on well again towards the finish.
Tomorrow at Thurles, Irish racing fans are treated to a decent midweek card. The Kinloch Bray is the feature race and Smashing looks the bet at 7/1. His forms figures since moving to Mouse Morris’ yard don’t inspire confidence – 6/6 first time out at Punchestown behind Sadlers Risk and then 12th of 13 in the Lexus, where he ran well for a long way.
The horse is at his best over trips from 2m to 2m 4f on soft ground, it’s pretty simple, and hopefully they’ve shelved a return to 3m. His form figures over 2m 4f on ground described as soft or worse are 331111. The first ‘3’ was in his first chase, where he placed behind Don Poli and Wounded Warrior, who went on to run first and third in that season’s RSA. The second ‘3’ was a close up third in the Powers Gold Cup.
I’d have question marks over the opposition. Sub Lieutenant has show vastly improved form since joining Henry de Bromhead’s stable but comes here off a break, having had three fairly quick runs beforehand. Black Hercules has been woeful so far this season while I’m not convinced Sizing John wants this trip.
Selection:
Smashing 2 pt 7/1 Various (2.15 Thurles)
+18.5
Smashing ran a shocker at Thurles, after drifting out to 10/1 having been well supported into 5/1 in the morning.
There’s a good card at Navan tomorrow and I have two selections, one long and one short. Let’s start with the short. Acapella Bourgeois is fancied to overturn Arbe De Vie in the beginners chase. Arbe De Vie was given an impossible task when beaten into second last time out, held up about 30 lengths off the pace. He is almost certainly better than the bare form but even so he’s short enough at 6/4.
Acapella Bourgeois was himself slightly disappointing lat time at Leopardstown, but the form of that third to Bleu Et Rouge and Gangster is quite strong and even a reproduction of that should see him go close. I think he is capable of better and should prove tough to beat at 9/4.
My other selection is a bit of a flyer but I’ve reasons to think he’s overpriced. Alisier D’Irlande reverts to hurdles, taking on Jezki, Renneti, Sure Reef and Tombstone, as well as Carlingford Lough and Indian Monsoon.
On the face of it Alisier D’Irlande is a hard horse to fancy, but for me there are fewer question marks about him than his opposition. Jezki – has his first run since spring 2015. Renneti – first run over hurdles since autumn 2015. Tombstone – first run since spring 2016. Sure Reef – just second start after a three year absence. There are huge question marks over these four horses and all have had problems of some sort or another.
Alisier D’Irlande has run three times this seaon. First time out he tired badly over two miles at Naas. He was then stepped up to 2m 4f and was beaten when unseating two out. Two miles is the horse’s game and he ran a much better race last time at Leopardstown behind Douvan, ultimately finishing last of five but showing much more life. How often do we see it at the start of the season: race fit horse goes off clear in front, better fancied horses in need of the run follow in behind and never land a blow. That’s the dream scenario and although unlikely I think 25/1 is probably worth a go.
Selections:
Acapella Bourgeois 2 pt 9/4 Various (3.20 Punchestown)
Alisier D’Irlande 1 pt 25/1 Various (1.05 Punchestown)+15.5
Smashing ran a shocker at Thurles, after drifting out to 10/1 having been well supported into 5/1 in the morning.
Looked as if he just ran away with the jock. First two just ignored him. Not sure what Enright has done to get these rides?
Alisier D’Irlande was heaily supported into 6/1 but finished last of six having led for much of the way. Arbe De Vie was once again given quite a bit to do and Acapella Bourgeois had a freebie up front, and had enough in reserve to hold on, giving a 3.5 pt profit for the day.
+22
The two big Coral handicaps at Leopardstown are of major interest tomorrow. In the chase I think Space Cadet is a likely sort who could have plenty in hand off a mark of 133, while in the hurdle, which looks the more competitive race, After Rain is the bet.
Selections:
Space Cadet 1 pt 10/1 Various (14.40 Leopardstown)
After Rain 1 pt 12/1 Paddy Power (3.10 Leopardstown)+20
The betting for the Woodlands Park Novice Chase at Naas tomorrow has me slightly confused, as I expected both A Genie In Abottle and Martello Tower to be near the head of the market. Instead we have Haymount, Anibale Fly and Balko Des Flos the front three in the betting and none of those three appeal o me as the type made for this race.
The three miles at Naas is a fair old drag and a serious stamina test for a novice chaser, this is the sort of race I’d expect National Hunt Chase prospects to emerge from rather than RSA horses normally, and the two I’ve mentioned are likely types for this test imo.
Selections:
A Genie In Abottle 1 pt 11/2 Various (2.35 Naas)
Martello Tower 1 pt 8/1 Coral (2.35 Naas)+18
No joy today as A Genie In Abottle just edged out of it by Anibale Fly. He looks a nice type for something like the Irish National. Thoughts on tomorrow’s action at Leoparstown below, I’ve a few selections so will keep things short:
Melon makes his long awaited debut in the opener but at around 1/3 it’s surely worth taking a chance on one that has shown some smart form to date, Broken Soul. He bumped into a few nice types in bumpers and finally got his head in front in Down Royal last time, he is no world beater but has solid form and bar Melon and Tony Martin’s horse, who stayed on nicely into fourth behind Meri Devie, there is little in the race.
In the second, I’m happy to take on Lets Dance. She was mightily impressive last time but I’m not sure if the form is reliable. Joey Sasa has shown good form over hurdles to date, finishing second to Brelade and Cilaos Emery before beating Barra who has since franked the form. Monalee is another to consider but at the prices I prefer Joey Sasa at 6/1.
In the Irish Arkle Bleu Et Reuge is the bet for me. I thought he won with plenty in hand at the track last time. Identity Thief needs to bounce back while I wouldn’t fear the other two.
Selections:
Broken Soul 1 pt 5/1 Betfair SB (1.30 Leopardstown)
Joey Sasa 1 pt 6/1 Coral (2.00 Leopardstown)
Bleu Et Reuge 1 pt 4/1 (2.30 Leopardstown)+15
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