- This topic has 352 replies, 21 voices, and was last updated 19 years, 5 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
No good moaning about jockeys but the ride on Miss Adelaide was not good why Hills attempted to stay inside and get trapped on the bend suprised me going the best at the time imo. anyway 2 points down on the day<br>so L.S.P. now +34.85
just 1 tuesday <br>330 Ling Chimali
seagull
chilali 1:30 ling <br>is this one of yours ( A . Berry 2yo + 3yo horses)regards<br>Lineform
Apologies if I’ve missed something but I can’t see why Chimali qualifies as boyle jr is 4 yo + handicaps and this race is 3yo+.
Hope I’ve not intruded but I agree with linform regarding chilali 1:30 ling.
It must be me ‘cos I can’t see you getting 2 wrong ;)
Cheers
Des
Des<br>i also agree with you , if you look a little back in thread i had the same point with same trainer (jr boyle 4yo + h/c)and race conditions this is for 3yo +<br>i don’ mean to pick holes for the sake of it but i want to get this right for myself as i have backed every selection so for that i think is a selection from the oringinal list on page one and i am well if profit so many thanks to seagull for this thread it has given me a new past time , i lke the trainers method as i can play about with  RSB software of i have over 15 years data to look at  .by the way <br>i back chilali @ at over 40.0 as i back all  selections whatever the price, so if i have it wrong oops!<br>regards<br>lineform<br>
(Edited by lineform at 12:50 pm on Mar. 1, 2005)
Lineform,
I hope we’re both right, I managed 50.00 on Betdaq for Chilali (also got 12.00 for the place although I know we’re only doing wins) so fingers crossed.
I am not fault finding for the sake of it with Seagull, either, as we all miss things at times when we’re in a hurry etc.
Cheers
Des
just had a quick look on RSB<br>boyle jr does quite well with all age horses anyway <br>last six years upto end of 2004 11 -73 15% sr for 120% lsp<br>also i note RSB does not have 3yo + h/c categorie , it has a 4yo + h/c categories . may be what seagull means is jr boyles h/c runners that are 4 + year old running in an open age race <br>and not races for 4yo + as we are thinking<br>regards<br>lineform
des<br>the good thing about a method like this is the big prices you can get about the bigger priced selections like the 50.0 you got ( i will have to join betdaq), even though it is like swimming against the tide at times , if we keep on trying to get best price i don,t think we will do to bad overall<br>i have noticed some of are winning selections reduce in price though so when you see 44.0 and 50.0 about a selection you do worry, saying that some have drfted like the 28/1 shot we had<br>regards<br>lineform <br>
Going back to jr boyles, lineform, you could be right but Seagull’s criteria for other trainers i.e. muir w, say 4.yo and older horses in handicaps which is self explanatary, I think, whereas 4yo+ handicaps gives the impression of those races only.
Perhaps Seagull can put us out of our confusion with an explanation of what he means.
Cheers
Des
Yes true <br>i think your right it hasto be 4yo +h/c . <br>i thought you would collect on place before not a bad run from chiali<br>regards
Sorry Guys you are of course correct when I was going through the list the night before on the net I found just 1 horse that was of course CHILALI from A Berry and NOT Chimali.<br>Re the prices Im giving away some secrets here but a customer of mine told me about it ages ages ago.<br>Any horse over 5/1 you can often beat befair/ backand lay etc.<br>get a Superodds account <br>they pay 1 roll over the odds.<br>so a 2/1 is settled at 9/4 fair enough<br>5/1 is settled at 11/2<br> but when you get a 28/1 winner they pay the next price up which was 33/1. Star Fern was a selection on this system  just before I started posting the method up here that horse won at 66/1 the next price up they have was 80/1 and thats what that paid on superodds.<br>80/1 becomes 100/1!
<br>this may look like some spam for superodds but Im just a customer. honest guv!
anyway we lost a point tues so now l.s.p. now +33.85 with superodds that is actually 24 points more but its all at s.p.
re the age groups I use rsb pro and these are the ages they list  I printed off the method and re checked it but its something Ive been doing for a number of years <br>the racing post just use 2 y.o and 3 yo+ age groups.<br>Hope that clears it up.
<br>   ÂÂÂ
<br>wed 2 march
225 southwell     rocky reppin<br>300             castanza<br>                gypsy fair
335            henry tun<br>               scary knight
(Edited by Seagull at 8:41 am on Mar. 2, 2005)
no winners wed so down to L.S.P. +28.85<br>few shorter priced ones thurs<br>140 sound that alarm<br>210 melvino<br> best call<br>410 rancho cucomonga<br>440 perfidous
Seagull,
Regarding the 2.10 I get Jostle as well (loder d.r 3 yo and older horses only).
Also it’s Best Game, are the cold early mornings affecting you ;)
Des
Des<br>i had this trouble last week , as it says on the list 3yo and older horse only<br>but i noticed seagull never selected a loder 3yo so i checked it out on rsb pro and he does not do to well with 3yo , <br>so what i have done on my print out of seagulls method is put a ‘+ ‘ next to 3yo after loders name <br>so i just back loders 3yo + older horses and i seem now to select same loder horses as seagull, but yes it does look as if we should be selecting 3yo as well according to instructions on list but i think is a mistake<br>regards<br>Lineform
just looked on rsb pro<br>loder d.r <br>last 6 years up to 2004 end <br>3yo races 2-9 22% sr = – 44% lsp<br>3y0 + horses 9-28 32 % sr = + 36% ls lsp<br>that said 2004 was a losing year for 3yo + a good strike rate of 33% with a lose of – 38% ( 5-15 33%sr =-38% lsp) this at ling aw of course based over last 4 years as he had no runners in this catergorie the two years before that, i know seagull likes to take last 6 year data<br>regards<br>Lineform
Lineform /Des<br>I will be away on holiday next week and then Cheltenham :cool: the following week. Do any of you two wish to do the selections form Monday for 2 weeks and the l.p. +/-  tally for me as I wont be able to do them.
friday 4/3 no selections
(Edited by Seagull at 9:49 am on Mar. 4, 2005)
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.