- This topic has 42 replies, 10 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 6 months ago by
.
- Posts
- Total Posts 17716
For a long time now I have felt ‘value’ is an over-rated concept, and it often leads the less experienced punter to concentrate on prices at the expense of actually learning to figure which is the best horse in the race and the circumstances.
I know Carvills is doing very well on his value oriented thread on here, though I’m sure that owes as much to his ability to pick winners as it does to obtain value prices, but the object of this exercise is (hopefully) to demonstrate that a profit can be turned without depending on prices.
As the antithesis to value, all selections will be forecast at 2/1 or less and all bets 1 point at sp, so while I would never expect to reach the heady heights of some other threads on here, ! would hope to do well enough to prove a poiint, as much to myself as well as to anyone else. Even if I do, there are unlikely to be more than half a dozen selections a week, so noboby’s going to retire on the strength of it, but hopefully it will be an interesting expeiment for as long as it lasts.
If it does, I might even adopt the signature "Value isn’t everything" <!– s:lol: –>
<!– s:lol: –>- Total Posts 17716
3 selections for Saturday:
2.40 Winc ARTURIO L
3.40 Winc KATCHIT w4/5
2.25 Asc KAUTO STAR w4/11+0.16pts WOW!!
- Total Posts 17716
2.40 Nav AITMATOV L
cum. -0.84pts
Good luck with this RH.
I’m not a value ‘aholic’ by any means, but even putting up selections at 2/1 or less might mean you’re getting ‘value’. If a selection’s true price should be (say) 13/8 then 2/1 is fantastic value.
Man Utd at around 5/4 on BF yesterday, proved to be wonderful value. So I’m not sure what you’re going to be proving here, maybe that you can still show a profit betting at the shorter end of the market?
Will watch with interest
reet hard,
IMO it’s not good fortune its a miracle that you will require.
If you trade in the betting market at the wrong price, that is below worth, the only possible way to profit is if your strike-rate is so good the prices are not relevant, something like a VDW 80-90% consistent win rate.
I used to correspond with a good semi-pro backer in the late 80’s and he always said, ‘If you are getting more winners than losers then you are likely to be losing money.’
Prof. Frank George, ‘A Better Bet’ (he was at the time Head of Department of Cybernetics at Brunel University – a real number cruncher) wrote:
"When you do bet, it must be a Value Bet. Once you have selected the likely winner it is essential to assign your own ‘price’ to it – the odds the horse should be placed at in your opinion. If those odds are, for example, 3-1 and the board shows 4-1, the bet is a value bet – the majority are giving you a bigger margin than you expected – to yield a higher return than average. If your independent choice happens to coincide with the majority opinion and the odds move much below your assessment of the ‘right price’, do not bet. The potential profit is not worth the risk."
Having said all that, it will be interesting to see the long-term outcome.
I had a look at the Lingfield non-hcaps tomorrow, Feb 18, in the opinion of the Adrian Massey ratings and these two look value:
1.55 No 3 at better than 13/2
2.25 No 3 at better than 2/1- Total Posts 17716
Thanks for the comments guys.
TBH I’m just as mystified as you are as to how it will all turn out, but the restrictions are a necessity or the whole thread would be meaningless.
Hopefully it will be a worthwhile exercise, either way.I wonder if it’s possible to create a tissue and then bet something you fancy because its actual price is worse than your tissue price.
Anti-value if you will!
- Total Posts 17716
Maybe,db? Both of my winners were odds-on.
9.20W A Dream Come True w2/1
cum +1.16pts
Both of my winners were odds-on.
Both were "value" bets in MY opinion
and all the best with this thread reet- Total Posts 17716
1.50 Nc UNOWATIMEEN L
4.50Fh SNOWY MORNING Lcum -0.84pts
- Total Posts 17716
3.50 Leics. SHERRIF ROSCOE L
cum: -1.84 pts
- Total Posts 17716
I hadn’t realised when I started this thread the paucity of horses that would qualify for consideration as bets under the prescribed parameters – on a busy Saturday, 6 meetings only produce 12 runners that fall within the criteria.
I’ll carry on with the thread, but it looks like being a longer process than I originally envisaged. 3 for today:1.45 Km WORKING TITLE w8/13
3.25 Km STELLENBOSCH L
4.40 kM CLASSIC FIDDLE Lcum -3.22pts
Reet hard
Without wishing to either gatecrash your thread or start yet another lengthy debate on value…
I think you are correct that some punters may overcomplicate matters and try to find big priced horses that may well not represent value. However, I think you are mnissing the point.
What you are trying to do is find the most likely winner. Whether you are successful with your punting on them will entirely depend on the prices you get.
Your running total to date would be showing a profit if you had obtained slightly better prices. This is all the Value concept is saying – price is everything.
- Total Posts 17716
TDK
That’s one point of view. The opposing one is that it’s no good getting ‘value’ if one can’t pick winners in the first place.
Early days yet in what looks to be a very slow process; roll on the flat, and 5/6 meetings a day.2.30 Chp WEST END ROCKER
2.40 Snd BEAU MICHEL
<!– s:lol: –>
and all the best with this thread reet
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.